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If they lower rates too much, they will have a problem finding buyers for Treasuries, so they are somewhat constrained. We’re not living in the pre-Covid era an
by iamnothere 10mo ago
If they lower rates too much, they will have a problem finding buyers for Treasuries, so they are somewhat constrained. We’re not living in the pre-Covid era anymore, and people have better options than low % US Treasuries. The only way I can imagine ZIRP again is if a deflationary crash were about to hit. That might happen (eventually it will happen) but I am not foolish enough to bet on the timing.
The awkward US system is fairly robust against hyperinflation because the government can’t just print money directly. The one option for doing this, minting a “trillion dollar coin” and depositing it with the Treasury, is extremely risky because of the potential impact on normal Treasury funding. I would only expect this as a last resort when the economy is already heading towards disaster.
I suspect that true hyperinflation is an artifact of nations with wrecked economies trying to sustain themselves on fiat. Once you reach that point it’s already too late, so hyperinflation is a symptom, not the cause. In effect it’s a default on debts and a collapse of the monetary system.