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Based on yearly average capacity factor? Since that incident storage has been scaling massively. How does a nuclear plant compete with zero marginal cost renew

Based on yearly average capacity factor? Since that incident storage has been scaling massively. How does a nuclear plant compete with zero marginal cost renewables? https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Quiet-Unraveling-of-the-Power-Grid-Monopoly.html https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Quiet-Unravel...

realusername 9mo ago
Based on if it would run at full capacity like a plant would yes. And no, storage hasn't scale at all yet, it would need a 100x increase before being useful for such events. The proof is in the pudding anyways, if that works so well, why nobody does it?
- lostlogin 9mo ago
  Nobody does what? Solar installs are way way up.
  - realusername 9mo ago
    Nobody does a storage based solar grid at a country scale.
    - ViewTrick1002 9mo ago
      Solar has only really been viable since ~2020. Storage has only really been viable since mid 2024. With timelines in the energy business being decades there's what currently exists and where we are headed are two completely different questions. Looking at what gets built Q1 through Q3 in 2025 solar and wind met all electricity grid demand growth. https://ember-energy.org/latest-updates/solar-and-wind-growth-meets-all-new-electricity-demand-in-the-first-three-quarters-of-2025/ https://ember-energy.org/latest-updates/solar-and-wind-growt... Storage is also scaling massively. https://www.ess-news.com/2025/11/12/german-network-operators-approve-grid-connection-of-46-gwh-of-storage-at-medium-voltage-level/ https://www.ess-news.com/2025/11/12/german-network-operators... If we just keep doing like we are then within 10-15 years renewables will be dominating every single grid globally.
      - realusername 9mo ago
        I had exact the same discussion here 5 and 10 years ago (it will be ready next year!), I'm willing to bet that storage isn't going to cut it in the next 10 years. There's at least two of orders of magnitude missing with the current storage gen and unless a new tech revolution happens, that's not going to work. The supposedly massive storage which is built in your link doesn't even cover half a day of winter load. Anything below 200GWh is a proof of concept at best.
        ViewTrick1002 9mo ago
        I remember those discussions. 5-10 years ago people were summing all electric cars, including ICE cars starting batteries, to prove the scale was irrelevant. Now the goalpost is shifted to "not even a single winter day without any other input of electricity". Which is a high 90s percent decarbonized grid. Not fully decarbonized, but almost. In California storage is now timeshifting 50 GWh daily. An expansion that has come in the last few years. Battery prices are down to $50/kWh when not using extremely expensive western batteries. Which means in the near future 50-200 kWh systems attached to houses. Excluding the BEV providing demand response to also help shape grid demand. I think you should update your priors to 2026 data. We're in the point of the S-curve where batteries goes from nowhere to everywhere in the blink of an eye. Just like solar was almost insignificant in 2020 adding a mere 140 GW over the year while in the first 6 months of 2025 we added 380 GW of solar.
        boringg 9mo ago
        Storage is time-shifting a lot of energy but it can't do long periods of time in large volumes - still a significant problem. What you are referring to is small incremental changes (like peak shaving or demand response programs in single hour increments). And it isn't only a co-ordination problem (which many companies are solving) its a physical/physics problem. I am all for energy storage and solar - I've worked extensively in both. Their continued growth is a huge asset for humanity. That said they aren't a panacea and doesn't cover the full spectrum of energy needs even with continued cost reductions - they have constraints due to the physical reality of the world and how power is produced.
Moldoteck 9mo ago
by providing firm power.
- ViewTrick1002 9mo ago
  Which storage can solve. The problem is that "base load" as we know it is dead. It was only ever an economic construct, never a physical one. Distributed renewables are unraveling the grid monopoly, meaning you can't just foist enormous nuclear subsidies on the tax payers anymore. They will vote with their wallets. Some reads for you: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Quiet-Unraveling-of-the-Power-Grid-Monopoly.html https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Quiet-Unravel... https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Renewable-Energy/What-the-Market-Gets-Wrong-about-Renewables.html https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Renewable-Energy/Wha...
  - Moldoteck 9mo ago
    Storage can not solve firming in most of the world, maybe South Aus being exception, maybe. It can be solved by gas peakers or gas peakers combined with bess if you go fossils way, or hydro if you have it or nuclear. In Germany it'll be gas+bess but mostly gas, according to their Fraunhofer ISE org. In UK it'll be mostly gas too. In DK it'll be imports from hydro rich nordics. It's interesting you mentioned nuclear subsidies when Germany poured on it's EEG renewables scheme alone more than double the cost of entire french nuclear fleet, both adjusted in today money
    - ViewTrick1002 9mo ago
      Who cares if there's a tiny portion of gas turbines left (optimized for low CAPEX) when we've solved high 90s% of the problem? Its like complaining about the 3% fossil gas usage in France today when we still need to decarbonize shipping, agriculture, aviation, construction etc. It is trivial to run gas turbines on carbon neutral fuel when the time comes if we determine they are still needed. > It's interesting you mentioned nuclear subsidies when Germany poured on it's EEG renewables scheme alone more than double the cost of entire french nuclear fleet, both adjusted in today money This is a backwards looking metric, we need to look forward based on the costs today. Are we paying 2011 solar prices or 2026 solar prices when building renewables in 2026? We pay 2026 prices. Look at the proposed French EPR2 program. 11 cents/kWh 40 year CFD and interest free loans with the first reactor coming online in 2038. Just an absolutely insanely large handout from tax money to force new built nuclear power into existence. While the competition in renewables and storage are built on massive scale without subsides.

realusername 9mo ago

Based on if it would run at full capacity like a plant would yes. And no, storage hasn't scale at all yet, it would need a 100x increase before being useful for such events. The proof is in the pudding anyways, if that works so well, why nobody does it?

lostlogin 9mo ago
Nobody does what? Solar installs are way way up.
- realusername 9mo ago
  Nobody does a storage based solar grid at a country scale.
  - ViewTrick1002 9mo ago
    Solar has only really been viable since ~2020. Storage has only really been viable since mid 2024. With timelines in the energy business being decades there's what currently exists and where we are headed are two completely different questions. Looking at what gets built Q1 through Q3 in 2025 solar and wind met all electricity grid demand growth. https://ember-energy.org/latest-updates/solar-and-wind-growth-meets-all-new-electricity-demand-in-the-first-three-quarters-of-2025/ https://ember-energy.org/latest-updates/solar-and-wind-growt... Storage is also scaling massively. https://www.ess-news.com/2025/11/12/german-network-operators-approve-grid-connection-of-46-gwh-of-storage-at-medium-voltage-level/ https://www.ess-news.com/2025/11/12/german-network-operators... If we just keep doing like we are then within 10-15 years renewables will be dominating every single grid globally.
    - realusername 9mo ago
      I had exact the same discussion here 5 and 10 years ago (it will be ready next year!), I'm willing to bet that storage isn't going to cut it in the next 10 years. There's at least two of orders of magnitude missing with the current storage gen and unless a new tech revolution happens, that's not going to work. The supposedly massive storage which is built in your link doesn't even cover half a day of winter load. Anything below 200GWh is a proof of concept at best.
      - ViewTrick1002 9mo ago
        I remember those discussions. 5-10 years ago people were summing all electric cars, including ICE cars starting batteries, to prove the scale was irrelevant. Now the goalpost is shifted to "not even a single winter day without any other input of electricity". Which is a high 90s percent decarbonized grid. Not fully decarbonized, but almost. In California storage is now timeshifting 50 GWh daily. An expansion that has come in the last few years. Battery prices are down to $50/kWh when not using extremely expensive western batteries. Which means in the near future 50-200 kWh systems attached to houses. Excluding the BEV providing demand response to also help shape grid demand. I think you should update your priors to 2026 data. We're in the point of the S-curve where batteries goes from nowhere to everywhere in the blink of an eye. Just like solar was almost insignificant in 2020 adding a mere 140 GW over the year while in the first 6 months of 2025 we added 380 GW of solar.
        boringg 9mo ago
        Storage is time-shifting a lot of energy but it can't do long periods of time in large volumes - still a significant problem. What you are referring to is small incremental changes (like peak shaving or demand response programs in single hour increments). And it isn't only a co-ordination problem (which many companies are solving) its a physical/physics problem. I am all for energy storage and solar - I've worked extensively in both. Their continued growth is a huge asset for humanity. That said they aren't a panacea and doesn't cover the full spectrum of energy needs even with continued cost reductions - they have constraints due to the physical reality of the world and how power is produced.

Moldoteck 9mo ago

by providing firm power.

ViewTrick1002 9mo ago
Which storage can solve. The problem is that "base load" as we know it is dead. It was only ever an economic construct, never a physical one. Distributed renewables are unraveling the grid monopoly, meaning you can't just foist enormous nuclear subsidies on the tax payers anymore. They will vote with their wallets. Some reads for you: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Quiet-Unraveling-of-the-Power-Grid-Monopoly.html https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Quiet-Unravel... https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Renewable-Energy/What-the-Market-Gets-Wrong-about-Renewables.html https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Renewable-Energy/Wha...
- Moldoteck 9mo ago
  Storage can not solve firming in most of the world, maybe South Aus being exception, maybe. It can be solved by gas peakers or gas peakers combined with bess if you go fossils way, or hydro if you have it or nuclear. In Germany it'll be gas+bess but mostly gas, according to their Fraunhofer ISE org. In UK it'll be mostly gas too. In DK it'll be imports from hydro rich nordics. It's interesting you mentioned nuclear subsidies when Germany poured on it's EEG renewables scheme alone more than double the cost of entire french nuclear fleet, both adjusted in today money
  - ViewTrick1002 9mo ago
    Who cares if there's a tiny portion of gas turbines left (optimized for low CAPEX) when we've solved high 90s% of the problem? Its like complaining about the 3% fossil gas usage in France today when we still need to decarbonize shipping, agriculture, aviation, construction etc. It is trivial to run gas turbines on carbon neutral fuel when the time comes if we determine they are still needed. > It's interesting you mentioned nuclear subsidies when Germany poured on it's EEG renewables scheme alone more than double the cost of entire french nuclear fleet, both adjusted in today money This is a backwards looking metric, we need to look forward based on the costs today. Are we paying 2011 solar prices or 2026 solar prices when building renewables in 2026? We pay 2026 prices. Look at the proposed French EPR2 program. 11 cents/kWh 40 year CFD and interest free loans with the first reactor coming online in 2038. Just an absolutely insanely large handout from tax money to force new built nuclear power into existence. While the competition in renewables and storage are built on massive scale without subsides.