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Here's another prediction: the regime will fall, the invasion will prove breezy and popular among huge fraction of Venezuelans. Trump admin (which was hugely in
by varjag 10mo ago
Here's another prediction: the regime will fall, the invasion will prove breezy and popular among huge fraction of Venezuelans. Trump admin (which was hugely insecure about its actual strength) will be bolstered and do some really really stupid thing next.
- RealityVoid 10mo agoI tend to agree with you. Venezuela is no beacon of freedom or prosperity and I think Maduro might prove even less popular than thought.
- throwaway85825 10mo agoMaduro is very unpopular but a US occupation would be even less popular.
- SideburnsOfDoom 10mo agoThere is always a "rally round the flag" effect, to support the country - the country, not the leader - in the face of a foreign attack. It's not "Support Maduro or support USA". Those are not the options.
- verzali 10mo agoWhen was the last time America successfully conducted a regime change via military force? One that didn't result in a bloody civil war and hundreds of thousands dead?
- keiferski 10mo agoPanama and Grenada probably fit that bill. The question is whether the Venezuelan situation is more like those two, or more like Vietnam / Iraq / Afghanistan.
- SideburnsOfDoom 10mo ago> the regime will fall, the invasion will prove breezy and popular among huge fraction of $CountryInvaded When have we not heard this line? When has it even been true? We always hear it, it's never true.
- varjag 10mo agoYou are free to bookmark this and rub it in my face later.
- SideburnsOfDoom 10mo agoSure, though your prediction of "will prove breezy and popular" is something that takes years, or even a couple of decades to play out. e.g. Afghanistan, Iraq.
- varjag 10mo agoBe serious. Did you really scratch your head for years figuring if it was popular in Afghanistan and Iraq?
- SideburnsOfDoom 10mo agoI am being serious, but I don't know if you are. Look at the long-term outcomes in those countries, how it played out.
- varjag 10mo agoIt develops pretty quick now. If you follow the news you already start to glimpse that I was spot on and it sounds like you try to move the goalposts now. Don't worry tho I'll take the high road.
- SideburnsOfDoom 10mo agoI'll repeat, we don't know the long term outcome yet. Years not hours are what matters. The track record is very poor. > you try to move the goalposts now I do not agree. Long-term outcomes are what matter to the ordinary people in these countries, regardless of what scores points for internet posters today. Guessing outcomes today is very premature. > I was spot on ... I'll take the high road. What a smug and self-contradicting statement. This is no longer a serious conversation, have a good day.