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> I thought people recognized that they don't appear out of nowhere. I don't think that paper is widely accepted. Have you seen the authors of that paper, or a
by gwern 9mo ago
> I thought people recognized that they don't appear out of nowhere.
I don't think that paper is widely accepted. Have you seen the authors of that paper, or anyone else, use it to successfully predict (rather than postdict) anything?
- charcircuit 9mo agoI haven't paid attention and the paper seems to be arguing against the existence of the phenomenon of emergence behavior and is not related to predicting what is possible with greater scale.
- gwern 9mo ago> is not related to predicting what is possible with greater scale. If they can't predict new emergence, then 'explaining' old emergence by post hoc prediction with bizarre newly-invented metrics would seem to be irrelevant and just epicycles. You can always bend a line as you wish in curve-fitting by adding some parameters.