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Renewables crash the money making potential of nuclear power. Why should someone buy ~18-24 cents/kWh new built nuclear power excluding backup, transmission cos

Renewables crash the money making potential of nuclear power. Why should someone buy ~18-24 cents/kWh new built nuclear power excluding backup, transmission costs, taxes, final waste deposit etc. when cheap renewables deliver? https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Renewable-Energy/What-the-Market-Gets-Wrong-about-Renewables.html https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Renewable-Energy/Wha... China is barely building nuclear power, in terms of their grid size. It peaked at 4.6% in 2021, now down to 4.3%. Compared to their renewable buildout the nuclear scheme is a token gesture to keep a nuclear industry alive if it would somehow end up delivering cheap electricity.

boringg 9mo ago
Again they aren't the same product. Everyone always thinks power is only about $/kwh especially in hackernews. That is a strong proponent of the product but most definitely not all of it. Solar just does not work for large scale industrial uses cases (99.99% uptime). Even with massive energy storage to try and cover the edges. Its a great combo but not comparable.
- ViewTrick1002 9mo ago
  How does your "large scale industrial use case" deal with 50% of the French nuclear fleet being offline? https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/15/business/nuclear-power-france.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/15/business/nuclear-power-fr... Or 50% of the Swedish fleet two times this year being offline?
  - realusername 9mo ago
    At the same time it happened, the french solar was 92% offline and the french wind generation was 81% offline. Maybe we should get the opposite conclusion from this incident.
    - ViewTrick1002 9mo ago
      Based on yearly average capacity factor? Since that incident storage has been scaling massively. How does a nuclear plant compete with zero marginal cost renewables? https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Quiet-Unraveling-of-the-Power-Grid-Monopoly.html https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Quiet-Unravel...
      - realusername 9mo ago
        Based on if it would run at full capacity like a plant would yes. And no, storage hasn't scale at all yet, it would need a 100x increase before being useful for such events. The proof is in the pudding anyways, if that works so well, why nobody does it?
        lostlogin 9mo ago
        Nobody does what? Solar installs are way way up.
        realusername 9mo ago
        Nobody does a storage based solar grid at a country scale.
        ViewTrick1002 9mo ago
        Solar has only really been viable since ~2020. Storage has only really been viable since mid 2024. With timelines in the energy business being decades there's what currently exists and where we are headed are two completely different questions. Looking at what gets built Q1 through Q3 in 2025 solar and wind met all electricity grid demand growth. https://ember-energy.org/latest-updates/solar-and-wind-growth-meets-all-new-electricity-demand-in-the-first-three-quarters-of-2025/ https://ember-energy.org/latest-updates/solar-and-wind-growt... Storage is also scaling massively. https://www.ess-news.com/2025/11/12/german-network-operators-approve-grid-connection-of-46-gwh-of-storage-at-medium-voltage-level/ https://www.ess-news.com/2025/11/12/german-network-operators... If we just keep doing like we are then within 10-15 years renewables will be dominating every single grid globally.
Moldoteck 9mo ago
nuclear provides for about 4-5ct/kwh if built cheap, everything included, looking at swiss data. Chinese units are built for 2.5bn/unit, so probably even cheaper than that. But yes, china is far from what france or sweden did with nuclear per capita
- ViewTrick1002 9mo ago
  The problem is that western new built nuclear power costs 18-24 cents/kWh when running at 100% 24/7 without backup, transmission fees, taxes etc. based on Vogtle, HPC, FV3, Polish Ap1000s, EPR2s etc. We can create imaginary renewable scenarios as well. For example: "Assuming renewables and storage costs get an 80% price reduction (like you just gave nuclear power) then YY will happen".
  - Moldoteck 9mo ago
    Fla3 min profitability limit is 9ct and expected limit is about 12-14ct. And mind you 9ct scenario assumes 90%cf, while most US plants are 92-98%cf. And that's for a totally f-up project... EPR2 isn't built yet so we don't know how it'll go per kwh, if EDF doesn't delay it for 20y it'll be in 6-10ct range, similar to Barakah built by Korea Most of the cost in ren nowadays is transmission cost and firming cost, both don't have a big margin to shave, unlike nuclear
    - ViewTrick1002 9mo ago
      > Fla3 min profitability limit is 9ct and expected limit is about 12-14ct. When assuming extremely subsidised interest rates. You can do the same for the competition to get an apples to apples comparison, but I know you don't want to do that. > And that's for a totally f-up project... EPR2 isn't built yet so we don't know how it'll go per kwh, if EDF doesn't delay it for 20y it'll be in 6-10ct range, similar to Barakah built by Korea The EPR2 subsidy proposal, yet to be accepted by the european commission, is 11 cents/kWh and interest free loans. Sum freely. Stop making stuff up. > Most of the cost in ren nowadays is transmission cost and firming cost, both don't have a big margin to shave, unlike nuclear How will you force anyone to buy that horrifyingly expensive new built nuclear electricity? Here's an article for you: The Quiet Unraveling of the Power Grid Monopoly https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Quiet-Unraveling-of-the-Power-Grid-Monopoly.html https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Quiet-Unravel...

boringg 9mo ago

Again they aren't the same product. Everyone always thinks power is only about $/kwh especially in hackernews. That is a strong proponent of the product but most definitely not all of it. Solar just does not work for large scale industrial uses cases (99.99% uptime). Even with massive energy storage to try and cover the edges. Its a great combo but not comparable.

ViewTrick1002 9mo ago
How does your "large scale industrial use case" deal with 50% of the French nuclear fleet being offline? https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/15/business/nuclear-power-france.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/15/business/nuclear-power-fr... Or 50% of the Swedish fleet two times this year being offline?
- realusername 9mo ago
  At the same time it happened, the french solar was 92% offline and the french wind generation was 81% offline. Maybe we should get the opposite conclusion from this incident.
  - ViewTrick1002 9mo ago
    Based on yearly average capacity factor? Since that incident storage has been scaling massively. How does a nuclear plant compete with zero marginal cost renewables? https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Quiet-Unraveling-of-the-Power-Grid-Monopoly.html https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Quiet-Unravel...
    - realusername 9mo ago
      Based on if it would run at full capacity like a plant would yes. And no, storage hasn't scale at all yet, it would need a 100x increase before being useful for such events. The proof is in the pudding anyways, if that works so well, why nobody does it?
      - lostlogin 9mo ago
        Nobody does what? Solar installs are way way up.
        realusername 9mo ago
        Nobody does a storage based solar grid at a country scale.
        ViewTrick1002 9mo ago
        Solar has only really been viable since ~2020. Storage has only really been viable since mid 2024. With timelines in the energy business being decades there's what currently exists and where we are headed are two completely different questions. Looking at what gets built Q1 through Q3 in 2025 solar and wind met all electricity grid demand growth. https://ember-energy.org/latest-updates/solar-and-wind-growth-meets-all-new-electricity-demand-in-the-first-three-quarters-of-2025/ https://ember-energy.org/latest-updates/solar-and-wind-growt... Storage is also scaling massively. https://www.ess-news.com/2025/11/12/german-network-operators-approve-grid-connection-of-46-gwh-of-storage-at-medium-voltage-level/ https://www.ess-news.com/2025/11/12/german-network-operators... If we just keep doing like we are then within 10-15 years renewables will be dominating every single grid globally.

Moldoteck 9mo ago

nuclear provides for about 4-5ct/kwh if built cheap, everything included, looking at swiss data. Chinese units are built for 2.5bn/unit, so probably even cheaper than that. But yes, china is far from what france or sweden did with nuclear per capita

ViewTrick1002 9mo ago
The problem is that western new built nuclear power costs 18-24 cents/kWh when running at 100% 24/7 without backup, transmission fees, taxes etc. based on Vogtle, HPC, FV3, Polish Ap1000s, EPR2s etc. We can create imaginary renewable scenarios as well. For example: "Assuming renewables and storage costs get an 80% price reduction (like you just gave nuclear power) then YY will happen".
- Moldoteck 9mo ago
  Fla3 min profitability limit is 9ct and expected limit is about 12-14ct. And mind you 9ct scenario assumes 90%cf, while most US plants are 92-98%cf. And that's for a totally f-up project... EPR2 isn't built yet so we don't know how it'll go per kwh, if EDF doesn't delay it for 20y it'll be in 6-10ct range, similar to Barakah built by Korea Most of the cost in ren nowadays is transmission cost and firming cost, both don't have a big margin to shave, unlike nuclear
  - ViewTrick1002 9mo ago
    > Fla3 min profitability limit is 9ct and expected limit is about 12-14ct. When assuming extremely subsidised interest rates. You can do the same for the competition to get an apples to apples comparison, but I know you don't want to do that. > And that's for a totally f-up project... EPR2 isn't built yet so we don't know how it'll go per kwh, if EDF doesn't delay it for 20y it'll be in 6-10ct range, similar to Barakah built by Korea The EPR2 subsidy proposal, yet to be accepted by the european commission, is 11 cents/kWh and interest free loans. Sum freely. Stop making stuff up. > Most of the cost in ren nowadays is transmission cost and firming cost, both don't have a big margin to shave, unlike nuclear How will you force anyone to buy that horrifyingly expensive new built nuclear electricity? Here's an article for you: The Quiet Unraveling of the Power Grid Monopoly https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Quiet-Unraveling-of-the-Power-Grid-Monopoly.html https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Quiet-Unravel...