3 ms·

> Second, some of the increased deaths may be due to rising alcohol consumption. According to data from the National Survey of Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), the

by hbn 9mo ago

> Second, some of the increased deaths may be due to rising alcohol consumption. According to data from the National Survey of Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), the percentage of people aged 65 or older who consume alcohol each month increased by 16% between 2002 and 2019. From 2002–2003 to 2021–2023, the share of this group who reported binge drinking in the past 30 days rose from 7.3% to 11.4% I've been hearing nothing but the complete opposite, that people are drinking less than ever https://news.gallup.com/poll/693362/drinking-rate-new-low-alcohol-concerns-surge.aspx https://news.gallup.com/poll/693362/drinking-rate-new-low-al... > Americans' drinking habits are shifting amid the medical world’s reappraisal of alcohol’s health effects. After decades of relative steadiness in the proportion of U.S. adults who drink, Gallup has documented three consecutive years of decline in the U.S. drinking rate as research supporting the “no amount of alcohol is safe” message mounts. Compounding the challenge for companies that sell alcohol, drinkers now appear to be dialing back how much they drink, as well. How are they finding completely opposite trends?

estearum 9mo ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox
dexwiz 9mo ago
Notice the age range is 65 or older. There is a large cohort of Boomers/GenX/Millenial drinkers who are aging up. The overall downtrend is that younger people are not starting to drink. But those who contributed to the initial rise are getting older.
- techjamie 9mo ago
  I imagine that would be one positive effect of endless entertainment being ubiquitous- since people can zone out in front of a screen with any entertainment medium of their choosing, they are less likely to opt for alcohol. Though interestingly, drunk driving fatalities are rising despite lowering alcohol consumption[1], even discounting the pandemic contriting large jumps up. So of the people that do drink, they're more likely to drive after doing so? It seems like an interesting topic to study. [1] https://www.safehome.org/resources/dui-statistics/ https://www.safehome.org/resources/dui-statistics/
  - dexwiz 9mo ago
    Anecdotally the drinking culture that existed for me in my youth has completely disappeared. House parties, a staple of my college years, are nonexistent. Talking to recent grads from the same school, their social life looks very different. I think this is connected to social media but in a different way. Young people are very aware that any deviant behavior will be recorded and posted. Also they are deathly afraid of being "cringe."
    - brabel 9mo ago
      Is this really true? College kids are not making drinking parties anymore?? I can’t even fathom that.
      - dexwiz 9mo ago
        Talking to some recent grads (last few years) last summer, parties were pretty much confined to frat parties. The school had a very vibrant house party scene circa 2010, but it sounded dead even pre-Covid. The people I talked to were at a music festival, so high cross over with those who would have attended the parties, not those who spent college locked in a dorm. I was very shocked to hear the difference in experience with within a decade.
hyperpape 9mo ago
The fact that overall drinking is decreasing is 100% compatible with the drinking rate increasing for some specific age cohort.
csh0 9mo ago
Your quoted paragraphs are not discussing the same trend, your first paragraph is referring to drinking habits in those 65 or older. The second paragraph is discussing drinking habits for all US adults.
- hbn 9mo ago
  I suppose so. But the leading line before their 5 points made it sound like they were trying to explain why the fall deaths were increasing regardless of age. > Why have deaths from falls, on an age-adjusted basis, risen? There are at least five possible reasons.
  - zamadatix 9mo ago
    It's a tricky term, but the definition given towards the top where "age-adjusted" is clickable helps clarify. It's introduced in "But an aging population only partially explains the rise in these deaths. Deaths by falls have risen 2.4-fold on an age-<adjusted basis>. " The <clickable> part in brackets (easy to miss) expands to: > Age-adjusted data helps to compare health data over time or between groups more fairly by accounting for the age differences in populations. For example, suppose Population A has a higher average age than Population B. In that case, age-adjusting ensures that Population A's naturally higher death rate due to age doesn't skew comparisons of overall health between the two. This measurement makes death statistic comparisons more accurate than crude death rates. An "age group" might be "45-54" or "85+" but a "population" would be "all age groups in 2000" or "all age groups in 2023". Age-adjusted here means the differences in the number of people in each population (2000 vs 2023) are normalized to each so we can compare the absolute numbers from each age group directly, not the other way around. There is some immediate follow-up text which helps clarify they do not mean to normalize the age groups themselves together within a single population for comparison: > While they [population age-adjusted fall deaths] have fallen among younger people and only risen slightly among the middle aged, they have risen substantially within every age bracket of the elderly. This all gave me flashbacks to stats class, and I now need to go relax :).

by hbn 9mo ago

estearum 9mo ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox

dexwiz 9mo ago

Notice the age range is 65 or older. There is a large cohort of Boomers/GenX/Millenial drinkers who are aging up. The overall downtrend is that younger people are not starting to drink. But those who contributed to the initial rise are getting older.

techjamie 9mo ago
I imagine that would be one positive effect of endless entertainment being ubiquitous- since people can zone out in front of a screen with any entertainment medium of their choosing, they are less likely to opt for alcohol. Though interestingly, drunk driving fatalities are rising despite lowering alcohol consumption[1], even discounting the pandemic contriting large jumps up. So of the people that do drink, they're more likely to drive after doing so? It seems like an interesting topic to study. [1] https://www.safehome.org/resources/dui-statistics/ https://www.safehome.org/resources/dui-statistics/
- dexwiz 9mo ago
  Anecdotally the drinking culture that existed for me in my youth has completely disappeared. House parties, a staple of my college years, are nonexistent. Talking to recent grads from the same school, their social life looks very different. I think this is connected to social media but in a different way. Young people are very aware that any deviant behavior will be recorded and posted. Also they are deathly afraid of being "cringe."
  - brabel 9mo ago
    Is this really true? College kids are not making drinking parties anymore?? I can’t even fathom that.
    - dexwiz 9mo ago
      Talking to some recent grads (last few years) last summer, parties were pretty much confined to frat parties. The school had a very vibrant house party scene circa 2010, but it sounded dead even pre-Covid. The people I talked to were at a music festival, so high cross over with those who would have attended the parties, not those who spent college locked in a dorm. I was very shocked to hear the difference in experience with within a decade.

hyperpape 9mo ago

The fact that overall drinking is decreasing is 100% compatible with the drinking rate increasing for some specific age cohort.

csh0 9mo ago

Your quoted paragraphs are not discussing the same trend, your first paragraph is referring to drinking habits in those 65 or older. The second paragraph is discussing drinking habits for all US adults.

hbn 9mo ago
I suppose so. But the leading line before their 5 points made it sound like they were trying to explain why the fall deaths were increasing regardless of age. > Why have deaths from falls, on an age-adjusted basis, risen? There are at least five possible reasons.
- zamadatix 9mo ago
  It's a tricky term, but the definition given towards the top where "age-adjusted" is clickable helps clarify. It's introduced in "But an aging population only partially explains the rise in these deaths. Deaths by falls have risen 2.4-fold on an age-<adjusted basis>. " The <clickable> part in brackets (easy to miss) expands to: > Age-adjusted data helps to compare health data over time or between groups more fairly by accounting for the age differences in populations. For example, suppose Population A has a higher average age than Population B. In that case, age-adjusting ensures that Population A's naturally higher death rate due to age doesn't skew comparisons of overall health between the two. This measurement makes death statistic comparisons more accurate than crude death rates. An "age group" might be "45-54" or "85+" but a "population" would be "all age groups in 2000" or "all age groups in 2023". Age-adjusted here means the differences in the number of people in each population (2000 vs 2023) are normalized to each so we can compare the absolute numbers from each age group directly, not the other way around. There is some immediate follow-up text which helps clarify they do not mean to normalize the age groups themselves together within a single population for comparison: > While they [population age-adjusted fall deaths] have fallen among younger people and only risen slightly among the middle aged, they have risen substantially within every age bracket of the elderly. This all gave me flashbacks to stats class, and I now need to go relax :).