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My Iranian friends live between a state of high hope (at times like this) to crushing frustration when it does not succeed. I'm hoping we avoid the latter state

by harel 9mo ago

My Iranian friends live between a state of high hope (at times like this) to crushing frustration when it does not succeed. I'm hoping we avoid the latter state this time around.

jillesvangurp 9mo ago
We can hope but I'm not very optimistic about this not getting crushed again or there being any more than a vague thumbs up from abroad for the protesters. It seems they are on their own. But I could understand Iranians choosing to stay safe rather then risk their lives protesting given the way this has gone in the past. On the other hand the sudden collapse of the Assad regime in Syria shows these things sometimes do happen. But I don't think similar conditions exist in Iran. There seems to be a lot of anger but very little organized opposition. But there are some reasons to assume the regime might fracture internally where religious extremists and conservative but more pragmatic opportunists running e.g. the military part ways. An Egyptian model might be more lucrative for those types where you get a kleptocratic elite getting more diplomatic about restoring international relationships in exchange for sanctions lifting and access to international markets to get filthy rich from the natural resources that Iran is currently sitting on. My impression is that the current unrest is caused by economics, not ideology. But a lot would need to change in Iran for this to happen. The poor health of Khamenei might trigger such a thing in the context of a wider leadership battle.
- buzzwords 9mo ago
  Have friends with relatives there. I think the fear of what's next is as potent as the frustration of what is happening with the current government.
- breppp 9mo ago
  > restoring international relationships in exchange for sanctions lifting and access to international markets to get filthy rich The issue is the Iranian elites are getting filthy rich from sanctions and have a vested interest in them. The IRGC has its own smuggling networks and its own companies which it can use to evade taxes and sell its own imported goods for lower prices locally
throwaway37426 9mo ago
> when it does not succeed Iranian here. I think we've been successful! After the Woman Life Freedom movement, there's a noticeable change on how government enforces hijab rules! Not because they don't want to force hijab and their religion on us, but because they know they can't do it like that anymore. They are scared! That's a big win in my book. I know it might not seem much but I believe it is! No big change happens in one day. I think what you refer to, is the "last" protest/movement before everything falls apart. If you've been born into these freedoms that we're fighting so hard for, you've been through this process before; by your ancestors. It's hard to appreciate how difficult it is to achieve the smallest of wins. You're not ignorant, it's just difficult to comprehend if you're not in the midst of it. I also think this should serve as a warning to people whose freedoms are being eroded in western world right now. If you loose them for good, This is the process for getting them back and this is the price you'll have to pay.
- eql5 9mo ago
  For those being into prophecy (like myself): yes it WILL SUCCEED this time! The Iranian terror regime is finished. (Unfortunately most people completely ignore the SPIRITUAL dimension of things...)
  - throwaway37426 9mo ago
    Yeah, no thanks! The current regime is all about spirituality, prophecies and magic and look where that got us. We don't need anymore of that. I hope you're right and the regime is gone for good this time, but we need rationality, pragmatism, democracy, science, good education and economic policies, modern government and the rest of the obvious things we should have that a well developed nation needs.
- harel 9mo ago
  I'm get you and and I'm behind you 1000% and I wish there was something I could offer as substantial help. Iran as a culture and a people is very dear to me even though the current regime would rather have me not breathing on account of my country of origin, and have actively invested crazy money in that aim, luckily unsuccessfully.

by harel 9mo ago

My Iranian friends live between a state of high hope (at times like this) to crushing frustration when it does not succeed. I'm hoping we avoid the latter state this time around.

jillesvangurp 9mo ago

We can hope but I'm not very optimistic about this not getting crushed again or there being any more than a vague thumbs up from abroad for the protesters. It seems they are on their own. But I could understand Iranians choosing to stay safe rather then risk their lives protesting given the way this has gone in the past. On the other hand the sudden collapse of the Assad regime in Syria shows these things sometimes do happen. But I don't think similar conditions exist in Iran. There seems to be a lot of anger but very little organized opposition. But there are some reasons to assume the regime might fracture internally where religious extremists and conservative but more pragmatic opportunists running e.g. the military part ways. An Egyptian model might be more lucrative for those types where you get a kleptocratic elite getting more diplomatic about restoring international relationships in exchange for sanctions lifting and access to international markets to get filthy rich from the natural resources that Iran is currently sitting on. My impression is that the current unrest is caused by economics, not ideology. But a lot would need to change in Iran for this to happen. The poor health of Khamenei might trigger such a thing in the context of a wider leadership battle.

buzzwords 9mo ago
Have friends with relatives there. I think the fear of what's next is as potent as the frustration of what is happening with the current government.
breppp 9mo ago
> restoring international relationships in exchange for sanctions lifting and access to international markets to get filthy rich The issue is the Iranian elites are getting filthy rich from sanctions and have a vested interest in them. The IRGC has its own smuggling networks and its own companies which it can use to evade taxes and sell its own imported goods for lower prices locally

throwaway37426 9mo ago

> when it does not succeed Iranian here. I think we've been successful! After the Woman Life Freedom movement, there's a noticeable change on how government enforces hijab rules! Not because they don't want to force hijab and their religion on us, but because they know they can't do it like that anymore. They are scared! That's a big win in my book. I know it might not seem much but I believe it is! No big change happens in one day. I think what you refer to, is the "last" protest/movement before everything falls apart. If you've been born into these freedoms that we're fighting so hard for, you've been through this process before; by your ancestors. It's hard to appreciate how difficult it is to achieve the smallest of wins. You're not ignorant, it's just difficult to comprehend if you're not in the midst of it. I also think this should serve as a warning to people whose freedoms are being eroded in western world right now. If you loose them for good, This is the process for getting them back and this is the price you'll have to pay.

eql5 9mo ago
For those being into prophecy (like myself): yes it WILL SUCCEED this time! The Iranian terror regime is finished. (Unfortunately most people completely ignore the SPIRITUAL dimension of things...)
- throwaway37426 9mo ago
  Yeah, no thanks! The current regime is all about spirituality, prophecies and magic and look where that got us. We don't need anymore of that. I hope you're right and the regime is gone for good this time, but we need rationality, pragmatism, democracy, science, good education and economic policies, modern government and the rest of the obvious things we should have that a well developed nation needs.
harel 9mo ago
I'm get you and and I'm behind you 1000% and I wish there was something I could offer as substantial help. Iran as a culture and a people is very dear to me even though the current regime would rather have me not breathing on account of my country of origin, and have actively invested crazy money in that aim, luckily unsuccessfully.