4 ms·

It's probably going to collapse anyway. He's been hitting all of the pillars of the economy with a sledge hammer.

jacquesm 9mo ago
Yes, but for now the USD has more or less survived. If Trump forcibly removes the FED chair on a pretext things could go downhill very fast. You can probably kiss the USD as a reserve currency goodbye overnight and China is going to have a real problem given the amount of debt they hold. This could easily knock the last pillar that holds it all up away.
- hvb2 9mo ago
  > Yes, but for now the USD has more or less survived. Excuse me? It lost over 10% in a year against the euro and almost 10% against the British pound. https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=EUR https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=EUR
altmanaltman 9mo ago
I wonder how the stock market would look if AI wasn't such a big driving factor. Or how it would look if there was no sledge hammer. Insane times.
- f33d5173 9mo ago
  My working theory is that the ai bubble is caused by trump. People are too uncertain to want to invest in most industries, but they have to put their money somewhere, so they put it in ai stocks. Since the supreme court is likely to rule trump's tariffs illegal in a week or so, this may lead to a stock market crash. As people reallocate their portfolios, they will sell their ai stocks, which will pop the bubble and cause a crash. Something to watch out for.
  - altmanaltman 9mo ago
    Valid theory, and if you look at the prices of assets like gold, the reallocation is already happening. But I feel a near-term crash in AI stocks is just not coming unless we are headed towards catastrophic economic conditions. Lots of market forces are involved in AI now and even people selling stocks (or a major correction) will not pop the AI bubble since the major players have invested way too much cash to just let it go away at this point. (IMO)
  - JumpinJack_Cash 9mo ago
    I don't think so. Remember the first time you wanted to buy a stock. You used a product or a service that you liked immensely, realized it had a stock and wanted to be involved. 1 billion people are using AI, not dramatically changing their lives yet of course but for sure they go 'wow incredible I want to be part of this' when they make a video with Sora or generate a pamphlet without having to work
    - rsynnott 9mo ago
      So you’re hoping for the ai bubble to be saved by naive retail investors? I mean, that can’t last forever.
      - mikestew 9mo ago
        Nor would it have much impact. Retail investors are a tiny part of the market. Sure, we all have 401Ks and IRAs, but are we collectively trading GOOG and MSFT? No. The people managing funds that go into those 401Ks are trading those stocks, but individually we aren't (generally speaking, of course).
    - hvb2 9mo ago
      > 1 billion people are using AI, not dramatically changing their lives yet of course but for sure they go 'wow incredible I want to be part of this' Subtract the part that doesn't know they're using AI or when they do know have mixed experiences. Then subtract the vast vast majority of people who don't have the money to invest.
deleted 9mo ago
[deleted]

Yes, but for now the USD has more or less survived. If Trump forcibly removes the FED chair on a pretext things could go downhill very fast. You can probably kiss the USD as a reserve currency goodbye overnight and China is going to have a real problem given the amount of debt they hold. This could easily knock the last pillar that holds it all up away.

hvb2 9mo ago
> Yes, but for now the USD has more or less survived. Excuse me? It lost over 10% in a year against the euro and almost 10% against the British pound. https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=EUR https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=EUR

altmanaltman 9mo ago

I wonder how the stock market would look if AI wasn't such a big driving factor. Or how it would look if there was no sledge hammer. Insane times.

f33d5173 9mo ago
My working theory is that the ai bubble is caused by trump. People are too uncertain to want to invest in most industries, but they have to put their money somewhere, so they put it in ai stocks. Since the supreme court is likely to rule trump's tariffs illegal in a week or so, this may lead to a stock market crash. As people reallocate their portfolios, they will sell their ai stocks, which will pop the bubble and cause a crash. Something to watch out for.
- altmanaltman 9mo ago
  Valid theory, and if you look at the prices of assets like gold, the reallocation is already happening. But I feel a near-term crash in AI stocks is just not coming unless we are headed towards catastrophic economic conditions. Lots of market forces are involved in AI now and even people selling stocks (or a major correction) will not pop the AI bubble since the major players have invested way too much cash to just let it go away at this point. (IMO)
- JumpinJack_Cash 9mo ago
  I don't think so. Remember the first time you wanted to buy a stock. You used a product or a service that you liked immensely, realized it had a stock and wanted to be involved. 1 billion people are using AI, not dramatically changing their lives yet of course but for sure they go 'wow incredible I want to be part of this' when they make a video with Sora or generate a pamphlet without having to work
  - rsynnott 9mo ago
    So you’re hoping for the ai bubble to be saved by naive retail investors? I mean, that can’t last forever.
    - mikestew 9mo ago
      Nor would it have much impact. Retail investors are a tiny part of the market. Sure, we all have 401Ks and IRAs, but are we collectively trading GOOG and MSFT? No. The people managing funds that go into those 401Ks are trading those stocks, but individually we aren't (generally speaking, of course).
  - hvb2 9mo ago
    > 1 billion people are using AI, not dramatically changing their lives yet of course but for sure they go 'wow incredible I want to be part of this' Subtract the part that doesn't know they're using AI or when they do know have mixed experiences. Then subtract the vast vast majority of people who don't have the money to invest.

deleted 9mo ago

[deleted]