4 ms·

Why do you believe that the sky is blue? What randomized trial with proper statistical controls has shown this to be true?

• AstroBen 9mo ago
  I can see it, it's independently verifiable by others, and it's measurable
  • nfw2 9mo ago
    The same is true of AI productivity https://resources.github.com/learn/pathways/copilot/essentials/measuring-the-impact-of-github-copilot/ https://resources.github.com/learn/pathways/copilot/essentia... https://www.anthropic.com/research/how-ai-is-transforming-work-at-anthropic https://www.anthropic.com/research/how-ai-is-transforming-wo... https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/tech-and-ai/our-insights/the-economic-potential-of-generative-ai-the-next-productivity-frontier https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/tech-and-ai/our-insigh...
    • deleted 9mo ago
      [deleted]
    • davidgerard 9mo ago
      lol those are all self-reports of vibes then they put the vibes on a graph, which presumably transforms them into data
      • nfw2 9mo ago
        "Both GitHub and outside researchers have observed positive impact in controlled experiments and field studies where Copilot has conferred: 55% faster task completion using predictive text Quality improvements across 8 dimensions (e.g. readability, error-free, maintainability) 50% faster time-to-merge" how is time-to-merge a vibe?
        • Orygin 9mo ago
          The subject is productivity. Time to merge is as useful metric as Lines of Code to determine productivity. I can merge 100s of changes but if they are low quality or incur bugs, then it's not really more productive.
          • davidgerard 9mo ago
            this guy has elsewhere in this thread cited "a16z revenue benchmarks" as evidence of productivity. you know, the sector most famous for setting more money on fire faster than anyone in living memory.
    • intended 9mo ago
      > https://metr.org/blog/2025-07-10-early-2025-ai-experienced-os-dev-study/ https://metr.org/blog/2025-07-10-early-2025-ai-experienced-o... Shows that devs overestimate the impact of LLMs on their productivity. They believe they get faster when they take more time. Since Anthropic, GitHub are fair game here’s one from Code Rabbit - https://www.coderabbit.ai/blog/state-of-ai-vs-human-code-generation-report https://www.coderabbit.ai/blog/state-of-ai-vs-human-code-gen...
• llmslave2 9mo ago
  If you point a spectrometer at the sky during the day in non-cloudy conditions you will observe readings peaking in the roughly 450-495 nanometers range, which crazily enough, is the definition of the colour blue [0]! Then you can research Rayleigh scattering, of which consists of a large body of academic research not just confirming that the sky is blue, but also why. But hey, if you want to claim the sky is red because you feel like it is, go ahead. Most people won't take you seriously just like they don't take similar claims about AI seriously. [0] https://scied.ucar.edu/image/wavelength-blue-and-red-light-image https://scied.ucar.edu/image/wavelength-blue-and-red-light-i...
  • nfw2 9mo ago
    you needed a spectrometer to tell you the sky is blue?
  • lkjdsklf 9mo ago
    Ever seen a picture of the blue sky from the ISS?
• admdly 9mo ago
  I’m not sure why you’d need or want a randomised controlled trial to determine the colour of the sky. There have been empirical studies done to determine the colour and the reasoning for it - https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/23/14829/2023/acp-23-14829-2023.pdf https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/23/14829/2023/acp-23-148... is an interesting read.