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okay, but again: if you say in your blog that those are "facts", then... show us the facts? You can't just hand-wavily say "a bigger percentage of programmers
by oulipo2 9mo ago
okay, but again: if you say in your blog that those are "facts", then... show us the facts?
You can't just hand-wavily say "a bigger percentage of programmers is using AI with success every day" and not give a link to a study that shows it's true
as a matter of fact, we know that a lot of companies have fired people by pretending that they are no longer needed in the age of AI... only to re-hire offshored people for much cheaper
for now, there hasn't been a documented sudden increase in velocity / robustness for code, a few anecdotical cases sure
I use it myself, and I admit it saves some time to develop some basic stuff and get a few ideas, but so far nothing revolutionary. So let's take it at face value:
- a tech which helps slightly with some tasks (basically "in-painting code" once you defined the "border constraints" sufficiently well)
- a tech which might cause massive disruption of people's livelihoods (and safety) if used incorrectly, which might FAR OUTWEIGH the small benefits and be a good enough reason for people to fight against AI
- a tech which emits CO2, increases inequalities, depends on quasi slave-work of annotators in third-world countries, etc
so you can talk all day long about not dismissing AI, but you should take it also with everything that comes with it
- antirez 9mo ago1. If you can't convince yourself, after downloading Claude Code or Codex and playing with them for 1 week, that programming is completely revolutionized, there is nothing I can do: you have it at your fingertips and you search for facts I should communicate for you. 2. The US alone air conditioning usage is around 4 times the energy / CO2 usage of all the world data centers (not just AI) combined together. AI is 10% of the data centers usage, so just AC is 40 times that.
- oulipo2 9mo ago1. "if you can't convince yourself by playing anecdotically" is NOT "facts" 2. it's not because the US is incredibly bad at energy spending in AC that it somehow justifies the fact that we would add another, mostly unnecessary, polluting source, even if it's slightly lower. ACs have existed for decades. AI has been exploding for a few years, so we can definitely see it go way, way past the AC usage also the idea is of "accelerationnism". Why do we need all this tech? What good does it make to have 10 more silly slop AI videos and disinformation campaigns during election? Just so that antirez can be a little bit faster at doing his code... that's not what the world is about. Our world should be about humans, connecting together (more slowly, not "faster"), about having meaningful work, and caring about planetary resources The exact opposite of what capitalistic accelerationism / AI is trying to sell us
- simonw 9mo agoIf you can solve "measure programming productivity with data" you'll have cracked one of the hardest problems in our industry. > Why do we need all this tech? Slightly odd question to be asking here on Hacker News!
- oulipo2 9mo agoSure, but I wasn't the one pretending to have "facts" on AI... > Slightly odd question to be asking here on Hacker News! It's absolutely not? The first line of question when you work in a domain SHOULD BE "why am I doing this" and "what is the impact of my work on others"
- simonw 9mo agoYeah, I think I quoted you out of context there. I'm very much in agreement about asking "what is the impact of my work on others".
- lunar_mycroft 9mo ago> If you can solve "measure programming productivity with data" you'll have cracked one of the hardest problems in our industry. That doesn't mean that we have to accept claims that LLMs drastically increase productivity without good evidence (or in the presence of evidence to the contrary). If anything, it means the opposite.
- simonw 9mo agoAt the is point the best evidence we have is a large volume of extremely experienced programmers - like antirez - saying "this stuff is amazing for coding productivity". My own personal experience supports that too. If you're determined to say "I refuse to accept appeal to authority here, I demand a solution to the measuring productivity problem first" then you're probably in for a long wait.
- llmslave3 9mo ago
- keybits 9mo agoI enjoyed about your blog post, but I was curious about the claim in point 2 above. I asked Claude and it seems the claim is false: # Fact-Checking This Climate Impact Claim Let me break down this claim with actual data: ## The Numbers *US Air Conditioning:* - US A/C uses approximately *220-240 TWh/year* (2020 EIA data) - This represents about 6% of total US electricity consumption *Global Data Centers:* - Estimated *240-340 TWh/year globally* (IEA 2022 reports) - Some estimates go to 460 TWh including cryptocurrency *AI's Share:* - AI represents roughly *10-15%* of data center energy (IEA estimates this is growing rapidly) ## Verdict: *The claim is FALSE* The math doesn't support a 4:1 ratio. US A/C and global data centers use *roughly comparable* amounts of energy—somewhere between 1:1 and 1:1.5, not 4:1. The "40 times AI" conclusion would only work if the 4x premise were true. ## Important Caveats 1. *Measurement uncertainty*: Data center energy use is notoriously difficult to measure accurately 2. *Rapid growth*: AI energy use is growing much faster than A/C 3. *Geographic variation*: This compares one country's A/C to global data centers (apples to oranges) ## Reliable Sources - US EIA (Energy Information Administration) for A/C data - IEA (International Energy Agency) for data center estimates - Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory studies The quote significantly overstates the disparity, though both are indeed major energy consumers.
- vultour 9mo agoSo you don't actually have anything to support your argument other than "trust me bro". Oh, how the mighty have fallen.
- simonw 9mo agoA useful skill in both software engineering and life is figuring out, based on prior reputation and performance, who you should trust.
- pmarin 9mo agoThat sound more like software pseudo-engineering to me.
- oulipo2 9mo agoA bit like we should trust RFK on how "vaccines don't work" thanks to his wide experience? The idea here is not to say that antirez has no knowledge about coding or software engineering, the idea was that if he says "hey we have the facts", and then when people ask "okay, show us the fact" he says: "just download claude code and play with it one hour and you have the facts" we don't trust that, that's not science
- simonw 9mo agoThat's a great example in support of my argument here, because RFK Jr clearly has no relevant experience at all - so "figuring out, based on prior reputation and performance, who you should trust" should lead you to not listen to a word he says.
- oulipo2 9mo agoWell guess what, a lot of people will "trust him" because he is a "figure of power" (he's a minister of the current administration). So that's exactly why "authority arguments" are bad... and we should rely on science and studies
- minusf 9mo ago
- sn0wleppard 9mo agoI tried Claude on a project where I'd got stuck trying to use some MacOS media APIs in a Rust app. It just went in circles between something that wouldn't compile, and a "solution" that compiled but didn't work despite the output insisting it worked. Anything it said that wasn't already in the (admittedly crap) Apple documentation was just hallucination. Not exactly what I'd describe as "revolutionary".
- simonw 9mo agoHow does widespread access to AI tools increase inequalities?
- oulipo2 9mo agoBecause as long as it is done in a capitalistic economy, it will be excluding the many from work, while driving profits to a few
- AstroBen 9mo agoIt's pretty clear that if AI delivers on its promise it'll decimate the income of all but the top 1% developers Labor is worth less, capital and equity ownership make more or the same
- simonw 9mo agoI don't think that's a forgone conclusion yet. I continue to hope that we see the opposite effect: the drop of cost in software development drives massively increased demand for both software and our services. I wrote about that here: https://simonwillison.net/2026/Jan/8/llm-predictions-for-2026/#3-years-the-coding-agents-jevons-paradox-for-software-engineering-will-resolve-one-way-or-the-other https://simonwillison.net/2026/Jan/8/llm-predictions-for-202...
- AstroBen 9mo agoI keep flip-flopping between being optimistic and pessimistic on this, but yeah we just need to wait and see
- senordevnyc 9mo agoJust dismiss what he says and move on, he's already made it clear he's not trying to convince you.