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If AI tools make expert developers a lot more productive on large software projects, while empowering non-developers to create their own little programs and aut

If AI tools make expert developers a lot more productive on large software projects, while empowering non-developers to create their own little programs and automations, I am not sure how that would increase the number of people with “software developer” as their full-time job.

techblueberry 9mo ago
Because you would create lots more large software projects, how that it’s cheaper to do so.
layer8 9mo ago
It happened with tools like Excel, for example, which matches your description of empowering non-developers. It happens with non-developers setting up a CMS and then, when hitting the limits of what works out of the box, hiring or commissioning developers to add more complex functions and integrations. Barring AGI, there will always be limitations, and hitting them induces the desire to go beyond.
- lelanthran 9mo ago
  > when hitting the limits of what works out of the box, hiring or commissioning developers to add more complex functions and integrations. You aren't going to going to do that to AI systems. If, after a couple of weeks you hit the limit of what the AI could do in a million+ LoC, you aren't going to be able to hire a human dev to modify or replace that system for you, because: 1. Humans are going to be needing a ramp up time and that's damn costly (even more costly when there are fewer of them). 2. Where are you going to find humans who can actually code anymore if everyone has been doing this for the last 10 years?
  - layer8 9mo ago
    So, what do you propose non-developers in that situation will be doing then?
    - lelanthran 9mo ago
      > So, what do you propose non-developers in that situation will be doing then? Look, I dunno what they will do, but these options are certainly off the table: 1. Get a temp dev/team in to patch a 1m SloC mess 2. Do it cost-effectively. If the tech has improved by the time this happens (I mean, we're nowhere near this scenario yet, and it has already plateaued) then perhaps they can get the LLM itself to simply rewrite it instead of spending all those valuable tokens reading it in and trying to patch it. If the tech is not up to it, then their options are effectively: 1. Use it as is till the end of time 2. Throw it out, and start again 3. Pray

techblueberry 9mo ago

Because you would create lots more large software projects, how that it’s cheaper to do so.

layer8 9mo ago

It happened with tools like Excel, for example, which matches your description of empowering non-developers. It happens with non-developers setting up a CMS and then, when hitting the limits of what works out of the box, hiring or commissioning developers to add more complex functions and integrations. Barring AGI, there will always be limitations, and hitting them induces the desire to go beyond.

lelanthran 9mo ago
> when hitting the limits of what works out of the box, hiring or commissioning developers to add more complex functions and integrations. You aren't going to going to do that to AI systems. If, after a couple of weeks you hit the limit of what the AI could do in a million+ LoC, you aren't going to be able to hire a human dev to modify or replace that system for you, because: 1. Humans are going to be needing a ramp up time and that's damn costly (even more costly when there are fewer of them). 2. Where are you going to find humans who can actually code anymore if everyone has been doing this for the last 10 years?
- layer8 9mo ago
  So, what do you propose non-developers in that situation will be doing then?
  - lelanthran 9mo ago
    > So, what do you propose non-developers in that situation will be doing then? Look, I dunno what they will do, but these options are certainly off the table: 1. Get a temp dev/team in to patch a 1m SloC mess 2. Do it cost-effectively. If the tech has improved by the time this happens (I mean, we're nowhere near this scenario yet, and it has already plateaued) then perhaps they can get the LLM itself to simply rewrite it instead of spending all those valuable tokens reading it in and trying to patch it. If the tech is not up to it, then their options are effectively: 1. Use it as is till the end of time 2. Throw it out, and start again 3. Pray