6 ms·

I agree that the anti-regime movement is not all the product of foreign intervention, but I'd say some (and even wager majority) are. Not acknowledging foreign

by ebbi 9mo ago

I agree that the anti-regime movement is not all the product of foreign intervention, but I'd say some (and even wager majority) are. Not acknowledging foreign intervention in this aspect would not give a fuller picture of the dynamics.

tptacek 9mo ago
I think that's an extraordinary claim.
- ebbi 9mo ago
  Why do you think it's extraordinary? I know quite a lot of Iranians, and when I talked about this with them about a year ago, their lay of the land given their own opinions and their wider networks opinion is that the majority of Iranians are pro-regime change but NOT at the hands of a US/Israeli intervention. There are anti-regime segments that are pro-US/Israel intervention, but they think this is a minority and they think most of them are products of foreign intervention. After Israel bombed Iran last year, there were a few Israeli cells that were uncovered in Iran, so suggesting there is some foreign intervention isn't out of the ordinary.
  - tptacek 9mo ago
    The protests are, by credible reporting, huge, reflected in the scale of the number of arrests and fatalities. Their antecedents include sky-high unemployment, the highest inflation rates in the world, and water and power rationing --- far more severe and far more directly material conditions than what preceded the 2022 protests. Diverse outlets have the signal chant of the protesters "Neither Gaza Nor Lebanon, My Life Only For Iran", which correlates well with the belief the the IRGC is effectively an Iranian version of the KGB, a second "inner society" whose large membership has preferential access to everything ordinary Iranians don't. Some of this is disputable, much of it isn't. Meanwhile: * There's no evidence that foreign powers are behind these protests, just narratives. The track record on unsupported but convincing-sounding narratives everywhere is pretty bad; nowhere is it worse than in this part of the world. * There's no evidence that the protests themselves are pro-US (and certainly not pro-Israel; most of the protesters probably don't like Israel!). They just want water, jobs, and currency that can reliably buy food. * There's also not much evidence that any major government in the world wants Iran toppled. Iran is incredibly weak right now. Regional powers like Turkey, Saudi, and especially Israel --- which has basically depantsed the IRGC --- don't actually have much to gain from an Iranian overthrow, but the whole region has a lot to lose from instability. So yeah, I'd say: pretty extraordinary claim --- again, that claim being, "the anti-regime movement is the product of foreign intervention". I want to keep saying: I don't think the protests will be successful. It's a state specifically designed to prevent protests movements like these from being successful! They may suck at air defense, but I don't think they're bad at putting down rebellions.
    - zjzkshz 9mo ago
      > There's also not much evidence that any major government in the world wants Iran toppled I’m sorry what? Maybe this is an argument over terminology, but Israel absolutely wants Iran toppled in any colloquial definition of the word. This has been their stated goal since the 90s. And much of their activity in the Middle East since then is towards this goal. > and especially Israel --- which has basically depantsed the IRGC --- don't actually have much to gain Again I’m sorry what? Iran has been a major deterrent to their regional hegemony for decades. Remove US support and Israel is destroyed. They need these threats removed so they can end their reliance on US support.
      - tptacek 9mo ago
        I know there's a sizable cohort of online people in the west who are convicted of the idea that Israel exists solely as a US proxy and is held in check only by Iran, but obviously no. Israel --- leave aside all the moral stuff right now --- is a hypercapable advanced high-state-capacity regional nuclear power with an extremely effective military. If they didn't buy arms from us, they'd buy them from someone we liked less. Iran, on the other hand, partly as a result of Khomeinism and the status quo ante of the Iranian Revolution, when the military was a big part of the repression apparatus in the Shah's state, has more or less gutted its official military service branches. As we just saw, Israel literally controls Iran's own airspace. They flew slow drones over Tehran, presumably just as a "fuck you". Iran placed a huge bet on projecting military force through regional proxies --- the "Axis of Resistance". What they have instead of a modern military is the IRGC. See how that went for them!
        zjzkshz 9mo ago
        What point are you trying to make here? I said Israel obviously wants Iran gone and stands to gain a lot from doing so. You didn’t address either of those points, which are extremely relevant when trying to understand why foreign powers want this regime removed and would be involved in its removal. I agree Israel is not a US proxy (the tail wags the dog in this relationship), but freeing oneself from needing the (or any) dog is a sizable gain. Regarding Iran I think they know this. Their military is structured to operate in a post regime world. But that world doesn’t have the capacity to produce nuclear weapons, which is the key goal Israel is after. Iran with nuclear weapons likely ensures the regimes existence for the foreseeable future.
  - SirFatty 9mo ago
    A year ago. Not much has happened in that area over the last year...
  - EbbiURBiSharaf 9mo ago
    [dead]
  - throwaway37426 9mo ago
    > After Israel bombed Iran last year, there were a few Israeli cells that were uncovered in Iran, so suggesting there is some foreign intervention isn't out of the ordinary. What a leap of logic. I’d wager not being able to afford basic necessities and also your women being killed by morality police, not having any political freedom, not being able to decide how your government is run, etc. are enough incentives. Don’t you think the people there have enough agency to want all of these? If Israel wanted to intervene, it looks like Iranian government is doing their work for them by making Iran a living hell for its people.
- Qem 9mo ago
  Mossad itself confirmed boots on the ground: “We are with you. Not only from a distance and verbally. We are with you in the field.”. See https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-881733 https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-881733
  - tptacek 9mo ago
    The claim isn't "Mossad has boots on the ground". Everybody agrees the Mossad is in Iran, and the IRGC is in Israel.

by ebbi 9mo ago

tptacek 9mo ago

I think that's an extraordinary claim.

ebbi 9mo ago
Why do you think it's extraordinary? I know quite a lot of Iranians, and when I talked about this with them about a year ago, their lay of the land given their own opinions and their wider networks opinion is that the majority of Iranians are pro-regime change but NOT at the hands of a US/Israeli intervention. There are anti-regime segments that are pro-US/Israel intervention, but they think this is a minority and they think most of them are products of foreign intervention. After Israel bombed Iran last year, there were a few Israeli cells that were uncovered in Iran, so suggesting there is some foreign intervention isn't out of the ordinary.
- tptacek 9mo ago
  The protests are, by credible reporting, huge, reflected in the scale of the number of arrests and fatalities. Their antecedents include sky-high unemployment, the highest inflation rates in the world, and water and power rationing --- far more severe and far more directly material conditions than what preceded the 2022 protests. Diverse outlets have the signal chant of the protesters "Neither Gaza Nor Lebanon, My Life Only For Iran", which correlates well with the belief the the IRGC is effectively an Iranian version of the KGB, a second "inner society" whose large membership has preferential access to everything ordinary Iranians don't. Some of this is disputable, much of it isn't. Meanwhile: * There's no evidence that foreign powers are behind these protests, just narratives. The track record on unsupported but convincing-sounding narratives everywhere is pretty bad; nowhere is it worse than in this part of the world. * There's no evidence that the protests themselves are pro-US (and certainly not pro-Israel; most of the protesters probably don't like Israel!). They just want water, jobs, and currency that can reliably buy food. * There's also not much evidence that any major government in the world wants Iran toppled. Iran is incredibly weak right now. Regional powers like Turkey, Saudi, and especially Israel --- which has basically depantsed the IRGC --- don't actually have much to gain from an Iranian overthrow, but the whole region has a lot to lose from instability. So yeah, I'd say: pretty extraordinary claim --- again, that claim being, "the anti-regime movement is the product of foreign intervention". I want to keep saying: I don't think the protests will be successful. It's a state specifically designed to prevent protests movements like these from being successful! They may suck at air defense, but I don't think they're bad at putting down rebellions.
  - zjzkshz 9mo ago
    > There's also not much evidence that any major government in the world wants Iran toppled I’m sorry what? Maybe this is an argument over terminology, but Israel absolutely wants Iran toppled in any colloquial definition of the word. This has been their stated goal since the 90s. And much of their activity in the Middle East since then is towards this goal. > and especially Israel --- which has basically depantsed the IRGC --- don't actually have much to gain Again I’m sorry what? Iran has been a major deterrent to their regional hegemony for decades. Remove US support and Israel is destroyed. They need these threats removed so they can end their reliance on US support.
    - tptacek 9mo ago
      I know there's a sizable cohort of online people in the west who are convicted of the idea that Israel exists solely as a US proxy and is held in check only by Iran, but obviously no. Israel --- leave aside all the moral stuff right now --- is a hypercapable advanced high-state-capacity regional nuclear power with an extremely effective military. If they didn't buy arms from us, they'd buy them from someone we liked less. Iran, on the other hand, partly as a result of Khomeinism and the status quo ante of the Iranian Revolution, when the military was a big part of the repression apparatus in the Shah's state, has more or less gutted its official military service branches. As we just saw, Israel literally controls Iran's own airspace. They flew slow drones over Tehran, presumably just as a "fuck you". Iran placed a huge bet on projecting military force through regional proxies --- the "Axis of Resistance". What they have instead of a modern military is the IRGC. See how that went for them!
      - zjzkshz 9mo ago
        What point are you trying to make here? I said Israel obviously wants Iran gone and stands to gain a lot from doing so. You didn’t address either of those points, which are extremely relevant when trying to understand why foreign powers want this regime removed and would be involved in its removal. I agree Israel is not a US proxy (the tail wags the dog in this relationship), but freeing oneself from needing the (or any) dog is a sizable gain. Regarding Iran I think they know this. Their military is structured to operate in a post regime world. But that world doesn’t have the capacity to produce nuclear weapons, which is the key goal Israel is after. Iran with nuclear weapons likely ensures the regimes existence for the foreseeable future.
- SirFatty 9mo ago
  A year ago. Not much has happened in that area over the last year...
- EbbiURBiSharaf 9mo ago
  [dead]
- throwaway37426 9mo ago
  > After Israel bombed Iran last year, there were a few Israeli cells that were uncovered in Iran, so suggesting there is some foreign intervention isn't out of the ordinary. What a leap of logic. I’d wager not being able to afford basic necessities and also your women being killed by morality police, not having any political freedom, not being able to decide how your government is run, etc. are enough incentives. Don’t you think the people there have enough agency to want all of these? If Israel wanted to intervene, it looks like Iranian government is doing their work for them by making Iran a living hell for its people.
Qem 9mo ago
Mossad itself confirmed boots on the ground: “We are with you. Not only from a distance and verbally. We are with you in the field.”. See https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-881733 https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-881733
- tptacek 9mo ago
  The claim isn't "Mossad has boots on the ground". Everybody agrees the Mossad is in Iran, and the IRGC is in Israel.