4 ms·

If you want me to ruin this for you, look up Bertrand's Paradox and The Problem Of Priors. I recently had to deal with this, ugh, I just pick a prior or two an

If you want me to ruin this for you, look up Bertrand's Paradox and The Problem Of Priors. I recently had to deal with this, ugh, I just pick a prior or two and see what the outcome looks like. I'm not sure we can calculate probability of success, but rather use probability to find losing ideas that should never be done.

rramadass 9mo ago
Nice. What are some good books to build this sort of perspective on Probability/Randomness/Chance?
- PlatoIsADisease 9mo ago
  These are ~1 layer removed, but it shook me from an epistemological perspective. Basically it destroys the idea of metaphysical truth. I'll start with the easy one that was written in native English, William James's Pragmatism. Its only 4 hours long, and teaches 1 of the 3 branches of metaphilosophy(Pragmatic). For ROI in philosophy, it doesn't get better than this. It teaches one of the 3 theories of Truth. Next is significantly more difficult, but everyone only understands 10% of Wittgenstein. Read both early and late Wittgenstein. If I remember correctly, its ~12 hours of pain as you will barely understand him. However, it shakes foundations of math and science as you will find these are mere constructs of language. This will also teach you 1 of the 3 branches of metaphilosophy(Analytical), and teach you how language works. You really need to read both early and late. But I imagine reading early Wittgenstein will convince you to read late. Its super painful, but you should deal with the pain. (the remaining branch of philosophy is Continental... that takes a long time to learn, but its mostly nonsensical rebuttals to Plato, take it from someone who read this for 8 years...) Regarding that initial thought on the Problem of Priors, here is a quick youtube video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xy6xXEhbGa0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xy6xXEhbGa0
  - rramadass 9mo ago
    William James i have read, both "Pragmatism"(not completely though) and "Talks to Teachers" (my favourite) but not much of Wittgenstein. There is a lot here which jives with ancient Hindu Schools of Philosophy, specifically; Nyaya (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nyaya https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nyaya), Vaisheshika (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaisheshika https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaisheshika) and Charvaka (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charvaka https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charvaka). Bayesian epistemology with priors have always been problematic since if there were no constraints on prior beliefs than anything goes. But in order to constrain the priors you need to know the distribution to calculate probabilities.
    - PlatoIsADisease 9mo ago
      If I can recommend anything: Stay away from ancients. Western or Eastern. Stick to contemporary people who are dead and have no marketing team to promote them.
      - rramadass 9mo ago
        > Stay away from ancients. Western or Eastern This i very much disagree with. Your username already hinted at your pov ;-) As Nassim Taleb (a good marketer of himself!) points out in his works; the ancient philosophers (western or eastern) had gotten a lot (all?) about Life right.
        PlatoIsADisease 9mo ago
        Read Wittgenstein and maybe finish pragmatism. There is a reason not even Continentals use ancient thoughts anymore. But at least read Wittgenstein. If you want a complete destruction of ancients and pre 1800s thought, Rorty has Philosophy and the Mirror of Nature. Its incredibly boring and teaches you nothing except that these ancients having incorrect understanding of language, psychology, and metaphysics, caused them to make grave mistakes.
        rramadass 9mo ago

rramadass 9mo ago

Nice. What are some good books to build this sort of perspective on Probability/Randomness/Chance?

PlatoIsADisease 9mo ago
These are ~1 layer removed, but it shook me from an epistemological perspective. Basically it destroys the idea of metaphysical truth. I'll start with the easy one that was written in native English, William James's Pragmatism. Its only 4 hours long, and teaches 1 of the 3 branches of metaphilosophy(Pragmatic). For ROI in philosophy, it doesn't get better than this. It teaches one of the 3 theories of Truth. Next is significantly more difficult, but everyone only understands 10% of Wittgenstein. Read both early and late Wittgenstein. If I remember correctly, its ~12 hours of pain as you will barely understand him. However, it shakes foundations of math and science as you will find these are mere constructs of language. This will also teach you 1 of the 3 branches of metaphilosophy(Analytical), and teach you how language works. You really need to read both early and late. But I imagine reading early Wittgenstein will convince you to read late. Its super painful, but you should deal with the pain. (the remaining branch of philosophy is Continental... that takes a long time to learn, but its mostly nonsensical rebuttals to Plato, take it from someone who read this for 8 years...) Regarding that initial thought on the Problem of Priors, here is a quick youtube video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xy6xXEhbGa0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xy6xXEhbGa0
- rramadass 9mo ago
  William James i have read, both "Pragmatism"(not completely though) and "Talks to Teachers" (my favourite) but not much of Wittgenstein. There is a lot here which jives with ancient Hindu Schools of Philosophy, specifically; Nyaya (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nyaya https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nyaya), Vaisheshika (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaisheshika https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaisheshika) and Charvaka (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charvaka https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charvaka). Bayesian epistemology with priors have always been problematic since if there were no constraints on prior beliefs than anything goes. But in order to constrain the priors you need to know the distribution to calculate probabilities.
  - PlatoIsADisease 9mo ago
    If I can recommend anything: Stay away from ancients. Western or Eastern. Stick to contemporary people who are dead and have no marketing team to promote them.
    - rramadass 9mo ago
      > Stay away from ancients. Western or Eastern This i very much disagree with. Your username already hinted at your pov ;-) As Nassim Taleb (a good marketer of himself!) points out in his works; the ancient philosophers (western or eastern) had gotten a lot (all?) about Life right.
      - PlatoIsADisease 9mo ago
        Read Wittgenstein and maybe finish pragmatism. There is a reason not even Continentals use ancient thoughts anymore. But at least read Wittgenstein. If you want a complete destruction of ancients and pre 1800s thought, Rorty has Philosophy and the Mirror of Nature. Its incredibly boring and teaches you nothing except that these ancients having incorrect understanding of language, psychology, and metaphysics, caused them to make grave mistakes.
        rramadass 9mo ago