4 ms·

This is indeed nice for a well-to-do home. But there is a tragedy of the commons issue here. The grid needs to be up 24/7. And while peak usage is just that, t

This is indeed nice for a well-to-do home. But there is a tragedy of the commons issue here. The grid needs to be up 24/7. And while peak usage is just that, the grid capacity still needs to support peak usage. This can theoretically be done using batteries but not for an extended amount of time. To say we can have batteries for 2 weeks of normal consumption is highly improbable. The metals do build those batteries do not exist. Or put in a worse way, the mines do not exist. An off the cuff calculation of costs and the massive amount of batteries required in the context of Sweden can be found (you need to translate) here: https://www.tn.se/naringsliv/40181/utrakning-60-globen-batterier-kravs-for-att-ersatta-karnkraften/ https://www.tn.se/naringsliv/40181/utrakning-60-globen-batte... In other words, 60 full scale Globen arenas of batteries to replace current Swedish nuclear production. So for small houses these investments can make sense currently. But from a larger perspective it's not that interesting.

epistasis 9mo ago
Residential solar with batteries greatly aids the grid and reduces costs for the entire system. > The metals do build those batteries do not exist. Or put in a worse way, the mines do not exist. Lithium and sodium, the two most promising battery metals, are not usually mined, though in Australia I hear there is mining. It's more of a brine process. All across the US, frackers are finding that all that water they are pulling out is a fairly rich lithium brine. The amount of metal needed for 2 weeks of batteries is pretty trivial compared to the system we've built for extracting fossil fuels, and iron, etc. The bigger demands for electrification are acutally copper! Gotta wire everything.... Grid batteries on the GWh scale make a ton of sense financially and environmentally, and are revolutionizing the grid. Never before has the grid had a way to store electricity on a grand scale, which changes the entire nature of the beast. It's was one of the only massive systems we had where there wasn't buffering! With storage, we can alleviate congested transmission without super costly transmission upgrades. On exist lines, we can the usage massively, reducing costs, because now we can buffer across time to shave off the peak demand. Batteries are easy to build, environmentally friendly, and like a swiss army knife in their number of applications. We will be producing TWh of batteries a year in modern economies, and they last ~20 years, meaning that for the foreseeable economic growth in the coming decades, we'll easily have a peta-watthour of battery storage in use at a time.
- mikaeluman 9mo ago
  I don't agree. Lithium and Copper are mined and given electrification scenarios there is a projected supply deficit: https://www.iea.org/reports/global-critical-minerals-outlook-2025/executive-summary https://www.iea.org/reports/global-critical-minerals-outlook... Those prices are outdated now since practically all metals are surging. There has indeed been great growth in battery capacity but it's as I said nowhere near able to supply a country like Sweden during the winter. It is off by orders of magnitude. We need 5TWh for that. It is not going to happen any time soon. I understand California is different. Still, one would need to do these risk scenario calculations. Have they been made? I know California has rotating blackouts already as it is. I really don't have any idea how people find that acceptable. If it happened in Sweden the government would be replaced on the day. It would be a real disaster. I will be a bigger believer if a state like California can actually show its possible. For sure I hope technology improves but the current ideas of solar+battery are simply highly unlikely.
  - epistasis 9mo ago
    Your link does not support the idea of a supply deficit, at least that I see. Propel panicked about lithium under supply, prices surged and didn't even affect battery prices much, and now we are in oversuppply. The worst that can happen is lag time between demand increase and supply match, and there are substitutes for all key metals for most applications, even copper. Every country will have to figure out how to supply its own power, but Sweden's seasonal variation in renewable resources is not likely to be fixed by batteries, even though batteries will be abundant and in massive supply throughout the rest of the world. If Sweden can't figure out, or merely can't, take advantage of great cheap new technology, they will be at a disadvantage compared to countries that will > I know California has rotating blackouts already as it is You don't know that because it's not true. Due to planning not taking into account climate change, there were a few days with demand above expected ability to provide capacity, but there were no blackouts because people were asked to voluntarily cut back on excessive cooling. That mere ask was more than enough to get through the few days. And it was fixed the next year, by what? By batteries! Adding nuclear wouldn't have helped, but batteries were the perfect solution. Perhaps nuclear can help Sweden, but it will be far more expensive than the solutions available to other countries. It is quite funny that what I thought was US propaganda has been spread to Sweden for repetition. Even including the IEA report that doesn't say what people claim it says!
ImPostingOnHN 9mo ago
What makes you think I need batteries for 2 weeks of normal consumption?
- epistasis 9mo ago
  Nobody needs that, but from my point of view batteries will be so cheap and abundant that we will likely get to having 2 weeks of storage just sitting around the grid or rolling on wheels. People always underestimate where exponential cost decreases will take us. Current battery production grows by 10x in a mere 5 years. In a decade, the time it takes to build a nuclear power plant, we will grow our battery production by 100x. Not enough people take this seriously, or even know that the trend exists.
- mikaeluman 9mo ago
  We practically don't see the sun in northern Europe during winter. And yes, the wind might not blow either. I consider 2 weeks of supply a bare minimum.
  - ImPostingOnHN 9mo ago
    How would 2 weeks of battery help you in that situation? The winter lasts a lot longer than 2 weeks. So after 2 weeks of no sun, wouldn't you be just as screwed as if you had 1 week of battery storage?
coryrc 9mo ago
I don't see where anyone is proposing this as multiple-week storage for the whole grid? That's why you're investigating hydro storage: https://www.ess-news.com/2025/02/11/fortum-explores-new-pumped-hydro-storage-oprtunities-in-sweden/ https://www.ess-news.com/2025/02/11/fortum-explores-new-pump...

epistasis 9mo ago

Residential solar with batteries greatly aids the grid and reduces costs for the entire system. > The metals do build those batteries do not exist. Or put in a worse way, the mines do not exist. Lithium and sodium, the two most promising battery metals, are not usually mined, though in Australia I hear there is mining. It's more of a brine process. All across the US, frackers are finding that all that water they are pulling out is a fairly rich lithium brine. The amount of metal needed for 2 weeks of batteries is pretty trivial compared to the system we've built for extracting fossil fuels, and iron, etc. The bigger demands for electrification are acutally copper! Gotta wire everything.... Grid batteries on the GWh scale make a ton of sense financially and environmentally, and are revolutionizing the grid. Never before has the grid had a way to store electricity on a grand scale, which changes the entire nature of the beast. It's was one of the only massive systems we had where there wasn't buffering! With storage, we can alleviate congested transmission without super costly transmission upgrades. On exist lines, we can the usage massively, reducing costs, because now we can buffer across time to shave off the peak demand. Batteries are easy to build, environmentally friendly, and like a swiss army knife in their number of applications. We will be producing TWh of batteries a year in modern economies, and they last ~20 years, meaning that for the foreseeable economic growth in the coming decades, we'll easily have a peta-watthour of battery storage in use at a time.

mikaeluman 9mo ago
I don't agree. Lithium and Copper are mined and given electrification scenarios there is a projected supply deficit: https://www.iea.org/reports/global-critical-minerals-outlook-2025/executive-summary https://www.iea.org/reports/global-critical-minerals-outlook... Those prices are outdated now since practically all metals are surging. There has indeed been great growth in battery capacity but it's as I said nowhere near able to supply a country like Sweden during the winter. It is off by orders of magnitude. We need 5TWh for that. It is not going to happen any time soon. I understand California is different. Still, one would need to do these risk scenario calculations. Have they been made? I know California has rotating blackouts already as it is. I really don't have any idea how people find that acceptable. If it happened in Sweden the government would be replaced on the day. It would be a real disaster. I will be a bigger believer if a state like California can actually show its possible. For sure I hope technology improves but the current ideas of solar+battery are simply highly unlikely.
- epistasis 9mo ago
  Your link does not support the idea of a supply deficit, at least that I see. Propel panicked about lithium under supply, prices surged and didn't even affect battery prices much, and now we are in oversuppply. The worst that can happen is lag time between demand increase and supply match, and there are substitutes for all key metals for most applications, even copper. Every country will have to figure out how to supply its own power, but Sweden's seasonal variation in renewable resources is not likely to be fixed by batteries, even though batteries will be abundant and in massive supply throughout the rest of the world. If Sweden can't figure out, or merely can't, take advantage of great cheap new technology, they will be at a disadvantage compared to countries that will > I know California has rotating blackouts already as it is You don't know that because it's not true. Due to planning not taking into account climate change, there were a few days with demand above expected ability to provide capacity, but there were no blackouts because people were asked to voluntarily cut back on excessive cooling. That mere ask was more than enough to get through the few days. And it was fixed the next year, by what? By batteries! Adding nuclear wouldn't have helped, but batteries were the perfect solution. Perhaps nuclear can help Sweden, but it will be far more expensive than the solutions available to other countries. It is quite funny that what I thought was US propaganda has been spread to Sweden for repetition. Even including the IEA report that doesn't say what people claim it says!

ImPostingOnHN 9mo ago

What makes you think I need batteries for 2 weeks of normal consumption?

epistasis 9mo ago
Nobody needs that, but from my point of view batteries will be so cheap and abundant that we will likely get to having 2 weeks of storage just sitting around the grid or rolling on wheels. People always underestimate where exponential cost decreases will take us. Current battery production grows by 10x in a mere 5 years. In a decade, the time it takes to build a nuclear power plant, we will grow our battery production by 100x. Not enough people take this seriously, or even know that the trend exists.
mikaeluman 9mo ago
We practically don't see the sun in northern Europe during winter. And yes, the wind might not blow either. I consider 2 weeks of supply a bare minimum.
- ImPostingOnHN 9mo ago
  How would 2 weeks of battery help you in that situation? The winter lasts a lot longer than 2 weeks. So after 2 weeks of no sun, wouldn't you be just as screwed as if you had 1 week of battery storage?

coryrc 9mo ago

I don't see where anyone is proposing this as multiple-week storage for the whole grid? That's why you're investigating hydro storage: https://www.ess-news.com/2025/02/11/fortum-explores-new-pumped-hydro-storage-oprtunities-in-sweden/ https://www.ess-news.com/2025/02/11/fortum-explores-new-pump...