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It pretty much did join the work force. Listen to the fed chair, listen to related analysis, the unexpected overperformance of GDP isn’t directly attributed AI

It pretty much did join the work force. Listen to the fed chair, listen to related analysis, the unexpected overperformance of GDP isn’t directly attributed AI but it is very much in the “how did that happen?” conversation. And there’s plenty of softer, more anecdotal evidence in addition to that to respond to the headline with “It did.” The fact that it has been gradual and subtle as the very first agent tools reach production readiness, gain awareness in the public, start being used…? That really doesn’t seem at all unexpected as the path than “joining” would follow.

asa400 9mo ago
> the unexpected overperformance of GDP isn’t directly attributed AI but it is very much in the “how did that happen?” conversation. We spent an amount of money on data centers that was so large that it managed to overcome a self-imposed kick in the nuts from tariffs and then some. The amount of money involved rivals the creation of the railroad system in the United States. Of course GDP overperformed in that scenario. Where did AI tool use show up in the productivity numbers?
- ineedasername 9mo ago
  Productivity increase is what showed in the numbers. AI is the partial attribution chair Powell gave for the reason. Quotes from December meeting: "Reporter: ...do you believe that we’re experiencing a positive productivity shock, whether from AI or policy factors or whatever?" "Powell: So, yeah, I mean, I never thought I would see a time when we had, you know, five, six years of 2 percent productivity growth. This is higher. You know, this is definitely higher. And it was—before, it could be attributed to AI. I think you—I also think if you look at what AI can do and if you use it in your personal life, as I imagine many of us have, you can see the prospects for productivity. I think it makes people who use it more productive. It may make other people have to find other jobs, though. So it could have productivity implications" And: "Reporter: If I could just follow up on the SEP. You have a whole lot of—big increase in the growth numbers, but not a big decline in the unemployment numbers. And is that an AI factor in there?" "Powell: So it is—the implication is obviously higher productivity. And some of that may be AI." He also hedges in places, hesitant to say "Yes that's the reason". I'm not sure anything in the data sets they use could directly capture it as the reason so that's too high a bar for evidence- to require some line item in the reports with a direct attribution. He could be wrong, it might not be AI, but I don't have any reason to thing his sense of things is wrong either.
wing-_-nuts 9mo ago
>Listen to the fed chair, listen to related analysis, the unexpected overperformance of GDP isn’t directly attributed AI but it is very much in the “how did that happen?” conversation I would very much like to read this if you have a link
- asadotzler 9mo ago
  They're just bluffing. It's bullshitting they get away with everywhere else so they think it's acceptable here.
  - ineedasername 9mo ago
    I won't take offense since I doubt you meant me in particular. So, while it's tedious to have to go back over web history from weeks ago to cite my sources like its high school every time I reference a specific, concrete source that people here can followup for themselves, I did it because it's worth doing, given that your sentiment is also not completely wrong: lots and lots of BS being thrown around all over the place on AI, so here's the direct source, chair Powell's report from December, and he's actually stating some things stronger than I remembered: AI is a large theme throughout but page 7 and 24 have specifically relevant remarks about the better than expected number, productivity's increases in relation to both this and AI, data centers, etc. https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20251210.pdf https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCprescon...
- ineedasername 9mo ago
  Sure, here's the transcript, AI is a large theme throughout but page 7 and 24 have specifically relevant remarks about the better than expected number, productivity's increases in relation to both this and AI, data centers, etc., but really the whole thing is peppered with details related to AI so it's worth reading in depth if you want the Fed's synthesized pov, and the press at these meetings ask incisive questions. https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20251210.pdf https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCprescon...
  - 9mo ago
janalsncm 9mo ago
My understanding was that the growth came mainly from things like building data centers and buying chips. Boring old fashioned stuff.
- mr_toad 9mo ago
  This is why I’m not worried about an imminent AI bubble burst. The data centers will be built, the GPUs have already been ordered, etc. What I am worried about is what happens when in 2-3 years time the AI companies need to find paying customers to use those data centers. Then it might be time to rebalance into gold or something.
  - LunaSea 9mo ago
    The energy isn't available and that is going to take much longer to build.
    - mr_toad 9mo ago
      Grid energy is lacking for now, which is why the new builds have their own power supplies. It’s a good time to be in the solar/battery/turbine industries.
- ineedasername 9mo ago
  Those were known factors. I'm referencing Powell, in the late December meeting. There wasn't much substantive change in terms of knowledge about how much building was going on since the prior September GDP release that would say "yes, after September we learned X, so that's why forecasts were lower than actual". In his address, and in his followup with questions from the press, Powell specifically talks about data centers and AI-driven productivity separately. These aren't context free data points you have to interpret, this is synthesized analysis being delivered in a report by the Fed Chair, giving his & the reserve's own interpretation. He could be wrong, but it is clear their belief is that AI is a likely factor, while also there is not certainty on that interpretation. They've up'ed their estimates for April though, and this advanced estimate from December is about to be followed up with the revised, final numbers on Jan 23'rd, so we'll find out a little more then, and a lot more in April.
PunchyHamster 9mo ago
> the unexpected overperformance of GDP isn’t directly attributed AI but it is very much in the “how did that happen?” conversation. it's builing datacenters and buying servers and GPUs. It isn't directly attributed to AI because it isn't caused by use of AI, but blowing the AI bubble

asa400 9mo ago

> the unexpected overperformance of GDP isn’t directly attributed AI but it is very much in the “how did that happen?” conversation. We spent an amount of money on data centers that was so large that it managed to overcome a self-imposed kick in the nuts from tariffs and then some. The amount of money involved rivals the creation of the railroad system in the United States. Of course GDP overperformed in that scenario. Where did AI tool use show up in the productivity numbers?

ineedasername 9mo ago
Productivity increase is what showed in the numbers. AI is the partial attribution chair Powell gave for the reason. Quotes from December meeting: "Reporter: ...do you believe that we’re experiencing a positive productivity shock, whether from AI or policy factors or whatever?" "Powell: So, yeah, I mean, I never thought I would see a time when we had, you know, five, six years of 2 percent productivity growth. This is higher. You know, this is definitely higher. And it was—before, it could be attributed to AI. I think you—I also think if you look at what AI can do and if you use it in your personal life, as I imagine many of us have, you can see the prospects for productivity. I think it makes people who use it more productive. It may make other people have to find other jobs, though. So it could have productivity implications" And: "Reporter: If I could just follow up on the SEP. You have a whole lot of—big increase in the growth numbers, but not a big decline in the unemployment numbers. And is that an AI factor in there?" "Powell: So it is—the implication is obviously higher productivity. And some of that may be AI." He also hedges in places, hesitant to say "Yes that's the reason". I'm not sure anything in the data sets they use could directly capture it as the reason so that's too high a bar for evidence- to require some line item in the reports with a direct attribution. He could be wrong, it might not be AI, but I don't have any reason to thing his sense of things is wrong either.

wing-_-nuts 9mo ago

>Listen to the fed chair, listen to related analysis, the unexpected overperformance of GDP isn’t directly attributed AI but it is very much in the “how did that happen?” conversation I would very much like to read this if you have a link

asadotzler 9mo ago
They're just bluffing. It's bullshitting they get away with everywhere else so they think it's acceptable here.
- ineedasername 9mo ago
  I won't take offense since I doubt you meant me in particular. So, while it's tedious to have to go back over web history from weeks ago to cite my sources like its high school every time I reference a specific, concrete source that people here can followup for themselves, I did it because it's worth doing, given that your sentiment is also not completely wrong: lots and lots of BS being thrown around all over the place on AI, so here's the direct source, chair Powell's report from December, and he's actually stating some things stronger than I remembered: AI is a large theme throughout but page 7 and 24 have specifically relevant remarks about the better than expected number, productivity's increases in relation to both this and AI, data centers, etc. https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20251210.pdf https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCprescon...
ineedasername 9mo ago
Sure, here's the transcript, AI is a large theme throughout but page 7 and 24 have specifically relevant remarks about the better than expected number, productivity's increases in relation to both this and AI, data centers, etc., but really the whole thing is peppered with details related to AI so it's worth reading in depth if you want the Fed's synthesized pov, and the press at these meetings ask incisive questions. https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20251210.pdf https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCprescon...
- 9mo ago

janalsncm 9mo ago

My understanding was that the growth came mainly from things like building data centers and buying chips. Boring old fashioned stuff.

mr_toad 9mo ago
This is why I’m not worried about an imminent AI bubble burst. The data centers will be built, the GPUs have already been ordered, etc. What I am worried about is what happens when in 2-3 years time the AI companies need to find paying customers to use those data centers. Then it might be time to rebalance into gold or something.
- LunaSea 9mo ago
  The energy isn't available and that is going to take much longer to build.
  - mr_toad 9mo ago
    Grid energy is lacking for now, which is why the new builds have their own power supplies. It’s a good time to be in the solar/battery/turbine industries.
ineedasername 9mo ago
Those were known factors. I'm referencing Powell, in the late December meeting. There wasn't much substantive change in terms of knowledge about how much building was going on since the prior September GDP release that would say "yes, after September we learned X, so that's why forecasts were lower than actual". In his address, and in his followup with questions from the press, Powell specifically talks about data centers and AI-driven productivity separately. These aren't context free data points you have to interpret, this is synthesized analysis being delivered in a report by the Fed Chair, giving his & the reserve's own interpretation. He could be wrong, but it is clear their belief is that AI is a likely factor, while also there is not certainty on that interpretation. They've up'ed their estimates for April though, and this advanced estimate from December is about to be followed up with the revised, final numbers on Jan 23'rd, so we'll find out a little more then, and a lot more in April.

PunchyHamster 9mo ago

> the unexpected overperformance of GDP isn’t directly attributed AI but it is very much in the “how did that happen?” conversation. it's builing datacenters and buying servers and GPUs. It isn't directly attributed to AI because it isn't caused by use of AI, but blowing the AI bubble