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We can hope but I'm not very optimistic about this not getting crushed again or there being any more than a vague thumbs up from abroad for the protesters. It s
by jillesvangurp 10mo ago
We can hope but I'm not very optimistic about this not getting crushed again or there being any more than a vague thumbs up from abroad for the protesters. It seems they are on their own. But I could understand Iranians choosing to stay safe rather then risk their lives protesting given the way this has gone in the past.
On the other hand the sudden collapse of the Assad regime in Syria shows these things sometimes do happen. But I don't think similar conditions exist in Iran. There seems to be a lot of anger but very little organized opposition. But there are some reasons to assume the regime might fracture internally where religious extremists and conservative but more pragmatic opportunists running e.g. the military part ways.
An Egyptian model might be more lucrative for those types where you get a kleptocratic elite getting more diplomatic about restoring international relationships in exchange for sanctions lifting and access to international markets to get filthy rich from the natural resources that Iran is currently sitting on. My impression is that the current unrest is caused by economics, not ideology. But a lot would need to change in Iran for this to happen. The poor health of Khamenei might trigger such a thing in the context of a wider leadership battle.
- buzzwords 10mo agoHave friends with relatives there. I think the fear of what's next is as potent as the frustration of what is happening with the current government.
- breppp 10mo ago> restoring international relationships in exchange for sanctions lifting and access to international markets to get filthy rich The issue is the Iranian elites are getting filthy rich from sanctions and have a vested interest in them. The IRGC has its own smuggling networks and its own companies which it can use to evade taxes and sell its own imported goods for lower prices locally