And then you find new S-curves. I wasn't talking about the Singularity, for what it's worth. I would also take another look at Moore's law along with researchin

And then you find new S-curves. I wasn't talking about the Singularity, for what it's worth. I would also take another look at Moore's law along with researching some of the other price/speed/computing laws dealing with progress over time that are analogous and just as important. However, no, progress isn't easy or entirely predictable. You are correct. However, it's much harder when you have to focus energy on those who don't want progress to happen, for whatever reason they might have. While this time the discussion was aimed at those who would fear-monger based on job figures, it will often be the incumbents in the field trying desperately to stay fat & relevant without having to become uncomfortable, and my larger point was that you can't just argue directly against every emotionally resounding, but incorrect, argument when dealing with a shift in paradigm. In every big change in the world, there will be short term "winners" and "losers", relative to where they were before, even if the change results in large advances for almost everyone in the long term. Those who are going to be given the short end of that stick will not change their mind no matter what, and it only raises the profile and perceived validity of the argument when you treat it as the correct way to frame the issue.