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It would seem pretty obvious the Venezuelan government will shift oil shipments to Russian flagged vessels.

by ggm 10mo ago

toomuchtodo 10mo ago
Do we start sinking Russian flagged tankers in international waters? Preferably unloaded, when possible. Inside China’s Shadow LNG Fleet Offering a Lifeline to Putin - https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2025-china-russia-lng-shadow-fleet/ https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2025-china-russia-lng-sha... | https://archive.today/9dehG https://archive.today/9dehG - December 29th, 2025 A Warning From Onboard the ‘Old Piles of Junk’ Ferrying Russia’s Oil Across the Baltic Sea - https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-russia-shadow-oil-fleet-denmark-baltic-environment/ https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-russia-shadow-oil-fl... | https://archive.today/jpSjX https://archive.today/jpSjX - August 22nd, 2024 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_shadow_fleet https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_shadow_fleet
- bigfatkitten 10mo ago
  They sure didn’t like it when the Germans and Japanese were going around sinking U.S. flagged vessels in the 1940s.
  - toomuchtodo 10mo ago
    It's a long sail for China to do anything about it for Venezuela and Russia, neither of which are in any position to do anything about it. Venezuela in particular will face economic collapse if the US can force further oil well shut ins by maintaining its naval blockade, impairing Venezuela's petroleum revenue stream via exports and longer term production. Tangentially, if shadow fleet capacity is impaired sufficiently to incur the same export capacity reductions in Russia (with an emphasis on Siberia), it could take at least one to two decades for those wells to be brought back online. Venezuela Oil Output Slows 25% in Orinoco Belt Under US Pressure - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-31/venezuela-oil-output-slows-25-in-orinoco-belt-under-us-pressure https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-31/venezuela... | https://archive.today/wUsmE https://archive.today/wUsmE - December 31, 2025 Ghost Busters: Options for Breaking Russia’s Shadow Fleet - https://www.csis.org/analysis/ghost-busters-options-breaking-russias-shadow-fleet https://www.csis.org/analysis/ghost-busters-options-breaking... - December 15th, 2025 How Venezuela’s aging Soviet-era military stacks up against US forces in the Caribbean - https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/13/americas/venezuela-military-us-tensions-explainer-intl-latam https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/13/americas/venezuela-military-u... - November 13th, 2025
- JumpCrisscross 10mo ago
  > Do we start sinking Russian flagged tankers in international waters? Absolutely not. But in cases where the ship was originally identified with faulty registration and is otherwise behaving suspiciously, it’s fair to forcibly board. That said! This will vary based on what’s on that ship. If it’s drone killers, that’s annoying but fine. If it’s anti-ship missiles, that’s putting American sailors at risk.
  - toomuchtodo 10mo ago
    sleepguy’s comment mentions the fact that Russia has converted its shadow fleet from simply a commodity transfer system to a military asset, so while I respect the caution, not only do I agree with drone killers (as Ukraine has been successful with), I think it’s also fine to start sinking these vessels from a safe distance with US military platforms (ideally subs, sufficiently advanced that sailors won’t be at harm against decrepit tankers, but something that can deliver a Tomahawk works as well from a cost efficiency perspective). Someone’s going to run out of rounds first, and it isn’t the US (in this scenario). Don’t seize them, just sink them. They’ll run out of tankers eventually. Alarm over ‘exploding’ rise in use of sanctions-busting shadow fleet - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/dec/21/alarm-over-exploding-rise-in-use-of-sanctions-busting-shadow-fleet https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/dec/21/alarm-over-exp... - December 21st, 2025 Sweden Confirms Armed Guards Aboard Russian Shadow Tankers - https://gcaptain.com/sweden-confirms-armed-guards-aboard-russian-shadow-fleet-tankers-in-baltic-sea/ https://gcaptain.com/sweden-confirms-armed-guards-aboard-rus... - December 16th, 2025
- toomuchtodo 10mo ago
  This appears to be a moot point due to the US assuming control of the country. Trump says Venezuela’s Maduro captured after strikes - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46473348 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46473348 - January 2026

It would seem pretty obvious the Venezuelan government will shift oil shipments to Russian flagged vessels.

by ggm 10mo ago

It would seem pretty obvious the Venezuelan government will shift oil shipments to Russian flagged vessels.

Do we start sinking Russian flagged tankers in international waters? Preferably unloaded, when possible. Inside China’s Shadow LNG Fleet Offering a Lifeline to Putin - https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2025-china-russia-lng-shadow-fleet/ https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2025-china-russia-lng-sha... | https://archive.today/9dehG https://archive.today/9dehG - December 29th, 2025 A Warning From Onboard the ‘Old Piles of Junk’ Ferrying Russia’s Oil Across the Baltic Sea - https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-russia-shadow-oil-fleet-denmark-baltic-environment/ https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-russia-shadow-oil-fl... | https://archive.today/jpSjX https://archive.today/jpSjX - August 22nd, 2024 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_shadow_fleet https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_shadow_fleet

bigfatkitten 10mo ago
They sure didn’t like it when the Germans and Japanese were going around sinking U.S. flagged vessels in the 1940s.
- toomuchtodo 10mo ago
  It's a long sail for China to do anything about it for Venezuela and Russia, neither of which are in any position to do anything about it. Venezuela in particular will face economic collapse if the US can force further oil well shut ins by maintaining its naval blockade, impairing Venezuela's petroleum revenue stream via exports and longer term production. Tangentially, if shadow fleet capacity is impaired sufficiently to incur the same export capacity reductions in Russia (with an emphasis on Siberia), it could take at least one to two decades for those wells to be brought back online. Venezuela Oil Output Slows 25% in Orinoco Belt Under US Pressure - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-31/venezuela-oil-output-slows-25-in-orinoco-belt-under-us-pressure https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-31/venezuela... | https://archive.today/wUsmE https://archive.today/wUsmE - December 31, 2025 Ghost Busters: Options for Breaking Russia’s Shadow Fleet - https://www.csis.org/analysis/ghost-busters-options-breaking-russias-shadow-fleet https://www.csis.org/analysis/ghost-busters-options-breaking... - December 15th, 2025 How Venezuela’s aging Soviet-era military stacks up against US forces in the Caribbean - https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/13/americas/venezuela-military-us-tensions-explainer-intl-latam https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/13/americas/venezuela-military-u... - November 13th, 2025
JumpCrisscross 10mo ago
> Do we start sinking Russian flagged tankers in international waters? Absolutely not. But in cases where the ship was originally identified with faulty registration and is otherwise behaving suspiciously, it’s fair to forcibly board. That said! This will vary based on what’s on that ship. If it’s drone killers, that’s annoying but fine. If it’s anti-ship missiles, that’s putting American sailors at risk.
- toomuchtodo 10mo ago
  sleepguy’s comment mentions the fact that Russia has converted its shadow fleet from simply a commodity transfer system to a military asset, so while I respect the caution, not only do I agree with drone killers (as Ukraine has been successful with), I think it’s also fine to start sinking these vessels from a safe distance with US military platforms (ideally subs, sufficiently advanced that sailors won’t be at harm against decrepit tankers, but something that can deliver a Tomahawk works as well from a cost efficiency perspective). Someone’s going to run out of rounds first, and it isn’t the US (in this scenario). Don’t seize them, just sink them. They’ll run out of tankers eventually. Alarm over ‘exploding’ rise in use of sanctions-busting shadow fleet - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/dec/21/alarm-over-exploding-rise-in-use-of-sanctions-busting-shadow-fleet https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/dec/21/alarm-over-exp... - December 21st, 2025 Sweden Confirms Armed Guards Aboard Russian Shadow Tankers - https://gcaptain.com/sweden-confirms-armed-guards-aboard-russian-shadow-fleet-tankers-in-baltic-sea/ https://gcaptain.com/sweden-confirms-armed-guards-aboard-rus... - December 16th, 2025
toomuchtodo 10mo ago
This appears to be a moot point due to the US assuming control of the country. Trump says Venezuela’s Maduro captured after strikes - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46473348 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46473348 - January 2026