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You are missing the bigger picture. The stock market (which determines overall hiring) is propped up by large cap Tech, which is currently riding on AI, which

You are missing the bigger picture. The stock market (which determines overall hiring) is propped up by large cap Tech, which is currently riding on AI, which is currently riding on TSMC. US politically is going down the drain. Its a fuse that can only be extinguished by Trumps health issues. China knows this, and is already doing preparations to invade Taiwan should US significantly weaken. Every other metric that you are see is secondary to this. Big tech hired like crazy during pandemic to grow for cheap cost, and then fired a whole bunch of people later. Companies dgaf about standards, they can essentially brute force stuff with enough headcount and higher salaries. And now, everyone is watching and waiting to see what will happen.

alephnerd 9mo ago
As I mentioned, I am one of those people who makes asset management decisions. Political instability is annoying, but most funds are well diversified beyond mega-cap tech and our LPs don't have anywhere else to park capital. There is some opportunistic geopolitical hedging, but it isn't enough to tip the scales. For example, in my specific segment of the industry (cybersecurity/DefenseTech), we continued to operate as normal in Israel despite having missiles rain down from across the Middle East, a couple attempted suicide bombings near our TLV office, and employees of our portfolio companies and in some cases our founders being deployed. > Companies dgaf about standards, they can essentially brute force stuff with enough headcount and higher salaries We did back when I was in BigTech before I entered PE/VC a couple years ago, and it still matters at the companies that I'm a board member or advisor for. > And now, everyone is watching and waiting to see what will happen Partially. A lot of diversification was already done. > US politically is going down the drain. Its a fuse that can only be extinguished by Trumps health issues. China knows this, and is already doing preparations to invade Taiwan should US significantly weaken In that hypothetical, where else do we go? In such a world, the EU+UK is likely to see a military confrontation with Russia in the 2028-30 timeframe, China is out of the picture, Japan/SK/Aus would be dragged into conflict, India is likely to see a military confrontation with Pakistan or China by 2035, and the Gulf would re-ignite.
- ActorNightly 9mo ago
  I hope you realize that your entire premise is essentially assuming the fact that people are just going to continue showing up to work no matter what happens. This isn't the case. Economy is effectively the desire of people to show up to work and make money so then can spend it on things made by other people through work. There are events that can happen that are Black Swan events - i.e the unknown, unknowns from an economic perspective, that essentially can fuck up the economy big time. Say Trump institutes martial law after declaring himself forever president. You are going to see significant economic downturn. What happens in a sinking market? Companies move money. Companies will surive. People won't. Its a tale as old as time. > we continued to operate as normal in Israel despite having missiles rain down from across the Middle East Thats because an attack by a militant group is much, much different than a economic grind into decline. Its akin to a natural disaster - it doesn't erase economic demand. >In that hypothetical, where else do we go? Pretty much WW3. All the ingredients are there, straight down to the ideology being more important than truth. Like you said, when dominoes fall, countries that want to make moves will make moves.
smeeagain2 9mo ago
[flagged]

alephnerd 9mo ago

As I mentioned, I am one of those people who makes asset management decisions. Political instability is annoying, but most funds are well diversified beyond mega-cap tech and our LPs don't have anywhere else to park capital. There is some opportunistic geopolitical hedging, but it isn't enough to tip the scales. For example, in my specific segment of the industry (cybersecurity/DefenseTech), we continued to operate as normal in Israel despite having missiles rain down from across the Middle East, a couple attempted suicide bombings near our TLV office, and employees of our portfolio companies and in some cases our founders being deployed. > Companies dgaf about standards, they can essentially brute force stuff with enough headcount and higher salaries We did back when I was in BigTech before I entered PE/VC a couple years ago, and it still matters at the companies that I'm a board member or advisor for. > And now, everyone is watching and waiting to see what will happen Partially. A lot of diversification was already done. > US politically is going down the drain. Its a fuse that can only be extinguished by Trumps health issues. China knows this, and is already doing preparations to invade Taiwan should US significantly weaken In that hypothetical, where else do we go? In such a world, the EU+UK is likely to see a military confrontation with Russia in the 2028-30 timeframe, China is out of the picture, Japan/SK/Aus would be dragged into conflict, India is likely to see a military confrontation with Pakistan or China by 2035, and the Gulf would re-ignite.

ActorNightly 9mo ago
I hope you realize that your entire premise is essentially assuming the fact that people are just going to continue showing up to work no matter what happens. This isn't the case. Economy is effectively the desire of people to show up to work and make money so then can spend it on things made by other people through work. There are events that can happen that are Black Swan events - i.e the unknown, unknowns from an economic perspective, that essentially can fuck up the economy big time. Say Trump institutes martial law after declaring himself forever president. You are going to see significant economic downturn. What happens in a sinking market? Companies move money. Companies will surive. People won't. Its a tale as old as time. > we continued to operate as normal in Israel despite having missiles rain down from across the Middle East Thats because an attack by a militant group is much, much different than a economic grind into decline. Its akin to a natural disaster - it doesn't erase economic demand. >In that hypothetical, where else do we go? Pretty much WW3. All the ingredients are there, straight down to the ideology being more important than truth. Like you said, when dominoes fall, countries that want to make moves will make moves.

smeeagain2 9mo ago

[flagged]