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It is essentially a bond return, with the caveat being that solar PV panels will last 25+ years with some degradation and reduction in output. To your point, th
by toomuchtodo 10mo ago
It is essentially a bond return, with the caveat being that solar PV panels will last 25+ years with some degradation and reduction in output. To your point, the best arrangement (imho) is a standing seam metal roof (40-70 year lifetime) with the panels mounted via friction racking with no roof deck penetrations. This avoids the economic cost of pulling everything off the roof to re-roof, and should outlive any homeowner 40 years of age or older. I also expect labor willing to get on a roof becoming more scarce and expensive over time in the developed world, which I think should be taken into account. Your battery storage can be replaced 10-15 years from now at the end of its service life by anyone with a hand truck.
- systemtest 10mo ago-
- toomuchtodo 10mo agoThis is factually inaccurate. Solar PV panels will continue to produce power at 80-90% of rated output after 25 years, and battery storage will still have 80-90% capacity. I'm sure you can understand that as long as the system is storing and producing power at these levels, its value is not zero.
- systemtest 10mo agoCan you point out what part of what I said is factually inaccurate?
- toomuchtodo 10mo agohttps://magnifina.com/articles/rooftop-solar-yield/ https://magnifina.com/articles/rooftop-solar-yield/ explains it better than me attempting to write a wall of text.
- deleted 10mo ago[deleted]
- triceratops 10mo ago> while the initial principal of your bond investment will remain intact. As long as the bond issuer remains solvent. How much do you trust bonds that yield 9% to retain their full value for 25 years?
- systemtest 10mo agoDon't buy junk bonds. Why are you looking for bonds that yield 9%?
- triceratops 10mo agoFrom the article: "Another way to look at this is that the investment is returning ~9%/year."
- systemtest 10mo agoThat is without accounting for depreciation of the installation.
- triceratops 10mo agoHow do you measure the depreciation? The panels deliver at least 70%, but probably closer to 80%, output after 25 years. The batteries need replacing after maybe 15 years. Assuming that knocks a couple percent points off the return (batteries can only get cheaper and cheaper) that's still a solid 7% long term yield with no default risk. Share your math if you disagree. EDIT: Two more things that will juice the return 1. Grid electricity prices will go up over those 25 years, at the very least tracking inflation. 2. Unlike bond coupon payments, the "return" from a solar installation isn't taxable. Because you're saving money, not getting paid.
- specialist 10mo ago> essentially a bond return You reminded me: David Roberts' often states that a hurdle for electrification and decarbonization projects is connecting them to "slow capital". Stuff like residential, community, solar, battery, heat pumps, appliances, ground source heat, yadda yadda. I gather that there's plenty of "slow capital" perfectly happy with low risk long term modest returns. But these projects are too small to be worth the effort. Probably something about transaction costs. My impression is there's an opportunity to bundle up these projects for the larger/largest investors. Biden's IRA created a "green bank" (RIP); maybe that was its intended function. You're smart about money and finance, so you can probably explain what Roberts is talking about (to noobs like me). https://volts.wtf https://volts.wtf
- toomuchtodo 10mo agoStay tuned, I have an idea to soak up global capital for these projects.