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Well, then the polymarket bet was written stupidly because you can argue all day about intent if you refuse to accept the man's words.
by NewJazz 10mo ago
Well, then the polymarket bet was written stupidly because you can argue all day about intent if you refuse to accept the man's words.
- zahlman 10mo ago> The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources. There are other credible sources whose consensus could be checked.
- NewJazz 10mo agoWhat credible source exists for the intent of this administration? You can have all the IR acumen in the world, but you won't be able to get into the head of this president.
- margalabargala 10mo agoNews sources in Venezuela reporting on the presence of American troops might be one? An invasion with the intent of taking control of the country would not involve troops arriving in the capital, completing their mission perfectly with no losses on their side, and then everybody leaving, such that no enemy troops remain.
- margalabargala 10mo agoThe bet wasn't "will President Trump claim to have invaded Venezuela", it was whether the US would actually do it. Your understanding of the relationship between the truth and the words being spoken by POTUS are the only discontinuity here. Update that expectation and everything makes sense.
- NewJazz 10mo agoThe US did launch a military offensive in Venezuela, albeit briefly. That is not in question. What is in question is the intent, which how do you know intent without accepting the publicly stated intent of the commander in chief? The bet was, specifically: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025, and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- margalabargala 10mo agoI'm not saying I know the intent. I'm saying you don't know the intent, because the word of the commander in chief is not sufficient evidence. Maybe Trump's eventual goal is to invade Venezuela with the intent of controlling it. I don't know. I do know that the intent of the brief military offensive was not to control it, because of what was done.
- machomaster 10mo agoYeah, not like the original plan was to keep the territory, but after failing they had to leave. No, they had a specific plan to capture Maduro and to leave; and this is exactly what they did.
- actionfromafar 10mo agoHe may also claim Venezuela is controlled by aliens. AFAIK the bet was not about what deranged stuff POTUS might express?