5 ms·

What most don’t realize is that this will happen to most businesses in all categories as more people rely on ChatGPT and Claude for discovery. No discovery - n

What most don’t realize is that this will happen to most businesses in all categories as more people rely on ChatGPT and Claude for discovery. No discovery - no business. And same with ads.if OpenAI decides not to add ads - prepare for even faster business consolidation. Those businesses preferred by llms will exponentially grow, others will quickly go out of business

mattgreenrocks 9mo ago
Underscoring the parent comment and adding to it: watching technologists on a site called Hacker News cheer on the centralization of power is really something.
- nine_k 9mo ago
  There's nothing cheerful in that comment, it describes a danger that inexorably draws nearer and nearer.
  - mattgreenrocks 9mo ago
    My post was meant to underscore the parent’s post, not argue with it.
  - npodbielski 9mo ago
    Maybe he meant this in more general way. Or this is how did read this.
- Aperocky 9mo ago
  I don't think any power is as centralized as Google is to search about 10 years ago? Or Facebook is to social media in the same time frame? What has changed other than the players?
  - raydev 9mo ago
    Google still offered a path for business/individuals that allowed both sides to profit immensely via advertising. Google also guided people to sources of information once you look past the ads. With the AI companies, they suck up all freely available and proprietary information, hide the sources, and give information away to consumers for mostly free.
  - johnnyanmac 9mo ago
    The dynamics. Discovery benefits all parties, and the middle man can take a cut in several ways (Google chose ads). The middleman never had to open up but that tube spread value instead of extracting it (at least, until they started renting seeking with the tube). Being the one stop knowledge hubs that sucks from everyone else only benefits the leech long term.
- marcus_holmes 9mo ago
  I think this phase of centralising power is part of the never-ending cycle of centralisation and distribution - mainframes -> PCs -> websites -> apps, and so on round we go. We will get a "data centres -> Personal LLMs" phase of the cycle which distributes it again. So my hope is that LLMs become local in a few years. We've been sitting around 16Gb of RAM on a laptop for 10-15 years now, not because RAM is too expensive or difficult to make, but because there's been no need for more than that for the average user. We could get "normal" laptop RAM up to 16Tb in a few years if there was commercial demand for it. We have processor architectures that are suitable for running LLMS better/faster/efficiently. We could include those in a standard laptop if there was commercial demand for it. Tokens are getting cheaper, dramatically, and will continue to do so. But we have an upper limit on LLM training complexity (we only have so much Internet data to train them on). Eventually the race between LLM complexity and processing speed will run out, and probably with processing speed as the winner. So my hope is that our laptops change, that they include a personally-adapted very capable LLM, run locally, and that we start to see a huge variety of LLMs available. I guess the closest analogy would be the OS's from "Her"; less typing, more talking, and something that is personalised, appearing to actually know the user, and run locally (which is important). I don't see anything stopping Linux from doing this too (but I'm not working in this area so I can't say for sure). Obviously we'll face the usual data thieves and surveillance capitalism along the way, but that's part of the process.
- johnnyanmac 9mo ago
  Last 3 years of discourse in a nutshell. Sinclair's quote rings true once again... Just a shame people don't think of the long term cost to this trend chasing. But then again, it wouldn't be a trend if people thought long term, would it?
Aurornis 9mo ago
> as more people rely on ChatGPT and Claude for discovery In my limited web dev experience with these tools, they suggest and push Tailwind CSS very often when asked for advice. The Tailwind company wasn't selling that, though. They were selling premium packages of components, templates, and themes. The demand for that type of material has dropped off significantly now that you can get an LLM to do a moderately good job of making common layouts and components. Then you can adjust them yourself until they're exactly what you want.
burningChrome 9mo ago
> No discovery - no business. I do SEO as a side gig to my 9-5 as a developer. All four of my freelance companies I work with have seen their traffic drop up to 40% since LLM's have effectively taken over and people are using search engines less and less. We've had to pivot to short form social media advertising which seems to be closing the gap whereas before the majority of our leads were coming from organic search and being ranked high in their respective industries. It certainly takes more effort to craft a script, film it, edit it to add text overlays, animations and catchy effects, but its showing me its being effective in the leads we're generating. I'm not sure if this is a sort of generational thing back when my parents were so engrained to use the yellow pages and then that stopped once the internet got into the advertising business - but it feels like a similar transition is taking place again. As many have already told me, "Ignore AI at your peril"
- motbus3 9mo ago
  Same where I work for 30% on some regions and for those where they put money only saw a minimum increase. I honestly think the company is run by some good folks that are really trying to do some positive impact. They refuse so all sorts of bs ad-tracking gray area stuff, yet, people don't give a dime. We caught over and over anthropic and others using shade tactics to bypass bot protection. They get the content, plagiarise it and contribute absolute nothing back. For weeks, openai was crawling our resources on DDOS levels of traffic. F them. They just are just stealing and making businesses fail. This will be a catastrophe for many but yet, people think there is no relation.
- Aperocky 9mo ago
  Perhaps SEO will become a business to churn out large amount of digestable text with friendly robot.txt and hoping the next AI model learns it? This seem to be the solution, just having a slightly longer turn around time.
- pier25 9mo ago
  I'm not sure if this is comparable to the yellow pages vs the internet. Google became profitable in 2001 whereas OpenAI et al are still operating at a huge loss. Even with ads it's not clear whether LLMs can be profitable unless they increase prices significantly.
pier25 9mo ago
> most businesses in all categories as more people rely on ChatGPT and Claude for discovery What about restaurants, transportation, construction, healthcare, or manufacturing? Will those go out of business too?
- acdha 9mo ago
  The better question is how well they do in a world where you have to pay OpenAI to be included. A local restaurant can likely survive on local advertising, neighborhood traffic, etc. but I’d bet a lot of categories further consolidate to favor larger companies who can negotiate LLM placement deals.
  - pier25 9mo ago
    So what you're saying is that LLMs will replace not only search but Google/Apple Maps as well?
TeMPOraL 9mo ago
As a user and customer, I see that as a good thing.

mattgreenrocks 9mo ago

Underscoring the parent comment and adding to it: watching technologists on a site called Hacker News cheer on the centralization of power is really something.

nine_k 9mo ago
There's nothing cheerful in that comment, it describes a danger that inexorably draws nearer and nearer.
- mattgreenrocks 9mo ago
  My post was meant to underscore the parent’s post, not argue with it.
- npodbielski 9mo ago
  Maybe he meant this in more general way. Or this is how did read this.
Aperocky 9mo ago
I don't think any power is as centralized as Google is to search about 10 years ago? Or Facebook is to social media in the same time frame? What has changed other than the players?
- raydev 9mo ago
  Google still offered a path for business/individuals that allowed both sides to profit immensely via advertising. Google also guided people to sources of information once you look past the ads. With the AI companies, they suck up all freely available and proprietary information, hide the sources, and give information away to consumers for mostly free.
- johnnyanmac 9mo ago
  The dynamics. Discovery benefits all parties, and the middle man can take a cut in several ways (Google chose ads). The middleman never had to open up but that tube spread value instead of extracting it (at least, until they started renting seeking with the tube). Being the one stop knowledge hubs that sucks from everyone else only benefits the leech long term.
marcus_holmes 9mo ago
I think this phase of centralising power is part of the never-ending cycle of centralisation and distribution - mainframes -> PCs -> websites -> apps, and so on round we go. We will get a "data centres -> Personal LLMs" phase of the cycle which distributes it again. So my hope is that LLMs become local in a few years. We've been sitting around 16Gb of RAM on a laptop for 10-15 years now, not because RAM is too expensive or difficult to make, but because there's been no need for more than that for the average user. We could get "normal" laptop RAM up to 16Tb in a few years if there was commercial demand for it. We have processor architectures that are suitable for running LLMS better/faster/efficiently. We could include those in a standard laptop if there was commercial demand for it. Tokens are getting cheaper, dramatically, and will continue to do so. But we have an upper limit on LLM training complexity (we only have so much Internet data to train them on). Eventually the race between LLM complexity and processing speed will run out, and probably with processing speed as the winner. So my hope is that our laptops change, that they include a personally-adapted very capable LLM, run locally, and that we start to see a huge variety of LLMs available. I guess the closest analogy would be the OS's from "Her"; less typing, more talking, and something that is personalised, appearing to actually know the user, and run locally (which is important). I don't see anything stopping Linux from doing this too (but I'm not working in this area so I can't say for sure). Obviously we'll face the usual data thieves and surveillance capitalism along the way, but that's part of the process.
johnnyanmac 9mo ago
Last 3 years of discourse in a nutshell. Sinclair's quote rings true once again... Just a shame people don't think of the long term cost to this trend chasing. But then again, it wouldn't be a trend if people thought long term, would it?

Aurornis 9mo ago

> as more people rely on ChatGPT and Claude for discovery In my limited web dev experience with these tools, they suggest and push Tailwind CSS very often when asked for advice. The Tailwind company wasn't selling that, though. They were selling premium packages of components, templates, and themes. The demand for that type of material has dropped off significantly now that you can get an LLM to do a moderately good job of making common layouts and components. Then you can adjust them yourself until they're exactly what you want.

burningChrome 9mo ago

> No discovery - no business. I do SEO as a side gig to my 9-5 as a developer. All four of my freelance companies I work with have seen their traffic drop up to 40% since LLM's have effectively taken over and people are using search engines less and less. We've had to pivot to short form social media advertising which seems to be closing the gap whereas before the majority of our leads were coming from organic search and being ranked high in their respective industries. It certainly takes more effort to craft a script, film it, edit it to add text overlays, animations and catchy effects, but its showing me its being effective in the leads we're generating. I'm not sure if this is a sort of generational thing back when my parents were so engrained to use the yellow pages and then that stopped once the internet got into the advertising business - but it feels like a similar transition is taking place again. As many have already told me, "Ignore AI at your peril"

motbus3 9mo ago
Same where I work for 30% on some regions and for those where they put money only saw a minimum increase. I honestly think the company is run by some good folks that are really trying to do some positive impact. They refuse so all sorts of bs ad-tracking gray area stuff, yet, people don't give a dime. We caught over and over anthropic and others using shade tactics to bypass bot protection. They get the content, plagiarise it and contribute absolute nothing back. For weeks, openai was crawling our resources on DDOS levels of traffic. F them. They just are just stealing and making businesses fail. This will be a catastrophe for many but yet, people think there is no relation.
Aperocky 9mo ago
Perhaps SEO will become a business to churn out large amount of digestable text with friendly robot.txt and hoping the next AI model learns it? This seem to be the solution, just having a slightly longer turn around time.
pier25 9mo ago
I'm not sure if this is comparable to the yellow pages vs the internet. Google became profitable in 2001 whereas OpenAI et al are still operating at a huge loss. Even with ads it's not clear whether LLMs can be profitable unless they increase prices significantly.

pier25 9mo ago

> most businesses in all categories as more people rely on ChatGPT and Claude for discovery What about restaurants, transportation, construction, healthcare, or manufacturing? Will those go out of business too?

acdha 9mo ago
The better question is how well they do in a world where you have to pay OpenAI to be included. A local restaurant can likely survive on local advertising, neighborhood traffic, etc. but I’d bet a lot of categories further consolidate to favor larger companies who can negotiate LLM placement deals.
- pier25 9mo ago
  So what you're saying is that LLMs will replace not only search but Google/Apple Maps as well?

TeMPOraL 9mo ago

As a user and customer, I see that as a good thing.