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This is not going to happen. It might have been a possibility if Israel didn’t decide to start a war and assassination campaign against Iran.

by Cyph0n 9mo ago

blobbers 9mo ago
In the sense that Trump wouldn't have gotten elected if he hadn't been prosecuted for those documents? I agree that these types of things galvanize a population. Sometimes better to just let sleeping bears sleep.
- Cyph0n 9mo ago
  In the sense that an offensive war - especially one that intentionally targets civilians and their families - rallies people around the flag and provides a boost of support to whoever is in power. The regime was organically declining in popularity. Israel’s war simply rejuvenated the regime’s supporter base without any meaningful gains on the ground. There was minimal impact to the enrichment campaign. And the fact that negotiation was used as a ruse by the Americans is definitely a motivation to pursue enrichment even further. Not to mention that regional powers are now wary of Israel’s expansionist nature and see nuclear power as the only true deterrent. Think about it: does anyone ever mess around with Pakistan or NK? This offensive directly led to the Saudi-Pakistan defense pact, with Turkey probably joining soon. I would also wager that both KSA and Turkey are starting or are considering starting their own nuclear weapons programs.
  - breppp 9mo ago
    > The regime was organically declining in popularity. Israel’s war simply rejuvenated the regime’s supporter base without any meaningful gains on the ground. That is a statement that might make sense two weeks ago, but now? Evidently the effect Israel war had was not enough to prevents riots, or arguably might have emboldened them
    - Cyph0n 9mo ago
      1. If you look closely, Western media is operating a coordinated campaign that is more interested than usual in what’s happening in Iran. 2. The scale of the protests is very likely overblown. 3. Iran’s purging of Mossad assets since the 12 day war has not yet wrapped up. The CIA is rumored to also have assets participating in these riots.
      - breppp 9mo ago
        1. Far less interested than in Gaza, for example 2. Hard to tell yet, there are videos that at least claim to show hundreds of dead which indicate both mass shooting and mass demonstrations 3. The issue is that like in USSR, any political prisoner given enough torture admits spying. So you can't really tell which are and which aren't. I wouldn't put much trust on Iranian media on that matter, especially when they only point at external enemies when there have been repeating demonstrations for years and life has only turned progressively worse for the Iranian people
        Cyph0n 9mo ago
        1. Give me a call when the repression of local protests escalates into a 2 year long Western backed campaign of ethnic cleansing and genocide against a blockaded population. 2. Agree that it’s hard to tell for certain. 3. The truth is somewhere in between. My reading is that Mossad is definitely operating on the ground in some capacity.
        breppp 9mo ago
        1. Well, we are digressing to the Gaza conflict, but calling it a genocide is probably just a form of turning up the volume on social media to generate some engagement. It is hardly similar to real mass murders whose goal was destruction of entire nations, that it requires people using the word to ignore the fact of reality that there was no real attempt at destroying the Palestinian people in Gaza. The argument then consequently turns to some legal reading that reduces the crime of genocide to "death of any amount of civilians", to the point it only serves to reduce the crime of real acts of genocide 3. Yes, it showed impressive operational capacity on the ground during the war. However, trying to attribute the protests solely to Israeli intelligence both gives too much credit to Israel, and uses the same mechanism in point 1 that erases the more uncomfortable parts of reality to keep a predefined political idea coherent. To highly paraphrase, in order to create a myth you shouldn't be concerned with what you remember but with what you forget
  - flyinglizard 9mo ago
    Israel has had nukes since the 1960’s, and has been wiping the floor with its adversaries since before even that. What changed now that would push Saudi Arabia and Turkey to get nukes? Nothing really. On the contrary: it is Turkey that’s projecting power in Syria, Libya and Somalia, and likewise Saudi Arabia projecting power in Yemen. Israel’s war on Iran was an important piece in the way to the collapse of the regime. It exposed how incompetent the regime truly is in protecting Iran, and how the Iranian “ring of fire” project (masterminded by Qassem Suleimani) to encircle Israel with proxies, at a cost of tens of billions of dollars, was taken apart by Israel in the course of a year. All of this investment, in direct funding as well as sanctions over the past 40 years came to naught when Israel struck back. Mullahs were exposed as weak, irrelevant, only able to oppress their own. Furthermore, Israel essentially decapitated the Iranian state apparatus in those 12 days. Everyone who mattered in the government and IRGC was killed. It just completely pulled the rug from under this regime. I’m almost confident this is over. And with it there’s going to be a huge shift in Middle East politics. Likely more countries will align with Israel, but the removal of the primary Shia power might push the Sunnis to negatively fixate on Israel.
    - Cyph0n 9mo ago
      Disagree with almost everything you said; too lazy to have an extended back and forth. Let’s follow up in a few months and see who was right.
      - zappb 9mo ago
        [flagged]
        Cyph0n 9mo ago
        [flagged]
        tomhow 9mo ago
        Please don't post insinuations about astroturfing, shilling, brigading, foreign agents, and the like. It degrades discussion and is usually mistaken. If you're worried about abuse, email hn@ycombinator.com and we'll look at the data. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

This is not going to happen. It might have been a possibility if Israel didn’t decide to start a war and assassination campaign against Iran.

by Cyph0n 9mo ago

This is not going to happen. It might have been a possibility if Israel didn’t decide to start a war and assassination campaign against Iran.

blobbers 9mo ago

In the sense that Trump wouldn't have gotten elected if he hadn't been prosecuted for those documents? I agree that these types of things galvanize a population. Sometimes better to just let sleeping bears sleep.

Cyph0n 9mo ago
In the sense that an offensive war - especially one that intentionally targets civilians and their families - rallies people around the flag and provides a boost of support to whoever is in power. The regime was organically declining in popularity. Israel’s war simply rejuvenated the regime’s supporter base without any meaningful gains on the ground. There was minimal impact to the enrichment campaign. And the fact that negotiation was used as a ruse by the Americans is definitely a motivation to pursue enrichment even further. Not to mention that regional powers are now wary of Israel’s expansionist nature and see nuclear power as the only true deterrent. Think about it: does anyone ever mess around with Pakistan or NK? This offensive directly led to the Saudi-Pakistan defense pact, with Turkey probably joining soon. I would also wager that both KSA and Turkey are starting or are considering starting their own nuclear weapons programs.
- breppp 9mo ago
  > The regime was organically declining in popularity. Israel’s war simply rejuvenated the regime’s supporter base without any meaningful gains on the ground. That is a statement that might make sense two weeks ago, but now? Evidently the effect Israel war had was not enough to prevents riots, or arguably might have emboldened them
  - Cyph0n 9mo ago
    1. If you look closely, Western media is operating a coordinated campaign that is more interested than usual in what’s happening in Iran. 2. The scale of the protests is very likely overblown. 3. Iran’s purging of Mossad assets since the 12 day war has not yet wrapped up. The CIA is rumored to also have assets participating in these riots.
    - breppp 9mo ago
      1. Far less interested than in Gaza, for example 2. Hard to tell yet, there are videos that at least claim to show hundreds of dead which indicate both mass shooting and mass demonstrations 3. The issue is that like in USSR, any political prisoner given enough torture admits spying. So you can't really tell which are and which aren't. I wouldn't put much trust on Iranian media on that matter, especially when they only point at external enemies when there have been repeating demonstrations for years and life has only turned progressively worse for the Iranian people
      - Cyph0n 9mo ago
        1. Give me a call when the repression of local protests escalates into a 2 year long Western backed campaign of ethnic cleansing and genocide against a blockaded population. 2. Agree that it’s hard to tell for certain. 3. The truth is somewhere in between. My reading is that Mossad is definitely operating on the ground in some capacity.
        breppp 9mo ago
        1. Well, we are digressing to the Gaza conflict, but calling it a genocide is probably just a form of turning up the volume on social media to generate some engagement. It is hardly similar to real mass murders whose goal was destruction of entire nations, that it requires people using the word to ignore the fact of reality that there was no real attempt at destroying the Palestinian people in Gaza. The argument then consequently turns to some legal reading that reduces the crime of genocide to "death of any amount of civilians", to the point it only serves to reduce the crime of real acts of genocide 3. Yes, it showed impressive operational capacity on the ground during the war. However, trying to attribute the protests solely to Israeli intelligence both gives too much credit to Israel, and uses the same mechanism in point 1 that erases the more uncomfortable parts of reality to keep a predefined political idea coherent. To highly paraphrase, in order to create a myth you shouldn't be concerned with what you remember but with what you forget
- flyinglizard 9mo ago
  Israel has had nukes since the 1960’s, and has been wiping the floor with its adversaries since before even that. What changed now that would push Saudi Arabia and Turkey to get nukes? Nothing really. On the contrary: it is Turkey that’s projecting power in Syria, Libya and Somalia, and likewise Saudi Arabia projecting power in Yemen. Israel’s war on Iran was an important piece in the way to the collapse of the regime. It exposed how incompetent the regime truly is in protecting Iran, and how the Iranian “ring of fire” project (masterminded by Qassem Suleimani) to encircle Israel with proxies, at a cost of tens of billions of dollars, was taken apart by Israel in the course of a year. All of this investment, in direct funding as well as sanctions over the past 40 years came to naught when Israel struck back. Mullahs were exposed as weak, irrelevant, only able to oppress their own. Furthermore, Israel essentially decapitated the Iranian state apparatus in those 12 days. Everyone who mattered in the government and IRGC was killed. It just completely pulled the rug from under this regime. I’m almost confident this is over. And with it there’s going to be a huge shift in Middle East politics. Likely more countries will align with Israel, but the removal of the primary Shia power might push the Sunnis to negatively fixate on Israel.
  - Cyph0n 9mo ago
    Disagree with almost everything you said; too lazy to have an extended back and forth. Let’s follow up in a few months and see who was right.
    - zappb 9mo ago
      [flagged]
      - Cyph0n 9mo ago
        [flagged]
      - tomhow 9mo ago
        Please don't post insinuations about astroturfing, shilling, brigading, foreign agents, and the like. It degrades discussion and is usually mistaken. If you're worried about abuse, email hn@ycombinator.com and we'll look at the data. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html