4 ms·

"Are the employees entitled to the 'artificial' supply limitation created by national boundaries?" I agree, this is a good question, but I do think that you ca

by geebee 14y ago

"Are the employees entitled to the 'artificial' supply limitation created by national boundaries?" I agree, this is a good question, but I do think that you can answer "no" while still disagreeing with the premise of the H1B program. Another way to frame this would be. "Should the 'artificial' supply limitations created by national boundaries be enforced evenly across all sectors of the workforce?" I'm actually ok with a "no" to this answer, though my answer would be "no, but proceed with caution." I support a points program to emphasize skilled immigration, so clearly I am willing to bend on the "even enforcement" to favor certain types of workers. However, like I said, do this with caution. I think that as the magnitude increases and the target narrows, you increase the possibility of a bad market distortion. To some extent, I do think we've done this in the US - we have created a situation that deters young Americans from entering this field. I think that the most innovative countries will succeed because they have both managed to attract the top talent from around the world while maintaining a strong pipeline of talent from their own population. If you lock out top talent from overseas, you're doomed. If your entire strategy depends on convincing talent from overseas to stay, you're doomed.

akiselev 14y ago
It seems to me that the H1-B was more a response to young Americans not entering various fields than the other way around. In machining, for example, companies all over the country from automotive to aerospace to medical to mom and pop machine shops are having trouble finding skilled workers. As many as 50-70% of respondents in major industry surveys are saying that a skilled worker shortage is a major problem for growth and expansion. [1] A shortage of talent isn't just a problem in the software industry, it's becoming endemic to engineering. For example, there are a few dozen electrical engineering consultants that do most of the hardware work for many of SV's startups (including ones such as SpaceX) and I've heard stats (that I don't have official data for on hand) like Mexico City universities are graduating more mechE's than the entirety of the US and anecdotally, it's becoming very difficult to find talented hardware engineer in any industry (most of the non-software startups I know of are 25-50% immigrants). The H1-B Visas are critical for experienced and knowledgeable workers and if you artificially limit the supply (which is already the case), you have cases such as foreigners coming to the US, getting their BS/MS/PhD, just to be kicked out of the country a month later. Meanwhile, employers can't get the skilled workers that they need. IBM's abuse of the H1-B is kind of irrelevant, as they're not even in the top 10 of H1-B employers [2] [1] http://www.themanufacturinginstitute.org/Research/Skills-Gap-in-Manufacturing/Skills-Gap-in-Manufacturing.aspx http://www.themanufacturinginstitute.org/Research/Skills-Gap... [2] http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/prevailing_wage_determination.pdf http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/prevailing_wage_d...
- geebee 14y ago
  "It seems to me that the H1-B was more a response to young Americans not entering various fields than the other way around." I think it may be a self-reinforcing cycle. A short term "shortage" may prompt the visa program, but this may suppress the increase in wages that would attract more US citizens to the field. Which can lead to greater shortages, more visas, and so forth. Enough iterations of this process and you get exactly what you have described - a "shortage" that is endemic to the entire field. While I appreciate your response, I do think you weaken your argument by talking about shortages without discussing wages. The argument that someone tried to pay "market rate" doesn't resonate much with me either - if there's a shortage, you'd expect wages to go up, sometimes dramatically. I see no reason for the government to step in and prevent this. We also probably disagree about "artificially" limiting the supply. Most of what we call "engineering" in the US is not subject to regulatory capture, like law or medicine. Anyone can hang out a shingle as a software developer. And by creating very specific visa programs for STEM fields while leaving other fields controlled either by regulatory capture or the simple requirement of current US residency rights while vastly expanding the pool of engineers through visa programs, we may be "artificially" increasing the supply of STEM workers relative to the rest of the workforce. Lastly, I agree with you that it makes no sense to kick people who have gotten degrees in the US out of the country. Terrible idea. But we should ask why US citizens have abandoned these fields to the degree that they have. Some people will claim that it is educational failures, especially in math and science. However, keep in mind that the RAND institute conducted a large study and concluded that Americans are avoiding graduate degrees in STEM fields largely because these fields have fallen badly behind the pay and stability of other careers - in short, the "shortage" is a very rational response to market conditions. http://www.rand.org/pubs/issue_papers/IP241.html http://www.rand.org/pubs/issue_papers/IP241.html This is why I'm favor of general skilled immigration programs, but I'm very skeptical of public policy based on an assumed shortage of STEM workers. Overall, I don't think the evidence supports the claims of a shortage.
  - akiselev 14y ago
    I don't think that the shortage was by any means short term. The 80s and 90s saw many many baby boomers start to retire, especially in the manufacturing and industrial fields, while vocational and STEM education paths became less and less popular with the younger generations. This also coincided with free trade "reform" and the beginnings of the outsourcing wave, which was very tech/industrial heavy and thus lowered labor wages here for competitiveness (whether or not it was necessary). Wages also vary extremely drastically, even across proximate geographies. I.e., in LA starting software dev positions were at $45-50k a year while in SV they are $70-80k. Having lived in both areas, the difference in cost of living is NOT that big. While engineering itself may not be subject to much regulation, the H1-B process is. It is the equivalent of extraordinary ability but with a lower barrier to entry based on market needs instead of publications. As such it is very carefully regulated. As for "artificially" increasing supply... that's a weird way to put it. America is built on the backs of immigrants and having maximum quotas for the immigration of the highest skilled ones does not seem like artificially increasing the supply. The reality is that 90%+ of the world would gladly take a salary 30-50% lower than an American just to live here and the H1-B hinders such under cutting. As far as engineering falling badly behind other fields... I don't see it. The Bay Area is obviously not representative but I don't know of a single engineer (not software) who is unemployed or has trouble finding consulting gigs for ridiculous $100+ an hour rates. Outside of the Bay, most of the employed engineers that I know are older and pretty much irrelevant skill wise. Machinists who know nothing about 5-axis or high speed machining, electrical engineers who can't do high frequency design required by so much of our tech now adays, mechEs who don't have much experience with design for manufacturing, etc.

by geebee 14y ago

akiselev 14y ago

It seems to me that the H1-B was more a response to young Americans not entering various fields than the other way around. In machining, for example, companies all over the country from automotive to aerospace to medical to mom and pop machine shops are having trouble finding skilled workers. As many as 50-70% of respondents in major industry surveys are saying that a skilled worker shortage is a major problem for growth and expansion. [1] A shortage of talent isn't just a problem in the software industry, it's becoming endemic to engineering. For example, there are a few dozen electrical engineering consultants that do most of the hardware work for many of SV's startups (including ones such as SpaceX) and I've heard stats (that I don't have official data for on hand) like Mexico City universities are graduating more mechE's than the entirety of the US and anecdotally, it's becoming very difficult to find talented hardware engineer in any industry (most of the non-software startups I know of are 25-50% immigrants). The H1-B Visas are critical for experienced and knowledgeable workers and if you artificially limit the supply (which is already the case), you have cases such as foreigners coming to the US, getting their BS/MS/PhD, just to be kicked out of the country a month later. Meanwhile, employers can't get the skilled workers that they need. IBM's abuse of the H1-B is kind of irrelevant, as they're not even in the top 10 of H1-B employers [2] [1] http://www.themanufacturinginstitute.org/Research/Skills-Gap-in-Manufacturing/Skills-Gap-in-Manufacturing.aspx http://www.themanufacturinginstitute.org/Research/Skills-Gap... [2] http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/prevailing_wage_determination.pdf http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/prevailing_wage_d...

geebee 14y ago
"It seems to me that the H1-B was more a response to young Americans not entering various fields than the other way around." I think it may be a self-reinforcing cycle. A short term "shortage" may prompt the visa program, but this may suppress the increase in wages that would attract more US citizens to the field. Which can lead to greater shortages, more visas, and so forth. Enough iterations of this process and you get exactly what you have described - a "shortage" that is endemic to the entire field. While I appreciate your response, I do think you weaken your argument by talking about shortages without discussing wages. The argument that someone tried to pay "market rate" doesn't resonate much with me either - if there's a shortage, you'd expect wages to go up, sometimes dramatically. I see no reason for the government to step in and prevent this. We also probably disagree about "artificially" limiting the supply. Most of what we call "engineering" in the US is not subject to regulatory capture, like law or medicine. Anyone can hang out a shingle as a software developer. And by creating very specific visa programs for STEM fields while leaving other fields controlled either by regulatory capture or the simple requirement of current US residency rights while vastly expanding the pool of engineers through visa programs, we may be "artificially" increasing the supply of STEM workers relative to the rest of the workforce. Lastly, I agree with you that it makes no sense to kick people who have gotten degrees in the US out of the country. Terrible idea. But we should ask why US citizens have abandoned these fields to the degree that they have. Some people will claim that it is educational failures, especially in math and science. However, keep in mind that the RAND institute conducted a large study and concluded that Americans are avoiding graduate degrees in STEM fields largely because these fields have fallen badly behind the pay and stability of other careers - in short, the "shortage" is a very rational response to market conditions. http://www.rand.org/pubs/issue_papers/IP241.html http://www.rand.org/pubs/issue_papers/IP241.html This is why I'm favor of general skilled immigration programs, but I'm very skeptical of public policy based on an assumed shortage of STEM workers. Overall, I don't think the evidence supports the claims of a shortage.
- akiselev 14y ago
  I don't think that the shortage was by any means short term. The 80s and 90s saw many many baby boomers start to retire, especially in the manufacturing and industrial fields, while vocational and STEM education paths became less and less popular with the younger generations. This also coincided with free trade "reform" and the beginnings of the outsourcing wave, which was very tech/industrial heavy and thus lowered labor wages here for competitiveness (whether or not it was necessary). Wages also vary extremely drastically, even across proximate geographies. I.e., in LA starting software dev positions were at $45-50k a year while in SV they are $70-80k. Having lived in both areas, the difference in cost of living is NOT that big. While engineering itself may not be subject to much regulation, the H1-B process is. It is the equivalent of extraordinary ability but with a lower barrier to entry based on market needs instead of publications. As such it is very carefully regulated. As for "artificially" increasing supply... that's a weird way to put it. America is built on the backs of immigrants and having maximum quotas for the immigration of the highest skilled ones does not seem like artificially increasing the supply. The reality is that 90%+ of the world would gladly take a salary 30-50% lower than an American just to live here and the H1-B hinders such under cutting. As far as engineering falling badly behind other fields... I don't see it. The Bay Area is obviously not representative but I don't know of a single engineer (not software) who is unemployed or has trouble finding consulting gigs for ridiculous $100+ an hour rates. Outside of the Bay, most of the employed engineers that I know are older and pretty much irrelevant skill wise. Machinists who know nothing about 5-axis or high speed machining, electrical engineers who can't do high frequency design required by so much of our tech now adays, mechEs who don't have much experience with design for manufacturing, etc.