6 ms·

I'm not so sure. There are plenty of pro-regime protests in Iran currently, and the general replies on interviews I've seen is "yes we have our problems, but we

by ebbi 9mo ago

I'm not so sure. There are plenty of pro-regime protests in Iran currently, and the general replies on interviews I've seen is "yes we have our problems, but we don't want Israel and the US fixing it", which tracks with a lot of sentiment I've heard from Iranian friends of mine. There was also a three year old killed by anti-regime protestors which has heightened the sentiments of pro-regime protestors.

tptacek 9mo ago
I don't doubt this is true but would also note that high-profile online outlets --- Ryan Grim's Drop Site News, most notably --- have run pieces talking about how huge anti-government protests are in fact pro-government protests, when that has turned out to be flatly false. (I don't know where they get this stuff). The Iranian anti-regime movement is very well established and is not the product of foreign intervention. It's actually not all that clear that foreign actors in the region favor regime change! (I'm not holding out much hope that these protests will actually topple the regime, though it would be amazing if they did.)
- ebbi 9mo ago
  I agree that the anti-regime movement is not all the product of foreign intervention, but I'd say some (and even wager majority) are. Not acknowledging foreign intervention in this aspect would not give a fuller picture of the dynamics.
  - tptacek 9mo ago
    I think that's an extraordinary claim.
    - ebbi 9mo ago
      Why do you think it's extraordinary? I know quite a lot of Iranians, and when I talked about this with them about a year ago, their lay of the land given their own opinions and their wider networks opinion is that the majority of Iranians are pro-regime change but NOT at the hands of a US/Israeli intervention. There are anti-regime segments that are pro-US/Israel intervention, but they think this is a minority and they think most of them are products of foreign intervention. After Israel bombed Iran last year, there were a few Israeli cells that were uncovered in Iran, so suggesting there is some foreign intervention isn't out of the ordinary.
      - tptacek 9mo ago
        The protests are, by credible reporting, huge, reflected in the scale of the number of arrests and fatalities. Their antecedents include sky-high unemployment, the highest inflation rates in the world, and water and power rationing --- far more severe and far more directly material conditions than what preceded the 2022 protests. Diverse outlets have the signal chant of the protesters "Neither Gaza Nor Lebanon, My Life Only For Iran", which correlates well with the belief the the IRGC is effectively an Iranian version of the KGB, a second "inner society" whose large membership has preferential access to everything ordinary Iranians don't. Some of this is disputable, much of it isn't. Meanwhile: * There's no evidence that foreign powers are behind these protests, just narratives. The track record on unsupported but convincing-sounding narratives everywhere is pretty bad; nowhere is it worse than in this part of the world. * There's no evidence that the protests themselves are pro-US (and certainly not pro-Israel; most of the protesters probably don't like Israel!). They just want water, jobs, and currency that can reliably buy food. * There's also not much evidence that any major government in the world wants Iran toppled. Iran is incredibly weak right now. Regional powers like Turkey, Saudi, and especially Israel --- which has basically depantsed the IRGC --- don't actually have much to gain from an Iranian overthrow, but the whole region has a lot to lose from instability. So yeah, I'd say: pretty extraordinary claim --- again, that claim being, "the anti-regime movement is the product of foreign intervention". I want to keep saying: I don't think the protests will be successful. It's a state specifically designed to prevent protests movements like these from being successful! They may suck at air defense, but I don't think they're bad at putting down rebellions.
        zjzkshz 9mo ago
        > There's also not much evidence that any major government in the world wants Iran toppled I’m sorry what? Maybe this is an argument over terminology, but Israel absolutely wants Iran toppled in any colloquial definition of the word. This has been their stated goal since the 90s. And much of their activity in the Middle East since then is towards this goal. > and especially Israel --- which has basically depantsed the IRGC --- don't actually have much to gain Again I’m sorry what? Iran has been a major deterrent to their regional hegemony for decades. Remove US support and Israel is destroyed. They need these threats removed so they can end their reliance on US support.
    - Qem 9mo ago
      Mossad itself confirmed boots on the ground: “We are with you. Not only from a distance and verbally. We are with you in the field.”. See https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-881733 https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-881733
      - tptacek 9mo ago
        The claim isn't "Mossad has boots on the ground". Everybody agrees the Mossad is in Iran, and the IRGC is in Israel.
- Sabinus 9mo ago
  Ryan Grim isn't exactly a stellar journalist.
  - tptacek 9mo ago
    I don't like him but I'm literally asking: where did that assertion come from.
red-iron-pine 9mo ago
I don't think the US or Israel want to fix it, I think they want a pretext for bombing Iranian military sites to aggressively defang
- ebbi 9mo ago
  I agree - their primary aim is to defang, but the regime change will need to follow so that they can put someone in power that they can control.
- tptacek 9mo ago
  I don't think either the US or Israel is all that worried about "defanging" Iran's actual military. Their proxies, like Hezbollah, Assadist Syria, Ansar Allah, and Kataib Hezbollah? Sure. But they've mostly already accomplished that. I think Iran's actual military is kind of a joke in military circles?
  - FergusArgyll 9mo ago
    Israel definitely wants to get rid of Irans ballistic missiles. That said; if you believe (as do some commenters here) that Israel could ignite nationwide protests with 100,000s of people whenever they want, then they definitely don't have to worry about Irans army
    - tptacek 9mo ago
      I don't believe Israel can ignite nationwide protest and sort of assume, as a military/strategic matter, that Israel's primary response to Iran's MRBM capabilities is deterrent. Israel control's Iran's skies. I think the direct military part of this conflict is basically over. I'm just a message board commenter, this is just a take.
iowemoretohim 9mo ago
Any source for this?

by ebbi 9mo ago

tptacek 9mo ago

I don't doubt this is true but would also note that high-profile online outlets --- Ryan Grim's Drop Site News, most notably --- have run pieces talking about how huge anti-government protests are in fact pro-government protests, when that has turned out to be flatly false. (I don't know where they get this stuff). The Iranian anti-regime movement is very well established and is not the product of foreign intervention. It's actually not all that clear that foreign actors in the region favor regime change! (I'm not holding out much hope that these protests will actually topple the regime, though it would be amazing if they did.)

ebbi 9mo ago
I agree that the anti-regime movement is not all the product of foreign intervention, but I'd say some (and even wager majority) are. Not acknowledging foreign intervention in this aspect would not give a fuller picture of the dynamics.
- tptacek 9mo ago
  I think that's an extraordinary claim.
  - ebbi 9mo ago
    Why do you think it's extraordinary? I know quite a lot of Iranians, and when I talked about this with them about a year ago, their lay of the land given their own opinions and their wider networks opinion is that the majority of Iranians are pro-regime change but NOT at the hands of a US/Israeli intervention. There are anti-regime segments that are pro-US/Israel intervention, but they think this is a minority and they think most of them are products of foreign intervention. After Israel bombed Iran last year, there were a few Israeli cells that were uncovered in Iran, so suggesting there is some foreign intervention isn't out of the ordinary.
    - tptacek 9mo ago
      The protests are, by credible reporting, huge, reflected in the scale of the number of arrests and fatalities. Their antecedents include sky-high unemployment, the highest inflation rates in the world, and water and power rationing --- far more severe and far more directly material conditions than what preceded the 2022 protests. Diverse outlets have the signal chant of the protesters "Neither Gaza Nor Lebanon, My Life Only For Iran", which correlates well with the belief the the IRGC is effectively an Iranian version of the KGB, a second "inner society" whose large membership has preferential access to everything ordinary Iranians don't. Some of this is disputable, much of it isn't. Meanwhile: * There's no evidence that foreign powers are behind these protests, just narratives. The track record on unsupported but convincing-sounding narratives everywhere is pretty bad; nowhere is it worse than in this part of the world. * There's no evidence that the protests themselves are pro-US (and certainly not pro-Israel; most of the protesters probably don't like Israel!). They just want water, jobs, and currency that can reliably buy food. * There's also not much evidence that any major government in the world wants Iran toppled. Iran is incredibly weak right now. Regional powers like Turkey, Saudi, and especially Israel --- which has basically depantsed the IRGC --- don't actually have much to gain from an Iranian overthrow, but the whole region has a lot to lose from instability. So yeah, I'd say: pretty extraordinary claim --- again, that claim being, "the anti-regime movement is the product of foreign intervention". I want to keep saying: I don't think the protests will be successful. It's a state specifically designed to prevent protests movements like these from being successful! They may suck at air defense, but I don't think they're bad at putting down rebellions.
      - zjzkshz 9mo ago
        > There's also not much evidence that any major government in the world wants Iran toppled I’m sorry what? Maybe this is an argument over terminology, but Israel absolutely wants Iran toppled in any colloquial definition of the word. This has been their stated goal since the 90s. And much of their activity in the Middle East since then is towards this goal. > and especially Israel --- which has basically depantsed the IRGC --- don't actually have much to gain Again I’m sorry what? Iran has been a major deterrent to their regional hegemony for decades. Remove US support and Israel is destroyed. They need these threats removed so they can end their reliance on US support.
  - Qem 9mo ago
    Mossad itself confirmed boots on the ground: “We are with you. Not only from a distance and verbally. We are with you in the field.”. See https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-881733 https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-881733
    - tptacek 9mo ago
      The claim isn't "Mossad has boots on the ground". Everybody agrees the Mossad is in Iran, and the IRGC is in Israel.
Sabinus 9mo ago
Ryan Grim isn't exactly a stellar journalist.
- tptacek 9mo ago
  I don't like him but I'm literally asking: where did that assertion come from.

red-iron-pine 9mo ago

I don't think the US or Israel want to fix it, I think they want a pretext for bombing Iranian military sites to aggressively defang

ebbi 9mo ago
I agree - their primary aim is to defang, but the regime change will need to follow so that they can put someone in power that they can control.
tptacek 9mo ago
I don't think either the US or Israel is all that worried about "defanging" Iran's actual military. Their proxies, like Hezbollah, Assadist Syria, Ansar Allah, and Kataib Hezbollah? Sure. But they've mostly already accomplished that. I think Iran's actual military is kind of a joke in military circles?
- FergusArgyll 9mo ago
  Israel definitely wants to get rid of Irans ballistic missiles. That said; if you believe (as do some commenters here) that Israel could ignite nationwide protests with 100,000s of people whenever they want, then they definitely don't have to worry about Irans army
  - tptacek 9mo ago
    I don't believe Israel can ignite nationwide protest and sort of assume, as a military/strategic matter, that Israel's primary response to Iran's MRBM capabilities is deterrent. Israel control's Iran's skies. I think the direct military part of this conflict is basically over. I'm just a message board commenter, this is just a take.

iowemoretohim 9mo ago

Any source for this?