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>Why almost all traffic jams occur is distracted and poor driving. Traffic jams most often occur during periods of peak usage (rush hour). How much of this is

>Why almost all traffic jams occur is distracted and poor driving. Traffic jams most often occur during periods of peak usage (rush hour). How much of this is attributable to driver attention vs the inherent inefficiency of many independent vehicles attempting to coordinate speed, position, exiting, entering, etc? I don't take for granted that independent (vs synchronized) FSD would be significantly better.

idontwantthis 9mo ago
Exactly. If the solution is not fewer vehicles on the road then it is not inherently going to reduce traffic congestion. More vehicles take up more space. There’s no way around that and it’s why municipalities keep needing to expand highways every few years but congestion never decreases.
- sokoloff 9mo ago
  I disagree in part. FSD cars driving independently could still leave green lights with less wasted time (inattention [read: phones], reaction time), could also be much less prone to “blocking the box”, and could avoid most instances of multi-minute double-parking (by driving around or driving to park safely/legally). All of those would reduce traffic congestion without reducing cars on the road and even with a modest increase in total vehicle miles driven. FSD cars that coordinated with each other could leave lights even more quickly and better collaborate to zipper, observe/communicate/predict lights and modulate speed to prevent excessive stopping, etc.
  - idontwantthis 9mo ago
    A world of robotaxis requires a huge percentage increase in the number of cars on roads because you will need many empty cars on the roads at all times repositioning or picking up passengers. I can’t see how that won’t negate and even be worse than any benefit from improved reaction times. Any attempt to solve for repositioning just takes you closer and closer to buses or trains.
    - 1shooner 9mo ago
      >you will need many empty cars on the roads at all times Not necessarily. FSD services would probably optimize for occupancy, which would mean limited and unpredictable availability for customers. Since the fleet is a capital investment rather than being floated by gig workers, supply would presumably be more constrained than Uber etc are now, and we see what happens at peak demand with them. I don't see that business logic changing between Uber drivers and FSD.
      - idontwantthis 9mo ago
        Why not have the FSD services run on predetermined routes along high density corridors on a schedule? Then they would be filled optimally on average.
    - JasonADrury 9mo ago
      Given reasonable lead times on bookings, you'd need less cars on the road per trip than now. Especially since demand tends to be predictable. The really big win here is parking and time spent looking for it. Self-driving trips can just be shorter
      - idontwantthis 9mo ago
        If you have 100 people who want to get somewhere in their own car at the same time, that requires a minimum of 100 cars. The lead time doesn’t factor into it. Parking is a problem because of our dependence on cars. You also don’t need to park if you take a bus or a train and the things you want to get to are built near the bus and train stations.
        JasonADrury 9mo ago
        Those cars have to spend less time on the road because they don't have to spend time on parking, this leads to less car-hours on the road for the same trips. Those cars will also be faster, safer and pick better routes than humans. > You also don’t need to park if you take a bus or a train and the things you want to get to are built near the bus and train stations. It is nonsensical to compare self-driving cars against buses or trains in a situation where we still have tons of private cars on the road. FSD can totally improve buses too, and well-designed multi-passenger vehicles can certainly easily end up making up most of the fleet. You could for example seat 4 people in completely isolated spaces without needing outrageously large vehicles. That'd be great for serving commutes where loads of people are going to the same areas.

idontwantthis 9mo ago

Exactly. If the solution is not fewer vehicles on the road then it is not inherently going to reduce traffic congestion. More vehicles take up more space. There’s no way around that and it’s why municipalities keep needing to expand highways every few years but congestion never decreases.

sokoloff 9mo ago
I disagree in part. FSD cars driving independently could still leave green lights with less wasted time (inattention [read: phones], reaction time), could also be much less prone to “blocking the box”, and could avoid most instances of multi-minute double-parking (by driving around or driving to park safely/legally). All of those would reduce traffic congestion without reducing cars on the road and even with a modest increase in total vehicle miles driven. FSD cars that coordinated with each other could leave lights even more quickly and better collaborate to zipper, observe/communicate/predict lights and modulate speed to prevent excessive stopping, etc.
- idontwantthis 9mo ago
  A world of robotaxis requires a huge percentage increase in the number of cars on roads because you will need many empty cars on the roads at all times repositioning or picking up passengers. I can’t see how that won’t negate and even be worse than any benefit from improved reaction times. Any attempt to solve for repositioning just takes you closer and closer to buses or trains.
  - 1shooner 9mo ago
    >you will need many empty cars on the roads at all times Not necessarily. FSD services would probably optimize for occupancy, which would mean limited and unpredictable availability for customers. Since the fleet is a capital investment rather than being floated by gig workers, supply would presumably be more constrained than Uber etc are now, and we see what happens at peak demand with them. I don't see that business logic changing between Uber drivers and FSD.
    - idontwantthis 9mo ago
      Why not have the FSD services run on predetermined routes along high density corridors on a schedule? Then they would be filled optimally on average.
  - JasonADrury 9mo ago
    Given reasonable lead times on bookings, you'd need less cars on the road per trip than now. Especially since demand tends to be predictable. The really big win here is parking and time spent looking for it. Self-driving trips can just be shorter
    - idontwantthis 9mo ago
      If you have 100 people who want to get somewhere in their own car at the same time, that requires a minimum of 100 cars. The lead time doesn’t factor into it. Parking is a problem because of our dependence on cars. You also don’t need to park if you take a bus or a train and the things you want to get to are built near the bus and train stations.
      - JasonADrury 9mo ago
        Those cars have to spend less time on the road because they don't have to spend time on parking, this leads to less car-hours on the road for the same trips. Those cars will also be faster, safer and pick better routes than humans. > You also don’t need to park if you take a bus or a train and the things you want to get to are built near the bus and train stations. It is nonsensical to compare self-driving cars against buses or trains in a situation where we still have tons of private cars on the road. FSD can totally improve buses too, and well-designed multi-passenger vehicles can certainly easily end up making up most of the fleet. You could for example seat 4 people in completely isolated spaces without needing outrageously large vehicles. That'd be great for serving commutes where loads of people are going to the same areas.