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> There's also not much evidence that any major government in the world wants Iran toppled I’m sorry what? Maybe this is an argument over terminology, but Isra

by zjzkshz 9mo ago

> There's also not much evidence that any major government in the world wants Iran toppled I’m sorry what? Maybe this is an argument over terminology, but Israel absolutely wants Iran toppled in any colloquial definition of the word. This has been their stated goal since the 90s. And much of their activity in the Middle East since then is towards this goal. > and especially Israel --- which has basically depantsed the IRGC --- don't actually have much to gain Again I’m sorry what? Iran has been a major deterrent to their regional hegemony for decades. Remove US support and Israel is destroyed. They need these threats removed so they can end their reliance on US support.

tptacek 9mo ago
I know there's a sizable cohort of online people in the west who are convicted of the idea that Israel exists solely as a US proxy and is held in check only by Iran, but obviously no. Israel --- leave aside all the moral stuff right now --- is a hypercapable advanced high-state-capacity regional nuclear power with an extremely effective military. If they didn't buy arms from us, they'd buy them from someone we liked less. Iran, on the other hand, partly as a result of Khomeinism and the status quo ante of the Iranian Revolution, when the military was a big part of the repression apparatus in the Shah's state, has more or less gutted its official military service branches. As we just saw, Israel literally controls Iran's own airspace. They flew slow drones over Tehran, presumably just as a "fuck you". Iran placed a huge bet on projecting military force through regional proxies --- the "Axis of Resistance". What they have instead of a modern military is the IRGC. See how that went for them!
- zjzkshz 9mo ago
  What point are you trying to make here? I said Israel obviously wants Iran gone and stands to gain a lot from doing so. You didn’t address either of those points, which are extremely relevant when trying to understand why foreign powers want this regime removed and would be involved in its removal. I agree Israel is not a US proxy (the tail wags the dog in this relationship), but freeing oneself from needing the (or any) dog is a sizable gain. Regarding Iran I think they know this. Their military is structured to operate in a post regime world. But that world doesn’t have the capacity to produce nuclear weapons, which is the key goal Israel is after. Iran with nuclear weapons likely ensures the regimes existence for the foreseeable future.
  - tptacek 9mo ago
    You literally just asked me to write that. I didn't have a point to make; I was answering a question you just asked.
    - zjzkshz 9mo ago
      [dead]
  - lolc 9mo ago
    The general idea is that Iran would be more effective as a regional power if it wasn't ruled by islamists. And that at least the current government of Israel likes incompetent neighbours that make them look good. Not a difficult argument in my view. Unless you're stuck believing what they say instead of observing what they do.
    - randomNumber7 9mo ago
      It seems pretty reasonably that Israel would be happy with a neighbor that doesn't call for its annihilation out of ideologic reasons.
- pazimzadeh 9mo ago
  > There's also not much evidence that any major government in the world wants Iran toppled ...proceeds to describe how Israel is a major government
  - tptacek 9mo ago
    And?
    - pazimzadeh 9mo ago
      Israel doesn't want Iran toppled?
      - tptacek 9mo ago
        I don't think there's really clear evidence. They're geopolitical adversaries, but Iran's ability to project force has been decimated over the last 2 years, to the point where Israel literally controls Iran's airspace. They have not much more to gain from further injury to the Iranian regime, and something to lose from regional instability. (I don't think this analysis speaks well of Israel, for what it's worth, but I don't really think about countries in those terms anyways.)
        pazimzadeh 9mo ago
        Are you saying that Israel's public statements (and actions) can't be taken at face value? or are you not aware of these: Netanyahu Urges Iranians To Rise Up Against Their Leaders https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JcbYzBImi4c https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JcbYzBImi4c Israel hopes for regime change in Iran https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2026/01/11/israel-hopes-for-regime-change-in-iran#:~:text=And%20so%20Mr%20Netanyahu%2C%20who,are%20best%20done%20from%20within.%E2%80%9D https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2026/01/11/... Israel strikes state-run Iranian TV during live broadcast after Iranian missiles kill 8 in Israel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0RkR46Wlv6g https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0RkR46Wlv6g Inside Israel's attack on Iran's Evin Prison https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czd0e23j9q8o https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czd0e23j9q8o What is the point of attacking a TV station and a prison, if not for regime change? For the record, I agree with you that Israel has little "to gain from further injury to the Iranian regime, and something to lose from regional instability." I just don't think the people in charge of Israel see it that way. I think they feel they have a short window to achieve certain objectives they've wanted for a long time while Trump is in power). And I think they prefer to have regional instability - a bunch of weaker chess pieces that they can play against each other - like how they supported both sides of the Iran-Iraq war in the 80's, funded Hamas, ISIS, and ISIS-derived militias to achieve short-term goals etc.. In case you didn't know about the last few points, here are some links: Netanyahu defends arming Palestinian clans accused of ties with jihadist groups https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/06/netanyahu-defends-arming-palestinian-clans-accused-of-ties-with-jihadist-groups https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/06/netanyahu-defe... Report: Israel treating al-Qaida fighters wounded in Syria civil war https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/report-israel-treating-al-qaida-fighters-wounded-in-syria-civil-war-393862 https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/report-israel-treating-al-... Ex-Mossad head on Israel medical aid to al-Nusra Front - UpFront https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vweHtxqnh-Y https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vweHtxqnh-Y The Israeli Army Is Allowing Gangs in Gaza to Loot Aid Trucks and Extort Protection Fees From Drivers https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-11-11/ty-article/.premium/the-idf-is-allowing-gaza-gangs-to-loot-aid-trucks-and-extort-protection-fees-from-drivers/00000193-17fb-d50e-a3db-57ff16af0000 https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-11-11/ty-article/.p... Gangs looting Gaza aid operate in areas under Israeli control, aid groups say https://archive.is/20250606105700/https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/11/18/gaza-looting-aid-convoys-israel-famine/#selection-283.0-286.0 https://archive.is/20250606105700/https://www.washingtonpost... “Anyone who wants to thwart the establishment of a Palestinian state has to support bolstering Hamas and transferring money to Hamas,” Netanyahu told his Likud party’s Knesset members in March 2019. “This is part of our strategy" https://x.com/haaretzcom/status/1711329340804186619?s=46&t=sSiKaqnl4h3D5k9DkxYT6w https://x.com/haaretzcom/status/1711329340804186619?s=46&t=s... A Brief History of the Netanyahu-Hamas Alliance https://archive.ph/qHya5 https://archive.ph/qHya5 By the way, regarding "Israel literally controls Iran's airspace" - Iran don't really have an air force. Their deliberate strategy given their limited resources was to focus on a ballistic missile program and all things considered this has worked ok. By the way, Israel failed to deliver a knock-out blow to Iran even when they had the element of surprise with an attack that was planned 18 months in advance (drafted during the Biden administration) yet somehow Iran was able to begin answering within 48 hours and do enough damage (which required penetrating anti-missile defenses of several major powers) that Israel agreed to a cease-fire. After the 12-day war, China immediately sold Iran a number of J10-C fighters and air defense options, but it takes months to deliver/train all of them. So Israel is incentivized to deliver a knock-out blow to Iran before this window closes as well. In other words, Israel's war is the 'cause its own necessity' (1). 1 - The Acquired Immune System-A Vantage from Beneath https://www.cell.com/immunity/fulltext/S1074-7613(04)00307-3 https://www.cell.com/immunity/fulltext/S1074-7613(04)00307-3

by zjzkshz 9mo ago

tptacek 9mo ago

I know there's a sizable cohort of online people in the west who are convicted of the idea that Israel exists solely as a US proxy and is held in check only by Iran, but obviously no. Israel --- leave aside all the moral stuff right now --- is a hypercapable advanced high-state-capacity regional nuclear power with an extremely effective military. If they didn't buy arms from us, they'd buy them from someone we liked less. Iran, on the other hand, partly as a result of Khomeinism and the status quo ante of the Iranian Revolution, when the military was a big part of the repression apparatus in the Shah's state, has more or less gutted its official military service branches. As we just saw, Israel literally controls Iran's own airspace. They flew slow drones over Tehran, presumably just as a "fuck you". Iran placed a huge bet on projecting military force through regional proxies --- the "Axis of Resistance". What they have instead of a modern military is the IRGC. See how that went for them!

zjzkshz 9mo ago
What point are you trying to make here? I said Israel obviously wants Iran gone and stands to gain a lot from doing so. You didn’t address either of those points, which are extremely relevant when trying to understand why foreign powers want this regime removed and would be involved in its removal. I agree Israel is not a US proxy (the tail wags the dog in this relationship), but freeing oneself from needing the (or any) dog is a sizable gain. Regarding Iran I think they know this. Their military is structured to operate in a post regime world. But that world doesn’t have the capacity to produce nuclear weapons, which is the key goal Israel is after. Iran with nuclear weapons likely ensures the regimes existence for the foreseeable future.
- tptacek 9mo ago
  You literally just asked me to write that. I didn't have a point to make; I was answering a question you just asked.
  - zjzkshz 9mo ago
    [dead]
- lolc 9mo ago
  The general idea is that Iran would be more effective as a regional power if it wasn't ruled by islamists. And that at least the current government of Israel likes incompetent neighbours that make them look good. Not a difficult argument in my view. Unless you're stuck believing what they say instead of observing what they do.
  - randomNumber7 9mo ago
    It seems pretty reasonably that Israel would be happy with a neighbor that doesn't call for its annihilation out of ideologic reasons.
pazimzadeh 9mo ago
> There's also not much evidence that any major government in the world wants Iran toppled ...proceeds to describe how Israel is a major government
- tptacek 9mo ago
  And?
  - pazimzadeh 9mo ago
    Israel doesn't want Iran toppled?
    - tptacek 9mo ago
      I don't think there's really clear evidence. They're geopolitical adversaries, but Iran's ability to project force has been decimated over the last 2 years, to the point where Israel literally controls Iran's airspace. They have not much more to gain from further injury to the Iranian regime, and something to lose from regional instability. (I don't think this analysis speaks well of Israel, for what it's worth, but I don't really think about countries in those terms anyways.)
      - pazimzadeh 9mo ago
        Are you saying that Israel's public statements (and actions) can't be taken at face value? or are you not aware of these: Netanyahu Urges Iranians To Rise Up Against Their Leaders https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JcbYzBImi4c https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JcbYzBImi4c Israel hopes for regime change in Iran https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2026/01/11/israel-hopes-for-regime-change-in-iran#:~:text=And%20so%20Mr%20Netanyahu%2C%20who,are%20best%20done%20from%20within.%E2%80%9D https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2026/01/11/... Israel strikes state-run Iranian TV during live broadcast after Iranian missiles kill 8 in Israel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0RkR46Wlv6g https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0RkR46Wlv6g Inside Israel's attack on Iran's Evin Prison https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czd0e23j9q8o https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czd0e23j9q8o What is the point of attacking a TV station and a prison, if not for regime change? For the record, I agree with you that Israel has little "to gain from further injury to the Iranian regime, and something to lose from regional instability." I just don't think the people in charge of Israel see it that way. I think they feel they have a short window to achieve certain objectives they've wanted for a long time while Trump is in power). And I think they prefer to have regional instability - a bunch of weaker chess pieces that they can play against each other - like how they supported both sides of the Iran-Iraq war in the 80's, funded Hamas, ISIS, and ISIS-derived militias to achieve short-term goals etc.. In case you didn't know about the last few points, here are some links: Netanyahu defends arming Palestinian clans accused of ties with jihadist groups https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/06/netanyahu-defends-arming-palestinian-clans-accused-of-ties-with-jihadist-groups https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/06/netanyahu-defe... Report: Israel treating al-Qaida fighters wounded in Syria civil war https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/report-israel-treating-al-qaida-fighters-wounded-in-syria-civil-war-393862 https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/report-israel-treating-al-... Ex-Mossad head on Israel medical aid to al-Nusra Front - UpFront https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vweHtxqnh-Y https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vweHtxqnh-Y The Israeli Army Is Allowing Gangs in Gaza to Loot Aid Trucks and Extort Protection Fees From Drivers https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-11-11/ty-article/.premium/the-idf-is-allowing-gaza-gangs-to-loot-aid-trucks-and-extort-protection-fees-from-drivers/00000193-17fb-d50e-a3db-57ff16af0000 https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-11-11/ty-article/.p... Gangs looting Gaza aid operate in areas under Israeli control, aid groups say https://archive.is/20250606105700/https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/11/18/gaza-looting-aid-convoys-israel-famine/#selection-283.0-286.0 https://archive.is/20250606105700/https://www.washingtonpost... “Anyone who wants to thwart the establishment of a Palestinian state has to support bolstering Hamas and transferring money to Hamas,” Netanyahu told his Likud party’s Knesset members in March 2019. “This is part of our strategy" https://x.com/haaretzcom/status/1711329340804186619?s=46&t=sSiKaqnl4h3D5k9DkxYT6w https://x.com/haaretzcom/status/1711329340804186619?s=46&t=s... A Brief History of the Netanyahu-Hamas Alliance https://archive.ph/qHya5 https://archive.ph/qHya5 By the way, regarding "Israel literally controls Iran's airspace" - Iran don't really have an air force. Their deliberate strategy given their limited resources was to focus on a ballistic missile program and all things considered this has worked ok. By the way, Israel failed to deliver a knock-out blow to Iran even when they had the element of surprise with an attack that was planned 18 months in advance (drafted during the Biden administration) yet somehow Iran was able to begin answering within 48 hours and do enough damage (which required penetrating anti-missile defenses of several major powers) that Israel agreed to a cease-fire. After the 12-day war, China immediately sold Iran a number of J10-C fighters and air defense options, but it takes months to deliver/train all of them. So Israel is incentivized to deliver a knock-out blow to Iran before this window closes as well. In other words, Israel's war is the 'cause its own necessity' (1). 1 - The Acquired Immune System-A Vantage from Beneath https://www.cell.com/immunity/fulltext/S1074-7613(04)00307-3 https://www.cell.com/immunity/fulltext/S1074-7613(04)00307-3