4 ms·

> You shouldn't wait for the bright future, because its unlikely one is coming for anyone, unless we (the west) thread the needle through one of very few green

> You shouldn't wait for the bright future, because its unlikely one is coming for anyone, unless we (the west) thread the needle through one of very few green paths. This statement both denies and confirms my previous comment. So, which one is it? Should we give up all hope for the bright future or wait for the nebulous "green paths" with a baited breath while surrendering everything we value? If MAGA stands for "Don't wait for the Bright Future" it should be re-lettered as an acronym, ditto if it stands for "Surrender Your Values and Wait for the Tiny Green Paths". I'm afraid to ask about the nature of the TGPs lest I get directed to watch for secret signs to appear in the Orion Nebulae. Just how far can demagogy go? And I'm not blaming you, you are simply channeling the conflicted messaging of MAGA GOP. > We're less-than one generation away from wholesale human labor automation. In a normal world that would be The Bright Future, it would take planned and evil actions to destroy it and turn it into something bad for everyone. > All that matters, literally from the perspective of "the good of your people", is having the foundations in place to participate in the automation explosion that is already happening; or being a forever-serf to the countries that do (at best). Now we get to fear becoming "serfs" in the times of "wholesale human labor automation" which, of course, doesn't need any serfs. And how do you "participate in the automation explosion" by non-participating in the existing international division of labor? Without a shadow of doubt, if we (the US) used China for the importation of cheap commodities, we'd achieve the automation thing much faster and with much less risk. It's simple economics. Conversely, not participating and rallying the world around China, carries the risk of them getting ahead and we being left behind... and isolated. My major problem with MAGA GOP is their brazen disregard for reason, logic and decency, something that could indeed turn the wonders of AI into a tragedy for the US and humanity as a whole. Their strategy is maximum damage to China at any cost for the US and that doesn't make sense at all.

cmxch 10mo ago
> maximum damage to China at any cost for the US The last ship for that sailed when the Tiananmen massacre happened without any consequences to the PRC government. The first opportunity to have saved pain would have been to fully back Chiang Kai-Shek and have put down Mao’s rebellion - when China would have had the most ability to be reformed. If we extend the scope to US allies, the last opportunity would have been for the UK to keep Hong Kong British beyond 1997 - versus letting China renege on its promises.
827a 10mo ago
I think you're critically misunderstanding a lot of this conversation, likely because you're thinking with emotion. I am not arguing that the current US administration is pursuing a coherent policy toward these ends. I am arguing that these are the ends, the only ends, and every policy action is only most-usefully interpreted through the frame of whether it increases or decreases the probability that the US arrives at that end in a good place. Many of the actions the US administration has taken are either irrelevant or negatively correlate with a positive outcome toward these ends. Some actions will have positive outcomes. I am not endorsing or expressing support for any political participant. Your problem with MAGA is their disregard for reason, logic, and decency. Logic and Reason can only be assessed if you understand the full game that is being played. We, as citizens, certainly do not. As for decency; I would place high probability on decency being negatively correlated with the United States having a successful time in the next few decades. In times of chaos, decency is not something to hold in high regard.

cmxch 10mo ago

> maximum damage to China at any cost for the US The last ship for that sailed when the Tiananmen massacre happened without any consequences to the PRC government. The first opportunity to have saved pain would have been to fully back Chiang Kai-Shek and have put down Mao’s rebellion - when China would have had the most ability to be reformed. If we extend the scope to US allies, the last opportunity would have been for the UK to keep Hong Kong British beyond 1997 - versus letting China renege on its promises.

827a 10mo ago

I think you're critically misunderstanding a lot of this conversation, likely because you're thinking with emotion. I am not arguing that the current US administration is pursuing a coherent policy toward these ends. I am arguing that these are the ends, the only ends, and every policy action is only most-usefully interpreted through the frame of whether it increases or decreases the probability that the US arrives at that end in a good place. Many of the actions the US administration has taken are either irrelevant or negatively correlate with a positive outcome toward these ends. Some actions will have positive outcomes. I am not endorsing or expressing support for any political participant. Your problem with MAGA is their disregard for reason, logic, and decency. Logic and Reason can only be assessed if you understand the full game that is being played. We, as citizens, certainly do not. As for decency; I would place high probability on decency being negatively correlated with the United States having a successful time in the next few decades. In times of chaos, decency is not something to hold in high regard.