5 ms·

It's possible, but remember that in an absence of any political or military rivals, you don't need the loyalty of the populace, only the military and police.

literalAardvark 9mo ago
Be that as it may, Iran has plenty of rivals.
- tptacek 9mo ago
  It has plenty of adversaries. It doesn't really credibly project force, can't even control its own airspace, and its proxy network is in shambles.
jjk166 9mo ago
Well it sounds like the whole issue is that the regime has been tanking their economy due to years of funneling money to the Revolutionary Guard, and it's lead to them having to restrict more and more who they can provide favoritism to. It's unclear whether that means it's becoming more difficult to placate the IRGC or there are elements in the IRGC getting greedy, but either way it indicates the loyalty of the military and police can't be taken for granted.
EA-3167 9mo ago
People love to remember the hits and forget the misses. They'll happily chat about how "hunger was the key to the French Revolution" while forgetting how many starved in the USSR, North Korea, China, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia, etc... They love to imagine that the suffering of a populace is some guarantee of both a revolution and the success of that revolution. For some reason the near-total destruction of Syria and ongoing conflicts in the MENA region don't seem to register. At this point I'm convinced that social media creates an environment that rewards wishcasting more than logical analysis based on precedent.
- swat535 9mo ago
  Iranian here (speaking from outside), fair but you have to consider the circumstances. The regime currently is in its weakest position. Russia is busy with Ukraine, many of top IRGC commanders assassinated, HAMAS is in disarray, and their nuclear program has been crippled. The water shortage was the straw that broke the camel's back. Years of sanctions, economical downturn and abuses by the Regime piled up to the point of no return. Based on my last contact with my family, our people have crossed a line and there is no going back. What Westerners don't realize is that if your back is against the wall, all you have left is putting your life on line. People rather die trying because truthfully, what is the alternative?
  - rootusrootus 9mo ago
    It does seem like there is a point -- and running out of water would be up there near that point, in addition to a collapse of the economy, where people get motivated to make change happen even at the risk to their own lives. I mean, you are going to die anyway, right? I say that from the luxury of my very safe keyboard, of course. I hope your family is staying as safe as possible. Can't imagine the stress (I get tangled up enough in our own US gov't shenanigans and that pales in comparison to Iran right now).
    - EA-3167 9mo ago
      If you look at the history of places like Iran, or more recently in Syria and Venezuela, the conditions you're describing are just as likely to lead to a mass exodus and a civil war of the remainders as anything like a successful revolution. The "Arab Spring" was also driven by issues with water and the subsequent impact on the local economic situations, and they KIND OF succeeded... for a while. Now it's all back the way it was, or worse. The idea that misery inevitably leads to revolution is driven by narrative selection, not reality. In reality countries like the DPRK for example simply ate the cost of a million+ starving to death and then went 'happily' onward. There's a reason that successful and lasting revolutions are exceptional, not the rule.
  - amypetrik214 9mo ago

literalAardvark 9mo ago

Be that as it may, Iran has plenty of rivals.

tptacek 9mo ago
It has plenty of adversaries. It doesn't really credibly project force, can't even control its own airspace, and its proxy network is in shambles.

jjk166 9mo ago

Well it sounds like the whole issue is that the regime has been tanking their economy due to years of funneling money to the Revolutionary Guard, and it's lead to them having to restrict more and more who they can provide favoritism to. It's unclear whether that means it's becoming more difficult to placate the IRGC or there are elements in the IRGC getting greedy, but either way it indicates the loyalty of the military and police can't be taken for granted.

EA-3167 9mo ago

People love to remember the hits and forget the misses. They'll happily chat about how "hunger was the key to the French Revolution" while forgetting how many starved in the USSR, North Korea, China, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia, etc... They love to imagine that the suffering of a populace is some guarantee of both a revolution and the success of that revolution. For some reason the near-total destruction of Syria and ongoing conflicts in the MENA region don't seem to register. At this point I'm convinced that social media creates an environment that rewards wishcasting more than logical analysis based on precedent.

swat535 9mo ago
Iranian here (speaking from outside), fair but you have to consider the circumstances. The regime currently is in its weakest position. Russia is busy with Ukraine, many of top IRGC commanders assassinated, HAMAS is in disarray, and their nuclear program has been crippled. The water shortage was the straw that broke the camel's back. Years of sanctions, economical downturn and abuses by the Regime piled up to the point of no return. Based on my last contact with my family, our people have crossed a line and there is no going back. What Westerners don't realize is that if your back is against the wall, all you have left is putting your life on line. People rather die trying because truthfully, what is the alternative?
- rootusrootus 9mo ago
  It does seem like there is a point -- and running out of water would be up there near that point, in addition to a collapse of the economy, where people get motivated to make change happen even at the risk to their own lives. I mean, you are going to die anyway, right? I say that from the luxury of my very safe keyboard, of course. I hope your family is staying as safe as possible. Can't imagine the stress (I get tangled up enough in our own US gov't shenanigans and that pales in comparison to Iran right now).
  - EA-3167 9mo ago
    If you look at the history of places like Iran, or more recently in Syria and Venezuela, the conditions you're describing are just as likely to lead to a mass exodus and a civil war of the remainders as anything like a successful revolution. The "Arab Spring" was also driven by issues with water and the subsequent impact on the local economic situations, and they KIND OF succeeded... for a while. Now it's all back the way it was, or worse. The idea that misery inevitably leads to revolution is driven by narrative selection, not reality. In reality countries like the DPRK for example simply ate the cost of a million+ starving to death and then went 'happily' onward. There's a reason that successful and lasting revolutions are exceptional, not the rule.
- amypetrik214 9mo ago