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One of my clients is a midsized logistics brokerage based in LA. Right now is RFP season, where they bid on freight contracts with various existing and potentia
by adriand 9mo ago
One of my clients is a midsized logistics brokerage based in LA. Right now is RFP season, where they bid on freight contracts with various existing and potential customers. These contracts are typically one year long. A bid you submit now might be for a contract that goes Sept-Sept.
This is difficult even under normal circumstances because you have to predict what carrier (trucker) rates will be in the future. You also have to predict fuel costs, because even though these are usually variable, when fuel costs go up so does your margin (so if you expect higher fuel prices you can lower your bid price). And you have to game out what your competitors are going to bid too. You can’t be too conservative (expensive) or you won’t get the bid. But if you lock in a contract with a certain expectation of rates and it swings the other way, you’re on the hook for millions in losses.
Now imagine doing that normally difficult task in this environment. Who knows what will happen. Wars, a revocation of trucker drivers’ licenses (already happening in Cali), deportations, tariffs, the collapse of USMCA…the uncertainty is near endless. Big tech companies are doing great, everyone else is getting absolutely destroyed.
- oceansky 9mo agoWhy is the revocation taking place? Is it related to the federal government?
- jldugger 9mo agoRelated, yes. US DoT wants non-dom CDLs revoked[1]: > The decision comes amid pressure from the U.S. Department of Transportation, which announced in November 2025 that it would compel California to revoke thousands of what it calls “illegally issued” non-domiciled Commercial Driver’s Licenses. [1]: https://www.newsnationnow.com/politics/california-cancellation-migrant-trucker-licenses/ https://www.newsnationnow.com/politics/california-cancellati...
- klooney 9mo agoThere's been a big up about undocumented Sikh commercial drivers with CDL licenses, primarily because there have been some spectacular fatal crashes on video.
- phyzix5761 9mo agoTypically companies use things like futures, options, and forward contracts to fix or cap their input costs for commodities like oil. This lets them bid on projects without needing to know the future price of oil.
- DwnVoteHoneyPot 9mo agoSeriously? What hedge contract you going to use for: 1) Wars, 2) a revocation of trucker drivers’ licenses (already happening in Cali), 3)deportations, 4)tariffs, 5) the collapse of USMCA
- JumpCrisscross 9mo agoWar-risk insurance is a thing [1]. You could probably buy a business-interruption policy with a line item for revocations. Adding a tariff contingency to customer contracts and/or engaging with vendors on a fixed-price tariff-notwithstanding basis transfers tariff risk. Deportatios and the collapse of a free-trade zone are not mitigatable. De-leveraging from products that don't have a strong domestic alternative would be the only options there. All costs. None easy. But all doable. (Not saying it's good business.) [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_risk_insurance https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_risk_insurance
- BobaFloutist 9mo agoRight, and then you lose the contract to someone who decided, rather than pricing in the risks, to have their hedge be "Idk guess I'll go bankrupt lmao" and bid as usual.
- kevinhanson 9mo agoOh, that's easy. Just make bets on Polymarket, which totally has no connection to anyone in the adminstration. https://www.npr.org/2026/01/05/nx-s1-5667232/polymarket-maduro-bet-insider-trading https://www.npr.org/2026/01/05/nx-s1-5667232/polymarket-madu...
- deleted 9mo ago[deleted]
- eli_gottlieb 9mo ago> Wars, a revocation of trucker drivers’ licenses (already happening in Cali), deportations, tariffs, the collapse of USMCA…the uncertainty is near endless. So, uh, did business owners actually take any of these things, which very much were promised during campaign season, into account when voting? Or did they walk into the ballot box thinking, "no-one wants to work anymore!" and pull the lever for the guy promising to make applicants a bit more motivated to work at lower wages?