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Am I overlooking something, or would that mean it’s super easy for a rational participant to make money?
by ManuelKiessling 9mo ago
Am I overlooking something, or would that mean it’s super
easy for a rational participant to make money?
- gpm 9mo agoPresumably it's a negative expected value game - the company running it has to make money after all... so likely not.
- pyrolistical 9mo agoPrediction markets don’t need a bookie. Each bet has another real person taking the other side. It’s more like the stock market brokerages. They just take a fee on each trade and don’t need to give you a spread over the stock price
- gpm 9mo agoThis subthread is not about prediction markets
- pyrolistical 9mo agoSometimes. Often the sure fire bets have lower returns than the expected annual stock market returns. You have to watch out for resolutions are don’t depend on the truth or could be abused. Examples of markets to avoid are those that a single individual can manipulate. They could take the most profitable side and corrupt the result.
- tpm 9mo agoNot sure what you mean exactly. If you mean the virtual rates, a gambler has no way to make money by placing bets there (while the real probability is 1/8, the odds the betting company is selling are of course much worse). If you mean in a broader context that it is easy to take these people's money, yes and no - there is a long queue of people wanting to do the same and what they want to do is mostly either heavily regulated or illegal.