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You don't think Venezuela having the largest oils reserves on the planet and it being a strong ally to Russia, Iran and China make the possible reward fairly si

You don't think Venezuela having the largest oils reserves on the planet and it being a strong ally to Russia, Iran and China make the possible reward fairly significant from a US standpoint?

estearum 9mo ago
Sure it's conceivable. Can you go a level deeper on your analysis? Are you suggesting that cutting off oil flow to those nations will be advantageous to us? Is this like... tomorrow? During a potential armed conflict? When? By what specific mechanism does the US assert "control" over the oil? POTUS just now said it's via a ground occupation "until transition of power." What's the transition plan?
- mupuff1234 9mo ago
  Not cutting off, but it's enough that the US increases oil supply which lowers the prices to significantly hurt Russia and Iran. And then you have China which is the main consumer of Venezuelan oil so you get another point of leverage. Also probably helps to ensure the petro dollar is here to stay for longer. Obviously this is a very shallow analysis, and there's definitely significant risks, but I do think it's obvious that it has large potential upsides.
  - estearum 9mo ago
    Well... POTUS just said that the plan is to sell large amounts of Venezuelan oil to China and Russia. So again: conceivably sure, but the details matter. The details we have right now do not look very promising IMO.
  - jacquesm 9mo ago
    It's not shallow, it is gullible. Of course Trump has an angle otherwise he wouldn't have done this. We can speculate about what the angle is but there is absolutely no way that he did this for the good of the Venezuelan population. Edit: So, that took only 8 minutes, the other shoe just dropped, it was about the oil after all. Where do I collect my check?
    - mupuff1234 9mo ago
      Oh yeah, I'm certain the intent behind this wasn't for the sake of the Venezuelan population, but that in itself doesn't mean it won't result in a better outcome for the population (but also not saying that it will)
      - stickfigure 9mo ago
        The thing I occasionally say about Trump is: "Even a stopped clock is right twice a day." We ("the opposition") can't get into the frame where we say that everything Trump does is wrong. It's not frequent, but sometimes - yes even for totally wrong reasons - he does things which are probably right. Our identity needs to be more than just "the opposite of what Trump does", otherwise the Trumpists will frame all debates around issues that make us look crazy, rather than the issues that demonstrate blatant grift and criminality. If Maduro is gone, it's a good thing. Let's go back to talking about the clear and obviously terrible things Trump does. Don't let them change the subject.
        estearum 9mo ago
        > If Maduro is gone, it's a good thing. Agree with your overall sentiment but this is just a ridiculous position to hold at this point. History is absolutely full of horrible people being toppled just for more horrible people to take their place. There is literally no evidence whatsoever of a plan for post-Maduro Venezuela. At all! They're either acting completely clueless for the cameras for some unknown reason, or this is very likely going to go really badly.
        stickfigure 9mo ago
        Venezuela has already been going really badly, by nearly any quantitative metric of "how going". This is a country that - a couple decades ago - was a rare success story of democracy and prosperity in Latin America. I think the Venezuelans will work it out, despite Trump's ineptitude.
        9mo ago
  - Loudergood 9mo ago
    In the short term this will likely decrease oil supply and drive up oil revenue for Russia.
    - mupuff1234 9mo ago
      Venezuela supplies less than 1% of the world's oil, basically meaningless.
- qcnguy 9mo ago
  China is heavily dependent on oil imports and a big part of Germany's defeat in WW2 was due to difficulties obtaining oil. This move may - if successful - change the calculation over Taiwan
  - estearum 9mo ago
    POTUS said his plan is to sell vast amounts of Venezuelan oil to China and Russia. So what you say may happen, but not if "it" (being the plan stated by the orchestrator and executor of said move) is successful.
JKCalhoun 9mo ago
"…it being a strong ally to Russia, Iran and China…" You're making a pretty good case for high risk.
- mupuff1234 9mo ago
  You could easily say the same thing about not doing anything. But also remember that Russia is occupied in Ukraine and couldn't even help the Assad regime which was a much closer ally, and same with Iran.
  - cloverich 9mo ago
    i think the argument is Venezuela can help - or hurt - Russia.
    - NicoJuicy 9mo ago
      This is all about China, not Russia
ElectricalUnion 9mo ago
> strong ally to Russia, Iran and China It's more like (similar to other sanctioned countries) "forcibly coerced by the USA into being a ally of Russia, Iran and China by sanctions".

You don't think Venezuela having the largest oils reserves on the planet and it being a strong ally to Russia, Iran and China make the possible reward fairly significant from a US standpoint?

estearum 9mo ago

Sure it's conceivable. Can you go a level deeper on your analysis? Are you suggesting that cutting off oil flow to those nations will be advantageous to us? Is this like... tomorrow? During a potential armed conflict? When? By what specific mechanism does the US assert "control" over the oil? POTUS just now said it's via a ground occupation "until transition of power." What's the transition plan?

mupuff1234 9mo ago
Not cutting off, but it's enough that the US increases oil supply which lowers the prices to significantly hurt Russia and Iran. And then you have China which is the main consumer of Venezuelan oil so you get another point of leverage. Also probably helps to ensure the petro dollar is here to stay for longer. Obviously this is a very shallow analysis, and there's definitely significant risks, but I do think it's obvious that it has large potential upsides.
- estearum 9mo ago
  Well... POTUS just said that the plan is to sell large amounts of Venezuelan oil to China and Russia. So again: conceivably sure, but the details matter. The details we have right now do not look very promising IMO.
- jacquesm 9mo ago
  It's not shallow, it is gullible. Of course Trump has an angle otherwise he wouldn't have done this. We can speculate about what the angle is but there is absolutely no way that he did this for the good of the Venezuelan population. Edit: So, that took only 8 minutes, the other shoe just dropped, it was about the oil after all. Where do I collect my check?
  - mupuff1234 9mo ago
    Oh yeah, I'm certain the intent behind this wasn't for the sake of the Venezuelan population, but that in itself doesn't mean it won't result in a better outcome for the population (but also not saying that it will)
    - stickfigure 9mo ago
      The thing I occasionally say about Trump is: "Even a stopped clock is right twice a day." We ("the opposition") can't get into the frame where we say that everything Trump does is wrong. It's not frequent, but sometimes - yes even for totally wrong reasons - he does things which are probably right. Our identity needs to be more than just "the opposite of what Trump does", otherwise the Trumpists will frame all debates around issues that make us look crazy, rather than the issues that demonstrate blatant grift and criminality. If Maduro is gone, it's a good thing. Let's go back to talking about the clear and obviously terrible things Trump does. Don't let them change the subject.
      - estearum 9mo ago
        > If Maduro is gone, it's a good thing. Agree with your overall sentiment but this is just a ridiculous position to hold at this point. History is absolutely full of horrible people being toppled just for more horrible people to take their place. There is literally no evidence whatsoever of a plan for post-Maduro Venezuela. At all! They're either acting completely clueless for the cameras for some unknown reason, or this is very likely going to go really badly.
        stickfigure 9mo ago
        Venezuela has already been going really badly, by nearly any quantitative metric of "how going". This is a country that - a couple decades ago - was a rare success story of democracy and prosperity in Latin America. I think the Venezuelans will work it out, despite Trump's ineptitude.
        9mo ago
- Loudergood 9mo ago
  In the short term this will likely decrease oil supply and drive up oil revenue for Russia.
  - mupuff1234 9mo ago
    Venezuela supplies less than 1% of the world's oil, basically meaningless.
qcnguy 9mo ago
China is heavily dependent on oil imports and a big part of Germany's defeat in WW2 was due to difficulties obtaining oil. This move may - if successful - change the calculation over Taiwan
- estearum 9mo ago
  POTUS said his plan is to sell vast amounts of Venezuelan oil to China and Russia. So what you say may happen, but not if "it" (being the plan stated by the orchestrator and executor of said move) is successful.

JKCalhoun 9mo ago

"…it being a strong ally to Russia, Iran and China…" You're making a pretty good case for high risk.

mupuff1234 9mo ago
You could easily say the same thing about not doing anything. But also remember that Russia is occupied in Ukraine and couldn't even help the Assad regime which was a much closer ally, and same with Iran.
- cloverich 9mo ago
  i think the argument is Venezuela can help - or hurt - Russia.
  - NicoJuicy 9mo ago
    This is all about China, not Russia

ElectricalUnion 9mo ago

> strong ally to Russia, Iran and China It's more like (similar to other sanctioned countries) "forcibly coerced by the USA into being a ally of Russia, Iran and China by sanctions".