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The language says "if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela". Emphasis on "intended to".

by burkaman 10mo ago

The language says "if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela". Emphasis on "intended to". Speech does count as intention, even if you haven't successfully achieved whatever you say you're doing. If the President says the US intends to control Venezuela, then the Polymarket statement is true.

jjmarr 10mo ago
The military has to intend to control territory in the occupation sense. That means controlling the land, not the government. "Venezuela" refers to the land not the state. All the Israel markets have clearly established this interpretation. Israel has done many raids intended to influence foreign governments, but not to control territory, and those markets didn't count as invasion. There are other markets if you wanted to speculate on regime change or any kind of military action, but "invade" has a specific meaning. This happens every single market and it's free money for people that understand the rules.
- burkaman 10mo ago
  I don't use Polymarket so if this is the established precedent then that's fine, but I will maintain that it's a crazy interpretation of the word. One country's military violently ___ing another country and taking prisoners with the explicit goal of controlling that country is clearly an invasion. I'm struggling to think of another verb that could work in that sentence. Edit: I guess "raiding" as you say, but that's a tactic used during a war, and apparently we aren't at war. If Israel had announced after a raid that their intent was to control the target country, then I would say their raid was actually an invasion.
  - jjmarr 10mo ago
    From watching Polymarket, every war ends up being in some weird grey area that screws up the market. It's really hard to write unambiguous rules when there's money on the line. My favourite invasion market was the Syria one, where Israel took the peak of a mountain on the border of the Golan Heights and the rest of Syria, and there was a huge dispute over whether the peak itself counted as Syria proper. https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-invade-syria-in-2024 https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-invade-syria-in-202...
anon84873628 10mo ago
Pretty clear the US intends to control the oil fields.

jjmarr 10mo ago

The military has to intend to control territory in the occupation sense. That means controlling the land, not the government. "Venezuela" refers to the land not the state. All the Israel markets have clearly established this interpretation. Israel has done many raids intended to influence foreign governments, but not to control territory, and those markets didn't count as invasion. There are other markets if you wanted to speculate on regime change or any kind of military action, but "invade" has a specific meaning. This happens every single market and it's free money for people that understand the rules.

burkaman 10mo ago
I don't use Polymarket so if this is the established precedent then that's fine, but I will maintain that it's a crazy interpretation of the word. One country's military violently ___ing another country and taking prisoners with the explicit goal of controlling that country is clearly an invasion. I'm struggling to think of another verb that could work in that sentence. Edit: I guess "raiding" as you say, but that's a tactic used during a war, and apparently we aren't at war. If Israel had announced after a raid that their intent was to control the target country, then I would say their raid was actually an invasion.
- jjmarr 10mo ago
  From watching Polymarket, every war ends up being in some weird grey area that screws up the market. It's really hard to write unambiguous rules when there's money on the line. My favourite invasion market was the Syria one, where Israel took the peak of a mountain on the border of the Golan Heights and the rest of Syria, and there was a huge dispute over whether the peak itself counted as Syria proper. https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-invade-syria-in-2024 https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-invade-syria-in-202...

anon84873628 10mo ago

Pretty clear the US intends to control the oil fields.