3 ms·

In the language of the moment AI means LLMS. The answer there is “never” If you say autopilot that implies a wildly different technology. I think the first suc

by tim-tday 10mo ago

In the language of the moment AI means LLMS. The answer there is “never” If you say autopilot that implies a wildly different technology. I think the first successful autopilot landing with passengers onboard happened last week. Taking off is much easier than landing and if passengers aren’t involved… I guess the question is not about technology (might be ready now) and is instead about regulation (when will the FAA allow fully autonomous flights). I’m guessing the current generation of regulators will need to die before that happens so 25+ years.

rkomorn 10mo ago
> I think the first successful autopilot landing with passengers onboard happened last week. What definition are you using for "autopilot landing" here? Autopilots have been able to land planes for quite some time. Conversely, autopilots still can't handle takeoff (though the more modern airliners have significantly more takeoff automation than before).
- nrhrjrjrjtntbt 10mo ago
  Is autopilot takeoff a hard problem, or is there just little incentive to do it? I.e. if takeoff is dangerous you dont do it. Making takeoff generslly easier. The option to not land doesnt exist (insert old joke about a good landing)! So landing may have harder problems like wind sheer, thunder storms, tailwind, visibility, and more incentive to take load off pilots with automation.
  - rkomorn 10mo ago
    I agree about incentive (with a small asterisk that if you do decide to take off when you shouldn't, now you have two problems), but taking off isn't particularly easier. Eg you have to stay on the runway, you have decisions to make about whether to reject takeoff (the asterisk I mentioned earlier), etc. For a computer, I'd say it's 6 of one, half a dozen of the other. For runway equipment (ie ILS), it probably changes enough that you couldn't "just use ILS" for takeoff. I did infra work for a team that was contributing to Airbus' ATTOL (automated taxi, takeoff, and landing) project a few years ago. They (the ATTOL folks, not the side I was on) did do an automated takeoff demo and it definitely wasn't simple.
- andyjohnson0 10mo ago
  Possibly a reference to the recent event described here: https://fallows.substack.com/p/a-positive-sign-for-flying-in-the https://fallows.substack.com/p/a-positive-sign-for-flying-in... tl/dr: The aircraft detected pilot incapacitation and landed on its own initiative.
  - rkomorn 10mo ago
    That's what I figured yeah, though that's GA, not cargo planes, and emergency rather than normal operations. Lots of differences.
bruce511 10mo ago
Takeoffs are substantially more hazardous than landing. The margin for error is small, and the options for handling the unexpected are minimal. To be clear, take-off is more than just the runway. It extends to the point where the aircraft has sufficient energy, which can be translated into time. Flying a plane is all about energy. Speed, and altitude. One can be traded for another and both can be traded for time. In other words, the faster the plane, the higher the plane, the more options available to the pilot. The most dangerous part of the flight is the initial climb just after takeoff. Speed is low. Height is very low. You are literally flying away from the runway. If an engine or 2 fail at this point crashing is a likely outcome. However how, and where, you crash matters a lot. By contrast landings are much safer, the airplane has excess energy to play with, and is heading directly at a nice long flat piece of ground. Auto-pilot takeoffs are "easy" only to the V2 mark, then they can get very complicated very quickly.

rkomorn 10mo ago

> I think the first successful autopilot landing with passengers onboard happened last week. What definition are you using for "autopilot landing" here? Autopilots have been able to land planes for quite some time. Conversely, autopilots still can't handle takeoff (though the more modern airliners have significantly more takeoff automation than before).

nrhrjrjrjtntbt 10mo ago
Is autopilot takeoff a hard problem, or is there just little incentive to do it? I.e. if takeoff is dangerous you dont do it. Making takeoff generslly easier. The option to not land doesnt exist (insert old joke about a good landing)! So landing may have harder problems like wind sheer, thunder storms, tailwind, visibility, and more incentive to take load off pilots with automation.
- rkomorn 10mo ago
  I agree about incentive (with a small asterisk that if you do decide to take off when you shouldn't, now you have two problems), but taking off isn't particularly easier. Eg you have to stay on the runway, you have decisions to make about whether to reject takeoff (the asterisk I mentioned earlier), etc. For a computer, I'd say it's 6 of one, half a dozen of the other. For runway equipment (ie ILS), it probably changes enough that you couldn't "just use ILS" for takeoff. I did infra work for a team that was contributing to Airbus' ATTOL (automated taxi, takeoff, and landing) project a few years ago. They (the ATTOL folks, not the side I was on) did do an automated takeoff demo and it definitely wasn't simple.
andyjohnson0 10mo ago
Possibly a reference to the recent event described here: https://fallows.substack.com/p/a-positive-sign-for-flying-in-the https://fallows.substack.com/p/a-positive-sign-for-flying-in... tl/dr: The aircraft detected pilot incapacitation and landed on its own initiative.
- rkomorn 10mo ago
  That's what I figured yeah, though that's GA, not cargo planes, and emergency rather than normal operations. Lots of differences.

bruce511 10mo ago

Takeoffs are substantially more hazardous than landing. The margin for error is small, and the options for handling the unexpected are minimal. To be clear, take-off is more than just the runway. It extends to the point where the aircraft has sufficient energy, which can be translated into time. Flying a plane is all about energy. Speed, and altitude. One can be traded for another and both can be traded for time. In other words, the faster the plane, the higher the plane, the more options available to the pilot. The most dangerous part of the flight is the initial climb just after takeoff. Speed is low. Height is very low. You are literally flying away from the runway. If an engine or 2 fail at this point crashing is a likely outcome. However how, and where, you crash matters a lot. By contrast landings are much safer, the airplane has excess energy to play with, and is heading directly at a nice long flat piece of ground. Auto-pilot takeoffs are "easy" only to the V2 mark, then they can get very complicated very quickly.