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Not to side track too much from this discussion, but I looked at that PolyMarket event: "US civil war before 2027?" Currently, it is priced at 91.3 USD cents f
by throwaway2037 10mo ago
Not to side track too much from this discussion, but I looked at that PolyMarket event: "US civil war before 2027?" Currently, it is priced at 91.3 USD cents for No. If you bet 100 USD, the payout for No will be 109.43. That is very good return -- ~9.5% for 12 months of lending (as PolyMarket required full payment at the time of trade). That is twice the (retail) risk free rate at the moment. I am actually tempted to buy a large part of the order book. Am I missing something obvious?
Also, if you enjoy troll humor, the comments section is very funny.
- jddj 10mo agoThere are a few like this. You can bet on Jesus not coming back in the calendar year for a little pocket money. Funny, because a bit like the yes side of the civil war scenario, if JC comes back and someone is the sort of person to bet that he will, then do they really need the payout in those circumstances; and will the gambling website be in a position to pay out?
- isubkhankulov 10mo agoPolymarket and other prediction markets dont take risk on the trades. Two sides are needed to make a market so you’re likely to get your payout. So all the people taking the “safe” bet lose their collateral and the winners get the proceeds if the unlikely event happens.
- nsvd2 10mo agoIf you haven't been paying attention to American politics, there are currently widespread protests due to a woman being shot by ICE last week. It looks like the current administration may be seeking violent unrest in the hopes of delaying elections.
- derektank 10mo agoThere were large protests in the wake of a law enforcement officer killing someone in 2020 too. Notably, there was not a civil war, even though the Trump administration used the protests as cover for bad behavior then too
- PurpleRamen 10mo ago2020 was a single accidental case as the result of a poor system. Many people even from within the system on all levels agreed something went wrong and apologized. Today's situation is different, as the whole system is weaponized on purpose from one specific layer/group against the other layers/groups of the system. It's an internal conflict within the system itself, and a prime-example for justifying a civil war. And at the time Trump was still on the leash of his own adminstration.
- JumpCrisscross 10mo ago> looks like the current administration may be seeking violent unrest in the hopes of delaying elections Civil war requires two militaries. Tiananmen Square wasn’t a civil war.
- lukan 10mo agoI believe there are plenty of weapons around in the US in general and the police and military is also not 100% behind Trump and MAGA.
- 0xEF 10mo agoNot wrong, but don't forget there are many militias with itchy trigger fingers all over the political spectrum here, though admittedly some parties have more affiliated with them than others. It's not a stretch to assume should fighting in the streets escalate beyond ICE shenanigans that larger armies would not quickly congeal from the pocket groups and individuals.
- JumpCrisscross 10mo ago> there are many militias with itchy trigger fingers all over the political spectrum here That’s still not a civil war in the conventional sense. If it gets entrenched and coördinated it could be come something we’ll debate, e.g. the Troubles. But insurgency != civil war.
- btbuildem 10mo agoThe devil lives in the fine print, always.
- JumpCrisscross 10mo ago> devil lives in the fine print Sometimes yes. Sometimes no. Civil wars are large-scale mobilizations. That’s what makes them uniquely destructive. Insurgencies are also destructive, but in a categorically-different way.
- 10mo ago
- johncolanduoni 10mo agoBut if there is a civil war, what were you going to be able to do with the USD anyway?
- falcor84 10mo agoInteresting - I found this quantitative historical study [0] showing that while a civil war does significantly increase the likelihood of inflation, only 36% of countries analyzed which had a civil war between 1975-1999 ended up in an inflationary crisis. And with the USD having such a strong foundation, I would expect the risk to be significantly lower. [0] https://kjis.org/journal/view.html?uid=302&vmd=Full https://kjis.org/journal/view.html?uid=302&vmd=Full
- spotplay 10mo agoI am speculating wildly but I would expect the exact opposite due to different actors trying to destabilize the US to the point of no recovery in such an event.
- falcor84 10mo ago> to the point of no recovery Interesting, are you saying that the intentional use of USD somehow makes the US more vulnerable? What failure mode are you thinking of?
- immibis 10mo agoExchange it for something else before the war started?
- GoblinSlayer 10mo ago1. ban guns 2. start civil war 3. ??? 4. civil war with stone axes
- lazide 10mo agoThere are more currently owned guns in circulation in the US than people. One thing is for sure, any civil war in the us will not be short on guns.
- grosswait 10mo agoOr is it the financial backers of the protests that want a civil war?
- ActorNightly 10mo agoYour entire party is literally lizard people, so no argument you can make is valid.
- throwaway2037 10mo agoI love comments like this. You pop out of your (presumably New Zealand) prepper bomb shelter to get enough WiFi signal to make a post. I will bet against people like you all day long and make lots of money. How much are you willing to bet that there will be civil war in the US in 2026? Let's meet on PolyMarket!
- nsvd2 10mo agoYou have a very unusual opinion of me!
- walletdrainer 10mo ago> Am I missing something obvious? The low volume places a rather disappointing cap on your profits.
- cachius 10mo agoPolyMarket bets are becoming ever more problematic the wider it gets known, carrying the manipulation incentives from stock markets into every bettable aspect of society. > Total garbage. Spread by a $9bn company with a 1m-follower account, a post viewed by 4.5m people. Pure disinformation for financial gain, with serious consequences for actual human lives. Shashank Joshi - @shashj - Jan 12 - https://x.com/shashj/status/2010766014829478393 https://x.com/shashj/status/2010766014829478393
- michaelt 10mo ago> Am I missing something obvious? Considering reports like "Polymarket refuses to pay bets that US would 'invade' Venezuela" [1] one risk is poorly written small print, meaning you might not actually be betting on the thing you think you're betting on. This could also err in your favour, of course - but it's still a source of risk. There's also the risks involved in cryptocurrency generally - it's the wild west, rife with scams, hacks, unexpected fees, and paperwork. And thirdly, prediction markets often lack market depth, so if you want to invest a non-trivial amount the price can move a lot. You want to gamble $2,000 to win $190? No problem. You want to gamble $200,000 maybe no-one will take your bet. Can you be bothered to go through all the KYC paperwork rigmarole for $190 ? [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46521773 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46521773
- throwaway2037 10mo ago> You want to gamble $200,000 maybe no-one will take your bet. There is a visible order book. You can only place your order if someone takes the other side. Both sides are fully funded. > Can you be bothered to go through all the KYC paperwork rigmarole for $190 ? Can you tell me more about the KYC reqs?
- energy123 10mo agoIt's similar to selling options out of the money. You get compensated because nobody likes to pick up pennies in front of a steamroller.
- mlrtime 10mo agoI will when that bet is the steamroller taking out the entire country.
- lazide 10mo agoAnd the Pennies are the currency of the entire country? Frankly, if the scenario comes to pass, currency value risk is just as likely to make it not pay out than anything else.
- thatguy0900 10mo agoIf there's a civil war in the US I don't see how services like this would even stay up to collect from
- throwaway2037 10mo agoNot at all. Do you really think there is a risk of civil war in the United States in 2026? To me: It sounds like crazy people. I will make that be all day long!
- ActorNightly 10mo agoThe problem is, lets say protestors actually start getting violent across multiple state. Would that be considered a mini civil war?
- immibis 10mo agoPolyMarket repeatedly paid out bets on Trump creating peace between Palestine and Israel even though he hasn't.
- throwaway2037 10mo agoI Googled about this but could not find any reliable sources. Can you share some evidence that this is true?
- vagab0nd 10mo ago> Am I missing something obvious? To list a few: the risk of Polymarket going under, the risk of Polymarket mishandling your money, the risk of Polygon going under, the risk of Ethereum going under, the risk of USDC depegging, the risk of interests going up, and, most obvious of all, the risk of a civil war.
- inemesitaffia 10mo agoSeveral civil wars aren't known as such until long after
- mdnahas 10mo agoExamples, please.
- inemesitaffia 10mo agoThe English Civil Wars (1642–1651). The Spanish Civil War (1936–1939) I'd even consider the American one a big example.