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I predict that in 25 years (or 50 or 100): - human society will be even richer, more prosperous and more technologically advanced - people will still be despe

by dash2 9mo ago

I predict that in 25 years (or 50 or 100): - human society will be even richer, more prosperous and more technologically advanced - people will still be desperately worrying that this is a time of crisis and collapse Let's see.

fedeb95 9mo ago
if not in 25, in 26.
qarl 9mo ago
I think most Americans agree with you. And that itself will answer where we go from here. Let's see indeed. I'll reach out to you again each year on this date and we'll see how your prediction is holding up.
_heimdall 9mo ago
Wealth as we describe it today is effectively directly correlated with consumption of natural resources. Look up graphs of countries' GDP and oil consumption if you're ever curious. If society does continue to be richer and more prosperous, and those concepts aren't somehow fundamentally redefined, continued worry about crisis or collapse seems reasonable as that wealth came at the expense of further increase the amount of resources we burn through.
- senordevnyc 9mo ago
  If you're focused on oil consumption, is the issue "consumption of natural resources", or is the issue "energy"?
  - _heimdall 9mo ago
    Oil is a good example today, but not the only example or only one I would be concerned with. Energy (oil, coal, etc) is a problem today and is highly correlated with our consumption, but that's mostly a side effect of how we've built economies for the last couple centuries rather than a fundamental link to oil.
- pcthrowaway 9mo ago
  > Wealth as we describe it today is effectively directly correlated with consumption of natural resources I think the more relevant factor is control of natural resources
  - _heimdall 9mo ago
    At least in my view, wealth is the accumulation of the resources, money is a claim on that wealth, and control (or force) is what props up that claim.
ramraj07 9mo ago
Part of humanity will be sure. But what about the rest? Climate change will not kill humanity off, but its likely to cause suffering we haven’t seen since WWII (or worse). Unfortunately I've seen a glimpse of how the bottom 50% of people (not in a developed country but globally) get by today. If one doesnt care for their suffering and their lives, its easy to confirm that the society on average (not on median) will be more prosperous. But that will more likely manifest through a few hundred trillionaires living in space and a few ten thousand billionaires who serve them with their services. The bottom billions will likely just starve, move around desperately due to war, famine, fire and flood, turned away at closed borders, and who knows what new type of cruelty that will bubble up in the future. What do we tell them?
- tim333 9mo ago
  If you look how the lower 50% globally have done over the last 50 years they are way better off materially on the whole. Asia has gone from typically shacks and bicycles to aircon and suvs.
- dash2 9mo ago
  I don't know of any serious climate scientist who believes that climate change will cause billions of deaths. Can you point to one? As another comment pointed out, if you care for the bottom 50%, you should be extremely happy about progress over the past 50 (or 100 or 200) years.
  - ramraj07 9mo ago
    The bottom 50% has indeed gotten better (kinda sure but not everywhere) but technological progress is not guaranteeing they'll save everyone _anymore_. Fewer nations care about climate change and taking care of the poorer parts of the world (hope you dont expect me to show why too). The billion is my number. Almost all scientists and officials underestimate deliberately and naively death tolls. I have a metric that whatever number the new york times publishes for an earthquake on day one, you should multiply it by 100 for the eventual total count. No one estimated a million plus deaths from covid in the US. The moment I read the first comprehensive report from China I assumed 1% of the population will die. Unfortunately in places like India that actually was true. So yeah I do think at the minimum a billion people will die due to climate change in the next 50 years, and billions more will suffer in unthinkable ways. Thats _my_ estimate.
SCdF 9mo ago
How does the climate crisis fold into that, or do you not think that's a problem, or do you think it's a problem with no ramifications?
deleted 9mo ago
[deleted]

by dash2 9mo ago

fedeb95 9mo ago

if not in 25, in 26.

qarl 9mo ago

I think most Americans agree with you. And that itself will answer where we go from here. Let's see indeed. I'll reach out to you again each year on this date and we'll see how your prediction is holding up.

_heimdall 9mo ago

Wealth as we describe it today is effectively directly correlated with consumption of natural resources. Look up graphs of countries' GDP and oil consumption if you're ever curious. If society does continue to be richer and more prosperous, and those concepts aren't somehow fundamentally redefined, continued worry about crisis or collapse seems reasonable as that wealth came at the expense of further increase the amount of resources we burn through.

senordevnyc 9mo ago
If you're focused on oil consumption, is the issue "consumption of natural resources", or is the issue "energy"?
- _heimdall 9mo ago
  Oil is a good example today, but not the only example or only one I would be concerned with. Energy (oil, coal, etc) is a problem today and is highly correlated with our consumption, but that's mostly a side effect of how we've built economies for the last couple centuries rather than a fundamental link to oil.
pcthrowaway 9mo ago
> Wealth as we describe it today is effectively directly correlated with consumption of natural resources I think the more relevant factor is control of natural resources
- _heimdall 9mo ago
  At least in my view, wealth is the accumulation of the resources, money is a claim on that wealth, and control (or force) is what props up that claim.

ramraj07 9mo ago

Part of humanity will be sure. But what about the rest? Climate change will not kill humanity off, but its likely to cause suffering we haven’t seen since WWII (or worse). Unfortunately I've seen a glimpse of how the bottom 50% of people (not in a developed country but globally) get by today. If one doesnt care for their suffering and their lives, its easy to confirm that the society on average (not on median) will be more prosperous. But that will more likely manifest through a few hundred trillionaires living in space and a few ten thousand billionaires who serve them with their services. The bottom billions will likely just starve, move around desperately due to war, famine, fire and flood, turned away at closed borders, and who knows what new type of cruelty that will bubble up in the future. What do we tell them?

tim333 9mo ago
If you look how the lower 50% globally have done over the last 50 years they are way better off materially on the whole. Asia has gone from typically shacks and bicycles to aircon and suvs.
dash2 9mo ago
I don't know of any serious climate scientist who believes that climate change will cause billions of deaths. Can you point to one? As another comment pointed out, if you care for the bottom 50%, you should be extremely happy about progress over the past 50 (or 100 or 200) years.
- ramraj07 9mo ago
  The bottom 50% has indeed gotten better (kinda sure but not everywhere) but technological progress is not guaranteeing they'll save everyone _anymore_. Fewer nations care about climate change and taking care of the poorer parts of the world (hope you dont expect me to show why too). The billion is my number. Almost all scientists and officials underestimate deliberately and naively death tolls. I have a metric that whatever number the new york times publishes for an earthquake on day one, you should multiply it by 100 for the eventual total count. No one estimated a million plus deaths from covid in the US. The moment I read the first comprehensive report from China I assumed 1% of the population will die. Unfortunately in places like India that actually was true. So yeah I do think at the minimum a billion people will die due to climate change in the next 50 years, and billions more will suffer in unthinkable ways. Thats _my_ estimate.

SCdF 9mo ago

How does the climate crisis fold into that, or do you not think that's a problem, or do you think it's a problem with no ramifications?

deleted 9mo ago

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