5 ms·

it probably wont

nehal3m 9mo ago
OpenAI buys all the RAM driving up the price so their models can shit out poorly optimized software so I have to buy more RAM. Awesome.
- embedding-shape 9mo ago
  Sure, except this time also add on US pressuring Korean companies to not sell their old equipment to Chinese manufacturers, so the supply could actually keep up. But no no, it's all OpenAI's fault for behaving like the capitalistic swines they are. Both suck, but one has a long-lasting impact, the other is just what capitalists always done, and will continue in the future.
  - georgefrowny 9mo ago
    And then when China eventually produce not only RAM but the equipment to make it, it'll be shocked Pikachu all round.
lysace 9mo ago
Agreed - it's more likely to lead to poor user experience than anything else. Most end-user facing software/service companies will probably bet on the DRAM price peak being temporary. Software takes a lot of time to build. Codebases live for decades. There's often an impossibly large cost in starting over with a less wasteful architecture/language/etc. Think going from an Electron/Chromium app to something built using some compiled language and native OS GUI constructs that uses 10x less resources.
- Workaccount2 9mo ago
  The impossibly large cost is the difference between hardware and software returns. Hardware by nature forces redesigns whereas software it's always possible to just keep building on top of old bad designs, and so much cheaper and faster to do so. That's why hardware is 10,000x faster than 30 years ago, and even simple word processors are debatabely faster than 30 years ago. Maybe even slower.
  - immibis 9mo ago
    Hardware isn't much better actually. There isn't a good way I can show you this, but every x64 CPU contains an entire ARM CPU whose job is to initialize the x64 CPU. And of course it runs two operating systems - TrustZone and Minix.
    - Krutonium 9mo ago
      It's even worse than that. The ARM Core starts up, does crypto, Loads the SecureOS and the BIOS, then it starts the x86 CPU - In 16 bit mode! Which then boostraps itself through 32 then 64 bit mode. So in the first couple sends of power on, your CPU is at various points ARM, i386, x86, and x86_64.
      - lysace 9mo ago
        How much overhead (in terms of e.g. transistor count or silicon space) does this add? Surely at most it's a single digit percentage?
        immibis 9mo ago
        There isn't a separate 8086 core in every x64 core. The whole core has "if/then" spaghetti logic scattered throughout to alter its behaviour based on being in 16-bit mode. At best, they might have been able to confine the needed logic patches to the instruction-decoding front end.
      - palmotea 9mo ago
        > The ARM Core starts up, does crypto, Loads the SecureOS and the BIOS, then it starts the x86 CPU - In 16 bit mode! Which then boostraps itself through 32 then 64 bit mode. Well, what if I want to run a 16-bit OS? Also, I wonder if the transistor count of a literal entire 8086 processor is so small relative to the total that they just do that. According to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count#Microprocessors https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count#Microprocesso...: 1978 Intel 8086: 29,000 2021 Rocket Lake: 6,000,000,000 So you could fit 200,000+ 8086s on that not-so-cutting-edge silicon.

it probably wont

OpenAI buys all the RAM driving up the price so their models can shit out poorly optimized software so I have to buy more RAM. Awesome.

embedding-shape 9mo ago
Sure, except this time also add on US pressuring Korean companies to not sell their old equipment to Chinese manufacturers, so the supply could actually keep up. But no no, it's all OpenAI's fault for behaving like the capitalistic swines they are. Both suck, but one has a long-lasting impact, the other is just what capitalists always done, and will continue in the future.
- georgefrowny 9mo ago
  And then when China eventually produce not only RAM but the equipment to make it, it'll be shocked Pikachu all round.

lysace 9mo ago

Agreed - it's more likely to lead to poor user experience than anything else. Most end-user facing software/service companies will probably bet on the DRAM price peak being temporary. Software takes a lot of time to build. Codebases live for decades. There's often an impossibly large cost in starting over with a less wasteful architecture/language/etc. Think going from an Electron/Chromium app to something built using some compiled language and native OS GUI constructs that uses 10x less resources.

Workaccount2 9mo ago
The impossibly large cost is the difference between hardware and software returns. Hardware by nature forces redesigns whereas software it's always possible to just keep building on top of old bad designs, and so much cheaper and faster to do so. That's why hardware is 10,000x faster than 30 years ago, and even simple word processors are debatabely faster than 30 years ago. Maybe even slower.
- immibis 9mo ago
  Hardware isn't much better actually. There isn't a good way I can show you this, but every x64 CPU contains an entire ARM CPU whose job is to initialize the x64 CPU. And of course it runs two operating systems - TrustZone and Minix.
  - Krutonium 9mo ago
    It's even worse than that. The ARM Core starts up, does crypto, Loads the SecureOS and the BIOS, then it starts the x86 CPU - In 16 bit mode! Which then boostraps itself through 32 then 64 bit mode. So in the first couple sends of power on, your CPU is at various points ARM, i386, x86, and x86_64.
    - lysace 9mo ago
      How much overhead (in terms of e.g. transistor count or silicon space) does this add? Surely at most it's a single digit percentage?
      - immibis 9mo ago
        There isn't a separate 8086 core in every x64 core. The whole core has "if/then" spaghetti logic scattered throughout to alter its behaviour based on being in 16-bit mode. At best, they might have been able to confine the needed logic patches to the instruction-decoding front end.
    - palmotea 9mo ago
      > The ARM Core starts up, does crypto, Loads the SecureOS and the BIOS, then it starts the x86 CPU - In 16 bit mode! Which then boostraps itself through 32 then 64 bit mode. Well, what if I want to run a 16-bit OS? Also, I wonder if the transistor count of a literal entire 8086 processor is so small relative to the total that they just do that. According to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count#Microprocessors https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count#Microprocesso...: 1978 Intel 8086: 29,000 2021 Rocket Lake: 6,000,000,000 So you could fit 200,000+ 8086s on that not-so-cutting-edge silicon.