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If this is all true, then China has been pretty much given green light to invade Taiwan, in my opinion.

by golem14 10mo ago

erxam 10mo ago
[flagged]
poszlem 10mo ago
There are two possibilities. Either we live in a rules-based international order, in which case China would be punished for invading Taiwan. Or we live in a world where power decides outcomes, in which case China would still be punished, this time by the United States, which is arguably still the strongest actor. Unless, of course, you’re suggesting that Trump effectively gave China the green light. Which is not out of the question, but I would find quite surprising.
- Rzor 10mo ago
  >Unless, of course, you’re suggesting that Trump effectively gave China the green light. Which is not out of the question, but I would find quite surprising. There's someone else in this thread suggesting that the quid pro quo was exactly that. My brothers in Christ, I am worried.
- golem14 10mo ago
  With the US being now engaging her Navy in South America more, I am not so sure that America can really match a Blitzkrieg-style invasion, and it is probably not quite able to project enough soft power to get the 'vassal states' to effectively help. So while I am by no means pro-Taiwan invasion, I do believe that there is a very significant downside wrt China with this move. N.B. I'm no military wonk or political strategist, far from it. I just call 'em as i see's 'em.
kshacker 10mo ago
Or maybe it is a message that we have a madman at the top with a finger on the trigger. Do not even try.
ergocoder 10mo ago
China hasn't invaded Taiwan because of US's military power. That is it. It is not worth it at the moment. It is not because US isn't a hypocrite. Come on. How naive do we have to be about it this?
- golem14 10mo ago
  I would have agreed completely yesterday. Today, I just think that the downside just seems much less. I am just not sure how much the political calculus has changed with this move.
budududuroiu 10mo ago
What makes you think China needs a green light lmao? International Law has been dead for years now, might makes right
- ergocoder 10mo ago
  US can easily annihilate Russia. Yet Russia still invades Ukraine. Yet US doesn't do much about it. Hell, Europe can annihilate Russia. Yet they don't do much of anything to Russia. International Law is more like a boy scout code.
TiredOfLife 10mo ago
Did current Taiwan president ignore elections results?
- frankzinger 10mo ago
  Trump himself did much worse in 2020.
  - frankzinger 10mo ago
    Just to clarify: Trump didn't do worse than Maduro (he got stopped) but he did do much worse than "ignore the election results" in that he actively tried to overturn the results.

If this is all true, then China has been pretty much given green light to invade Taiwan, in my opinion.

by golem14 10mo ago

If this is all true, then China has been pretty much given green light to invade Taiwan, in my opinion.

erxam 10mo ago

[flagged]

poszlem 10mo ago

There are two possibilities. Either we live in a rules-based international order, in which case China would be punished for invading Taiwan. Or we live in a world where power decides outcomes, in which case China would still be punished, this time by the United States, which is arguably still the strongest actor. Unless, of course, you’re suggesting that Trump effectively gave China the green light. Which is not out of the question, but I would find quite surprising.

Rzor 10mo ago
>Unless, of course, you’re suggesting that Trump effectively gave China the green light. Which is not out of the question, but I would find quite surprising. There's someone else in this thread suggesting that the quid pro quo was exactly that. My brothers in Christ, I am worried.
golem14 10mo ago
With the US being now engaging her Navy in South America more, I am not so sure that America can really match a Blitzkrieg-style invasion, and it is probably not quite able to project enough soft power to get the 'vassal states' to effectively help. So while I am by no means pro-Taiwan invasion, I do believe that there is a very significant downside wrt China with this move. N.B. I'm no military wonk or political strategist, far from it. I just call 'em as i see's 'em.

kshacker 10mo ago

Or maybe it is a message that we have a madman at the top with a finger on the trigger. Do not even try.

ergocoder 10mo ago

China hasn't invaded Taiwan because of US's military power. That is it. It is not worth it at the moment. It is not because US isn't a hypocrite. Come on. How naive do we have to be about it this?

golem14 10mo ago
I would have agreed completely yesterday. Today, I just think that the downside just seems much less. I am just not sure how much the political calculus has changed with this move.

budududuroiu 10mo ago

What makes you think China needs a green light lmao? International Law has been dead for years now, might makes right

ergocoder 10mo ago
US can easily annihilate Russia. Yet Russia still invades Ukraine. Yet US doesn't do much about it. Hell, Europe can annihilate Russia. Yet they don't do much of anything to Russia. International Law is more like a boy scout code.

TiredOfLife 10mo ago

Did current Taiwan president ignore elections results?

frankzinger 10mo ago
Trump himself did much worse in 2020.
- frankzinger 10mo ago
  Just to clarify: Trump didn't do worse than Maduro (he got stopped) but he did do much worse than "ignore the election results" in that he actively tried to overturn the results.