5 ms·

You shouldn't wait for the bright future, because its unlikely one is coming for anyone, unless we (the west) thread the needle through one of very few green pa

by 827a 9mo ago

You shouldn't wait for the bright future, because its unlikely one is coming for anyone, unless we (the west) thread the needle through one of very few green paths. The endgame we're in now is the sunset of the anthropocene. We're less-than one generation away from wholesale human labor automation. Good will and trade relationships with other countries are inconsequential. All that matters, literally from the perspective of "the good of your people", is having the foundations in place to participate in the automation explosion that is already happening; or being a forever-serf to the countries that do (at best). Sadly, there is no "opt-out" button in this game.

pegasus 9mo ago
If that's what the US administration is aiming for, you'd expect them to bulk up higher education and scientific research, instead of dismantling them. And why won't relationships to other countries matter if we're to enter a terminal crisis period? Look at high-end chip production, it takes a lot of countries to make it all work: German lenses, in Dutch lithography machines employed by Taiwanese fabs, etc.
- 827a 9mo ago
  I never once said that this is what the US administration is aiming for; stop making assumptions. There are individuals in the administration who understand this, and there are individuals who only care about deporting immigrants or disrupting vaccine schedules. There is no unified administration in the United States.
  - pegasus 9mo ago
    So the US is basically running around like a headless chicken, causing chaos on the world stage, and you maintain that the left leg actually was aiming the correct way, if only the right leg would cooperate all would be well. Ok, got it.
    - _DeadFred_ 9mo ago
      Sounds very 'Good tsar, bad boyars' to me.
bigbadfeline 9mo ago
> You shouldn't wait for the bright future, because its unlikely one is coming for anyone, unless we (the west) thread the needle through one of very few green paths. This statement both denies and confirms my previous comment. So, which one is it? Should we give up all hope for the bright future or wait for the nebulous "green paths" with a baited breath while surrendering everything we value? If MAGA stands for "Don't wait for the Bright Future" it should be re-lettered as an acronym, ditto if it stands for "Surrender Your Values and Wait for the Tiny Green Paths". I'm afraid to ask about the nature of the TGPs lest I get directed to watch for secret signs to appear in the Orion Nebulae. Just how far can demagogy go? And I'm not blaming you, you are simply channeling the conflicted messaging of MAGA GOP. > We're less-than one generation away from wholesale human labor automation. In a normal world that would be The Bright Future, it would take planned and evil actions to destroy it and turn it into something bad for everyone. > All that matters, literally from the perspective of "the good of your people", is having the foundations in place to participate in the automation explosion that is already happening; or being a forever-serf to the countries that do (at best). Now we get to fear becoming "serfs" in the times of "wholesale human labor automation" which, of course, doesn't need any serfs. And how do you "participate in the automation explosion" by non-participating in the existing international division of labor? Without a shadow of doubt, if we (the US) used China for the importation of cheap commodities, we'd achieve the automation thing much faster and with much less risk. It's simple economics. Conversely, not participating and rallying the world around China, carries the risk of them getting ahead and we being left behind... and isolated. My major problem with MAGA GOP is their brazen disregard for reason, logic and decency, something that could indeed turn the wonders of AI into a tragedy for the US and humanity as a whole. Their strategy is maximum damage to China at any cost for the US and that doesn't make sense at all.
- cmxch 9mo ago
  > maximum damage to China at any cost for the US The last ship for that sailed when the Tiananmen massacre happened without any consequences to the PRC government. The first opportunity to have saved pain would have been to fully back Chiang Kai-Shek and have put down Mao’s rebellion - when China would have had the most ability to be reformed. If we extend the scope to US allies, the last opportunity would have been for the UK to keep Hong Kong British beyond 1997 - versus letting China renege on its promises.
cmxch 9mo ago
Then have the climate scientists and policymakers that back them make painful sacrifices so that the regular population doesn’t.

by 827a 9mo ago

pegasus 9mo ago

If that's what the US administration is aiming for, you'd expect them to bulk up higher education and scientific research, instead of dismantling them. And why won't relationships to other countries matter if we're to enter a terminal crisis period? Look at high-end chip production, it takes a lot of countries to make it all work: German lenses, in Dutch lithography machines employed by Taiwanese fabs, etc.

827a 9mo ago
I never once said that this is what the US administration is aiming for; stop making assumptions. There are individuals in the administration who understand this, and there are individuals who only care about deporting immigrants or disrupting vaccine schedules. There is no unified administration in the United States.
- pegasus 9mo ago
  So the US is basically running around like a headless chicken, causing chaos on the world stage, and you maintain that the left leg actually was aiming the correct way, if only the right leg would cooperate all would be well. Ok, got it.
  - _DeadFred_ 9mo ago
    Sounds very 'Good tsar, bad boyars' to me.

bigbadfeline 9mo ago

> You shouldn't wait for the bright future, because its unlikely one is coming for anyone, unless we (the west) thread the needle through one of very few green paths. This statement both denies and confirms my previous comment. So, which one is it? Should we give up all hope for the bright future or wait for the nebulous "green paths" with a baited breath while surrendering everything we value? If MAGA stands for "Don't wait for the Bright Future" it should be re-lettered as an acronym, ditto if it stands for "Surrender Your Values and Wait for the Tiny Green Paths". I'm afraid to ask about the nature of the TGPs lest I get directed to watch for secret signs to appear in the Orion Nebulae. Just how far can demagogy go? And I'm not blaming you, you are simply channeling the conflicted messaging of MAGA GOP. > We're less-than one generation away from wholesale human labor automation. In a normal world that would be The Bright Future, it would take planned and evil actions to destroy it and turn it into something bad for everyone. > All that matters, literally from the perspective of "the good of your people", is having the foundations in place to participate in the automation explosion that is already happening; or being a forever-serf to the countries that do (at best). Now we get to fear becoming "serfs" in the times of "wholesale human labor automation" which, of course, doesn't need any serfs. And how do you "participate in the automation explosion" by non-participating in the existing international division of labor? Without a shadow of doubt, if we (the US) used China for the importation of cheap commodities, we'd achieve the automation thing much faster and with much less risk. It's simple economics. Conversely, not participating and rallying the world around China, carries the risk of them getting ahead and we being left behind... and isolated. My major problem with MAGA GOP is their brazen disregard for reason, logic and decency, something that could indeed turn the wonders of AI into a tragedy for the US and humanity as a whole. Their strategy is maximum damage to China at any cost for the US and that doesn't make sense at all.

cmxch 9mo ago
> maximum damage to China at any cost for the US The last ship for that sailed when the Tiananmen massacre happened without any consequences to the PRC government. The first opportunity to have saved pain would have been to fully back Chiang Kai-Shek and have put down Mao’s rebellion - when China would have had the most ability to be reformed. If we extend the scope to US allies, the last opportunity would have been for the UK to keep Hong Kong British beyond 1997 - versus letting China renege on its promises.

cmxch 9mo ago

Then have the climate scientists and policymakers that back them make painful sacrifices so that the regular population doesn’t.