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Google’s moat: Try “@gmail” in Gemini Google’s surface area to apply AI is larger than any other company’s. And they have arguably the best multimodal model a

Google’s moat: Try “@gmail” in Gemini Google’s surface area to apply AI is larger than any other company’s. And they have arguably the best multimodal model and indisputably the best flash model?

avalys 10mo ago
If the “moat” is not AI technology itself but merely sufficient other lines of business to deploy it well, then that’s further evidence that venture investments in AI startups will yield very poor returns.
- tjwebbnorfolk 10mo ago
  It's funny that a decade ago the exit strategy of many of these startups would have been to get acquired by MSFT / META / GOOG. Now, the regulators have made a lot of these acquisitions effectively impossible for antitrust reasons. Is it better for society for promising startups to die on the open market, or get acquired by a monopoly? The third option -- taking down the established players -- appears increasingly unlikely.
  - maeln 10mo ago
    > Now, the regulators have made a lot of these acquisitions effectively impossible for antitrust reasons. Is there any evidence that this is the case ? For very big merger (like nvdia and Arm tried) sure, but I can't think of a single time regulator stop a big player from buying a start up.
    - tjwebbnorfolk 10mo ago
      I'm sure you realize you're asking me to prove a negative? I don't have the ability to prove to you that something didn't happen or why. What I know is that a lot of deals aren't even being considered that once were, and antitrust is a huge factor in that consideration.
  - shimman 9mo ago
    There's no evidence that any of those startups are better for society, in fact most of them have directly led to worse economic inequality (uber, airbnb) and exacerbating climate change (LLM insanity). If anything the current system is beyond redemption and should probably be nationalized for the betterment of society. Government investment in technology brought us the transistor and internet, the two things that enabled any of this to exist and it was massively subsidized for the betterment of the public. Maybe we should follow that model again.
edaemon 10mo ago
That kind of makes it sound like AI is a feature and not a product, which supports avalys' point.
dartharva 10mo ago
Also, Google doesn't have to finance Gemini using venture capital or debt, it can use its own money.
- latentsea 10mo ago
  DeepMind also solved the protein folding problem, so they have that going for them.
  - johnisgood 10mo ago
    Did it really? That is actually huge if so.
venusenvy47 10mo ago
I tried it, but nothing happened. It said that it sent an email but didn't. What is supposed to happen?
onion2k 10mo ago
Try “@gmail” in Gemini I think this is a problem for Google. Most users aren't going to do that unless they're told it's possible. 99% of users are working to a mental model of AI that they learned when they first encountered ChatGPT - the idea that AI is a separate app, that they can talk to and prompt to get outputs, and that's it. They're probably starting to learn that they can select models, and use different modes, but the idea of connecting to other apps isn't something they've grokked yet (and they won't until it's very obvious). What people see as the featureset of AI is what OpenAI is delivering, not Google. Google are going to struggle to leverage their position as custodians of everyone's data if they can't get users to break out of that way of thinking. And honestly, right now, Google are delivering lots of disparate AI interfaces (Gemini, Opal, Nano Banana, etc) which isn't really teaching users that it's all just facets of the same system.
- troupo 10mo ago
  > I think this is a problem for Google. Most users aren't going to do that unless they're told it's possible. Google is telling this in about a hundred different popups and inline hints when you use any of its products
  - onion2k 10mo ago
    I've use the Gemini app on my phone a fair bit recently and I've not seen it. That said, I don't think I've seen any popups either. Maybe I've blocked them...
  - mikkupikku 10mo ago
    Users are trained to close those without reading.
- dbbk 10mo ago
  Gemini can't even create a Google Doc if you prompt it to.

avalys 10mo ago

If the “moat” is not AI technology itself but merely sufficient other lines of business to deploy it well, then that’s further evidence that venture investments in AI startups will yield very poor returns.

tjwebbnorfolk 10mo ago
It's funny that a decade ago the exit strategy of many of these startups would have been to get acquired by MSFT / META / GOOG. Now, the regulators have made a lot of these acquisitions effectively impossible for antitrust reasons. Is it better for society for promising startups to die on the open market, or get acquired by a monopoly? The third option -- taking down the established players -- appears increasingly unlikely.
- maeln 10mo ago
  > Now, the regulators have made a lot of these acquisitions effectively impossible for antitrust reasons. Is there any evidence that this is the case ? For very big merger (like nvdia and Arm tried) sure, but I can't think of a single time regulator stop a big player from buying a start up.
  - tjwebbnorfolk 10mo ago
    I'm sure you realize you're asking me to prove a negative? I don't have the ability to prove to you that something didn't happen or why. What I know is that a lot of deals aren't even being considered that once were, and antitrust is a huge factor in that consideration.
- shimman 9mo ago
  There's no evidence that any of those startups are better for society, in fact most of them have directly led to worse economic inequality (uber, airbnb) and exacerbating climate change (LLM insanity). If anything the current system is beyond redemption and should probably be nationalized for the betterment of society. Government investment in technology brought us the transistor and internet, the two things that enabled any of this to exist and it was massively subsidized for the betterment of the public. Maybe we should follow that model again.

edaemon 10mo ago

That kind of makes it sound like AI is a feature and not a product, which supports avalys' point.

dartharva 10mo ago

Also, Google doesn't have to finance Gemini using venture capital or debt, it can use its own money.

latentsea 10mo ago
DeepMind also solved the protein folding problem, so they have that going for them.
- johnisgood 10mo ago
  Did it really? That is actually huge if so.

venusenvy47 10mo ago

I tried it, but nothing happened. It said that it sent an email but didn't. What is supposed to happen?

onion2k 10mo ago

Try “@gmail” in Gemini I think this is a problem for Google. Most users aren't going to do that unless they're told it's possible. 99% of users are working to a mental model of AI that they learned when they first encountered ChatGPT - the idea that AI is a separate app, that they can talk to and prompt to get outputs, and that's it. They're probably starting to learn that they can select models, and use different modes, but the idea of connecting to other apps isn't something they've grokked yet (and they won't until it's very obvious). What people see as the featureset of AI is what OpenAI is delivering, not Google. Google are going to struggle to leverage their position as custodians of everyone's data if they can't get users to break out of that way of thinking. And honestly, right now, Google are delivering lots of disparate AI interfaces (Gemini, Opal, Nano Banana, etc) which isn't really teaching users that it's all just facets of the same system.

troupo 10mo ago
> I think this is a problem for Google. Most users aren't going to do that unless they're told it's possible. Google is telling this in about a hundred different popups and inline hints when you use any of its products
- onion2k 10mo ago
  I've use the Gemini app on my phone a fair bit recently and I've not seen it. That said, I don't think I've seen any popups either. Maybe I've blocked them...
- mikkupikku 10mo ago
  Users are trained to close those without reading.
dbbk 10mo ago
Gemini can't even create a Google Doc if you prompt it to.