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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-satellite_weapon https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-satellite_weapon Keep in mind that the last US test was in 2008 using ba

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-satellite_weapon https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-satellite_weapon Keep in mind that the last US test was in 2008 using basic rocket weaponry. The targets were much bigger, deeper in space, and more maneuverable than the Starlink ones. The only reason we don't do more "kinetic" satellite test strikes is precisely why they are so vulnerable - hitting one creates enough space debris to destroy many, many more other satellites in the same orbit. The only advantage starlink has is the sheer number, and low cost - but just a couple of strikes would be enough to effectively disable most of their network.

consumer451 10mo ago
There are many ways to take out one satellite, an F-15, a Standard Missile from a Navy vessel, etc. Many countries have that capability. However, there is no known way to take out 1k out of a 30k constellation. Even if one accomplished that, then there are still 29k nodes left.
- legitster 10mo ago
  Again, the debris cloud from one strike could disable the entire constellation on the same orbit. Especially if it was engineered to do so. But even doing literally nothing, the constellation will fall out of orbit over the course of 5 years if we choose not to supply it with new nodes. The idea of an unstoppable AGI in space is a completely implausible scenario based on current or near technology.
  - consumer451 10mo ago
    I agree, and I hate to do this as someone who is not an AGI/ASI person: Space is huge. We live on the pond scum layer of the planet. However, my point was: what if a bunch of greedy morons launched >10k inference machines into orbit. Then, self propagating ASI occurred. Now what?
    - legitster 10mo ago
      How would it self-propagate?
      - consumer451 10mo ago
        Well, via a worm using "obvious" opportunities that no human had noticed. That is the entire magical ~.01% chance of some runaway ASI ideas, isn't it? Honestly, the more realistic reason for orbital inferance is that the bull case for LLM automation is that what, >50% of knowledge workers (middle to upper-middle class) will be fired in the next few years? That would likely cause trouble. It's a lot harder for the 2020's Luddites to destroy their replacements if they are in orbit, vs in some field. The other argument is power supply. Have not done the math on that. Disclaimer: I am grasping at straws here to try to understand how orbital LLMs could ever break even. It just seems like a significant risk, for our species.
        bigyabai 10mo ago
        It's easy to get caught up in the high-fantasy sci-fi politicking, here. For the past 50 years, there have been private American space ventures promising everything from round-trip tourism to asteroid mining, and it just hasn't happened. There's no shortage of imaginative ways to leverage space, but the realistically rewarding applications are quite limited. Orbital inference isn't intended to break even, or present a significant risk. It has every hallmark of a marketing stunt.

consumer451 10mo ago

There are many ways to take out one satellite, an F-15, a Standard Missile from a Navy vessel, etc. Many countries have that capability. However, there is no known way to take out 1k out of a 30k constellation. Even if one accomplished that, then there are still 29k nodes left.

legitster 10mo ago
Again, the debris cloud from one strike could disable the entire constellation on the same orbit. Especially if it was engineered to do so. But even doing literally nothing, the constellation will fall out of orbit over the course of 5 years if we choose not to supply it with new nodes. The idea of an unstoppable AGI in space is a completely implausible scenario based on current or near technology.
- consumer451 10mo ago
  I agree, and I hate to do this as someone who is not an AGI/ASI person: Space is huge. We live on the pond scum layer of the planet. However, my point was: what if a bunch of greedy morons launched >10k inference machines into orbit. Then, self propagating ASI occurred. Now what?
  - legitster 10mo ago
    How would it self-propagate?
    - consumer451 10mo ago
      Well, via a worm using "obvious" opportunities that no human had noticed. That is the entire magical ~.01% chance of some runaway ASI ideas, isn't it? Honestly, the more realistic reason for orbital inferance is that the bull case for LLM automation is that what, >50% of knowledge workers (middle to upper-middle class) will be fired in the next few years? That would likely cause trouble. It's a lot harder for the 2020's Luddites to destroy their replacements if they are in orbit, vs in some field. The other argument is power supply. Have not done the math on that. Disclaimer: I am grasping at straws here to try to understand how orbital LLMs could ever break even. It just seems like a significant risk, for our species.
      - bigyabai 10mo ago
        It's easy to get caught up in the high-fantasy sci-fi politicking, here. For the past 50 years, there have been private American space ventures promising everything from round-trip tourism to asteroid mining, and it just hasn't happened. There's no shortage of imaginative ways to leverage space, but the realistically rewarding applications are quite limited. Orbital inference isn't intended to break even, or present a significant risk. It has every hallmark of a marketing stunt.