6 ms·

If we judge it by the lost decade after the 2000 tech bubble definitely not back to stocks. A portfolio of things like gold, small cap value, long term treasur

If we judge it by the lost decade after the 2000 tech bubble definitely not back to stocks. A portfolio of things like gold, small cap value, long term treasuries did 10% a year while stocks did like 0% a year for a decade. https://portfoliocharts.com/2021/12/16/three-secret-ingredients-of-the-most-efficient-portfolios/ https://portfoliocharts.com/2021/12/16/three-secret-ingredie...

deadbabe 9mo ago
you cannot cherry pick, you must judge stocks over multiple decade long trends.
- therobots927 9mo ago
  What’s no longer outperforming? Gold?
  - Mistletoe 9mo ago
    Bitcoin just had a down year in 2025 when it was supposed to be the bull year. One of the worst performing assets of 2025. Doing well so far in 2026.
- Imustaskforhelp 9mo ago
  Yes but also nobody's absolutely forcing you to keep your money if you feel like stocks are in turbulence In fact you win even more if you feel like stocks are bubbly and wait in say gold or short term and you buy more stocks when they are cheap Also US stocks have underperformed compared to EU when you take all factors into account and all US stocks have rather been focused on AI hype which once again is a bubble which will fundamentally break the US economy. It's like saying 2008 crisis still made you money long term Sure if you are 20 years deep and even then nobody could've predicted what happened. The sentiments were extremely low I am one of the biggest index funds advisors usually and that's when I read finance books and wanted to go into finance but genuinely felt like index funds are just so great that the need is very low In fact I must admit that I dislike saying Gold but its genuinely one of the best assets (although it may be overvalued now not sure), another investment is specifically globalize your index fund portfolio to extreme/exclude US. In fact if possible bet on index funds on the opposite side of AI which most likely feels gold and yes, I am a little sad about this fact but rules of the game changes at points of extremes so gold is valid option right now
  - andsoitis 9mo ago
    > you buy more stocks when they are cheap but they are unlikely to be cheaper in the future than they are right now (https://www.guggenheiminvestments.com/advisor-resources/interactive-tools/sp-500-historical-trends https://www.guggenheiminvestments.com/advisor-resources/inte...). so if you have the money but defer buying them, you lose out on the time value of money.
    - Imustaskforhelp 9mo ago
      I understand this but realize that there are dips of almost 25% I invest in Index funds for peace of mind as well. That the market remains reasonably happy/sad and I can be for the long run. People discount this fact but imagine your concerns if you feel like 25% of your savings just evaporated because a guy ten layers detached from you burnt all the money on AI compute and there is no moat (Ahem ahem) If you don't want peace of mind, people should angel invest or build their own side hustles but then you are getting some savings anyway and its better to invest than keep it in banks (once you have a safe amount saved) But if you are saving money and still facing 25% crisis. Yeah... I understand where you are coming from but if you can expect a 50-75% dip in market this time (some companies are 2-5x overvalued just because they slap AI, their P/E ratio's straight up just don't make any sense at all!) So if you are willing to consider such dip for unforseen amount of time for unforseen returns in future when you can get a pretty safe investment for X amount of years being very liquid and historically in such times there are times when bond prices have been larger than stock prices If I remember correctly, Intelligent Investors suggests an intelligent approach towards this (in one of the starting chapters of the book)
      - deadbabe 9mo ago
        P/E ratios rarely seem to make sense and yet people have been making money for a long time buying stocks with crazy P/E.
        Imustaskforhelp 9mo ago
        Just because people have been making money with stocks with crazy P/E historically doesn't mean that its meant to continue Especially when you realize on aggregate, Companies long term have to reflect profit and less P/E otherwise if your stock index fund has larger P/E ratio, then you are absolutely taking on higher risk There is no free lunch. You are also forgetting that the reason the extrapolation of stock markets growth from historical data correlates to future data is that there is a benchmark of productivity underneath it all. Stock markets theoretically grows when productivity of all businesses in an economy improve which can improve due to scientific and economic reasons and the faith in the system that it does improve Quite frankly, if you can't observe this, do not invest in index funds but rather something else which can reflect some amount of productivity (Short term bonds are needed by govt to improve life of the people so that they can pay more taxes in aggregate and improve conditions thus improving productivity as well) I recommend the book Intelligent Investing and The little book of common sense investing by the legendary John Bogle (May he rest in peace)
deleted 9mo ago
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deadbabe 9mo ago

you cannot cherry pick, you must judge stocks over multiple decade long trends.

therobots927 9mo ago
What’s no longer outperforming? Gold?
- Mistletoe 9mo ago
  Bitcoin just had a down year in 2025 when it was supposed to be the bull year. One of the worst performing assets of 2025. Doing well so far in 2026.
Imustaskforhelp 9mo ago
Yes but also nobody's absolutely forcing you to keep your money if you feel like stocks are in turbulence In fact you win even more if you feel like stocks are bubbly and wait in say gold or short term and you buy more stocks when they are cheap Also US stocks have underperformed compared to EU when you take all factors into account and all US stocks have rather been focused on AI hype which once again is a bubble which will fundamentally break the US economy. It's like saying 2008 crisis still made you money long term Sure if you are 20 years deep and even then nobody could've predicted what happened. The sentiments were extremely low I am one of the biggest index funds advisors usually and that's when I read finance books and wanted to go into finance but genuinely felt like index funds are just so great that the need is very low In fact I must admit that I dislike saying Gold but its genuinely one of the best assets (although it may be overvalued now not sure), another investment is specifically globalize your index fund portfolio to extreme/exclude US. In fact if possible bet on index funds on the opposite side of AI which most likely feels gold and yes, I am a little sad about this fact but rules of the game changes at points of extremes so gold is valid option right now
- andsoitis 9mo ago
  > you buy more stocks when they are cheap but they are unlikely to be cheaper in the future than they are right now (https://www.guggenheiminvestments.com/advisor-resources/interactive-tools/sp-500-historical-trends https://www.guggenheiminvestments.com/advisor-resources/inte...). so if you have the money but defer buying them, you lose out on the time value of money.
  - Imustaskforhelp 9mo ago
    I understand this but realize that there are dips of almost 25% I invest in Index funds for peace of mind as well. That the market remains reasonably happy/sad and I can be for the long run. People discount this fact but imagine your concerns if you feel like 25% of your savings just evaporated because a guy ten layers detached from you burnt all the money on AI compute and there is no moat (Ahem ahem) If you don't want peace of mind, people should angel invest or build their own side hustles but then you are getting some savings anyway and its better to invest than keep it in banks (once you have a safe amount saved) But if you are saving money and still facing 25% crisis. Yeah... I understand where you are coming from but if you can expect a 50-75% dip in market this time (some companies are 2-5x overvalued just because they slap AI, their P/E ratio's straight up just don't make any sense at all!) So if you are willing to consider such dip for unforseen amount of time for unforseen returns in future when you can get a pretty safe investment for X amount of years being very liquid and historically in such times there are times when bond prices have been larger than stock prices If I remember correctly, Intelligent Investors suggests an intelligent approach towards this (in one of the starting chapters of the book)
    - deadbabe 9mo ago
      P/E ratios rarely seem to make sense and yet people have been making money for a long time buying stocks with crazy P/E.
      - Imustaskforhelp 9mo ago
        Just because people have been making money with stocks with crazy P/E historically doesn't mean that its meant to continue Especially when you realize on aggregate, Companies long term have to reflect profit and less P/E otherwise if your stock index fund has larger P/E ratio, then you are absolutely taking on higher risk There is no free lunch. You are also forgetting that the reason the extrapolation of stock markets growth from historical data correlates to future data is that there is a benchmark of productivity underneath it all. Stock markets theoretically grows when productivity of all businesses in an economy improve which can improve due to scientific and economic reasons and the faith in the system that it does improve Quite frankly, if you can't observe this, do not invest in index funds but rather something else which can reflect some amount of productivity (Short term bonds are needed by govt to improve life of the people so that they can pay more taxes in aggregate and improve conditions thus improving productivity as well) I recommend the book Intelligent Investing and The little book of common sense investing by the legendary John Bogle (May he rest in peace)

deleted 9mo ago

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