3 ms·

Why would speech count as action? Am I running if I say "I'm running now" while I sit in my chair?

toss1 9mo ago
It does in situations where the speech is itself an action. E.g., "I declare the meeting open", or "The race starts when I say 'Go'... Take your marks, Set, Go!", etc.
shimman 9mo ago
Well the difference is you're a random commentator and the other is the sitting US President. One person's words matter more than the others, at least globally, I'll leave it as an exercise to the reader to figure it out.
- Aloisius 9mo ago
  Speech is not action regardless of speaker. I don't care if the almighty comes down, waves their tentacle and says "let there be light" - if it's still dark after their pronouncement, then anyone who bet a light would appear should lose the bet.
  - thaumasiotes 9mo ago
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Performative_utterance https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Performative_utterance Trump's declaration that he is taking over Venezuela fits pretty comfortably within this category. In your terms, a light did appear. You're right that the light is not directly connected to the utterance. But since the argument above that there was no invasion is premised on a lack of intent to invade rather than on the invasion not having happened, the utterance disproves that.
burkaman 9mo ago
The language says "if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela". Emphasis on "intended to". Speech does count as intention, even if you haven't successfully achieved whatever you say you're doing. If the President says the US intends to control Venezuela, then the Polymarket statement is true.
- jjmarr 9mo ago
  The military has to intend to control territory in the occupation sense. That means controlling the land, not the government. "Venezuela" refers to the land not the state. All the Israel markets have clearly established this interpretation. Israel has done many raids intended to influence foreign governments, but not to control territory, and those markets didn't count as invasion. There are other markets if you wanted to speculate on regime change or any kind of military action, but "invade" has a specific meaning. This happens every single market and it's free money for people that understand the rules.
  - burkaman 9mo ago
    I don't use Polymarket so if this is the established precedent then that's fine, but I will maintain that it's a crazy interpretation of the word. One country's military violently ___ing another country and taking prisoners with the explicit goal of controlling that country is clearly an invasion. I'm struggling to think of another verb that could work in that sentence. Edit: I guess "raiding" as you say, but that's a tactic used during a war, and apparently we aren't at war. If Israel had announced after a raid that their intent was to control the target country, then I would say their raid was actually an invasion.
    - jjmarr 9mo ago
      From watching Polymarket, every war ends up being in some weird grey area that screws up the market. It's really hard to write unambiguous rules when there's money on the line. My favourite invasion market was the Syria one, where Israel took the peak of a mountain on the border of the Golan Heights and the rest of Syria, and there was a huge dispute over whether the peak itself counted as Syria proper. https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-invade-syria-in-2024 https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-invade-syria-in-202...
- anon84873628 9mo ago
  Pretty clear the US intends to control the oil fields.
mattkrause 9mo ago
Speech can certainly be an action. "I'm running now" doesn't make you jog if you're sitting down, but it certainly kicks off a campaign if you were considering elected office. JL Austin called these sort of statements "performative utterances" and there's a lot of linguistic debate about them. Nevertheless, "I declare war", uttered by someone with the power to do so, is pretty unambiguously an example of one.

toss1 9mo ago

It does in situations where the speech is itself an action. E.g., "I declare the meeting open", or "The race starts when I say 'Go'... Take your marks, Set, Go!", etc.

shimman 9mo ago

Well the difference is you're a random commentator and the other is the sitting US President. One person's words matter more than the others, at least globally, I'll leave it as an exercise to the reader to figure it out.

Aloisius 9mo ago
Speech is not action regardless of speaker. I don't care if the almighty comes down, waves their tentacle and says "let there be light" - if it's still dark after their pronouncement, then anyone who bet a light would appear should lose the bet.
- thaumasiotes 9mo ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Performative_utterance https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Performative_utterance Trump's declaration that he is taking over Venezuela fits pretty comfortably within this category. In your terms, a light did appear. You're right that the light is not directly connected to the utterance. But since the argument above that there was no invasion is premised on a lack of intent to invade rather than on the invasion not having happened, the utterance disproves that.

burkaman 9mo ago

The language says "if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela". Emphasis on "intended to". Speech does count as intention, even if you haven't successfully achieved whatever you say you're doing. If the President says the US intends to control Venezuela, then the Polymarket statement is true.

jjmarr 9mo ago
The military has to intend to control territory in the occupation sense. That means controlling the land, not the government. "Venezuela" refers to the land not the state. All the Israel markets have clearly established this interpretation. Israel has done many raids intended to influence foreign governments, but not to control territory, and those markets didn't count as invasion. There are other markets if you wanted to speculate on regime change or any kind of military action, but "invade" has a specific meaning. This happens every single market and it's free money for people that understand the rules.
- burkaman 9mo ago
  I don't use Polymarket so if this is the established precedent then that's fine, but I will maintain that it's a crazy interpretation of the word. One country's military violently ___ing another country and taking prisoners with the explicit goal of controlling that country is clearly an invasion. I'm struggling to think of another verb that could work in that sentence. Edit: I guess "raiding" as you say, but that's a tactic used during a war, and apparently we aren't at war. If Israel had announced after a raid that their intent was to control the target country, then I would say their raid was actually an invasion.
  - jjmarr 9mo ago
    From watching Polymarket, every war ends up being in some weird grey area that screws up the market. It's really hard to write unambiguous rules when there's money on the line. My favourite invasion market was the Syria one, where Israel took the peak of a mountain on the border of the Golan Heights and the rest of Syria, and there was a huge dispute over whether the peak itself counted as Syria proper. https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-invade-syria-in-2024 https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-invade-syria-in-202...
anon84873628 9mo ago
Pretty clear the US intends to control the oil fields.

mattkrause 9mo ago

Speech can certainly be an action. "I'm running now" doesn't make you jog if you're sitting down, but it certainly kicks off a campaign if you were considering elected office. JL Austin called these sort of statements "performative utterances" and there's a lot of linguistic debate about them. Nevertheless, "I declare war", uttered by someone with the power to do so, is pretty unambiguously an example of one.