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I have yet to be convinced the broader population has an appetite for AI produced cinematography or videos. Independence from Nvidia is no more of a liability t

by nateb2022 10mo ago

I have yet to be convinced the broader population has an appetite for AI produced cinematography or videos. Independence from Nvidia is no more of a liability than dependence on electricity rates; it's not as if it's in Nvidia's interest to see one of its large customers fail. And pretty much any of the other Mag7 companies are capable of developing in-house TPUs + are already independently profitable, so Google isn't alone here.

fooblaster 10mo ago
If you think they are going to catch up with Google's software and hardware ecosystem on their first chip, you may be underestimating how hard this is. Google is on TPU v7. meta has already tried with MTIA v1 and v2. those haven't been deployed at scale for inference.
- nateb2022 10mo ago
  I don't think many of them will want to, though. I think as long as Nvidia/AMD/other hardware providers offer inference hardware at prices decent enough to not justify building a chip in-house, most companies won't. Some of them will probably experiment, although that will look more like a small team of researchers + a moderate budget rather than a burn-the-ships we're going to use only our own hardware approach.
  - fooblaster 10mo ago
    Well, anthropic just purchased a million TPUs from Google because even with a healthy margin from Google, it's far more cost effective because of Nvidia's insane markup. That speaks for itself. Nvidia will not drop their margin because it will tank their stock price. it's half of the reason for all this circular financing - lowering their effective margin without lowering it on paper.
    - fragmede 10mo ago
      And, don't forget everyone's buying from TSMC in every case!
Seattle3503 10mo ago
The video data is probably good for training models, including text models.
margalabargala 10mo ago
It's in Nvidia's interest to charge the absolute maximum they can without their customers failing. Every dollar of Nvidia's margin is your own lost margin. Utilities don't do that. Nvidia is objectively a way bigger liability than electricity rates.
- bdangubic 10mo ago
  it is in every business’s best interest to charge the maximum…
  - wrs 10mo ago
    Utilities and insurance companies are two examples of business regulated to not charge the maximum, for public policy reasons.
    - bdangubic 10mo ago
      we suggesting that nvidia/google/.. be regulated for like utilities?
      - margalabargala 10mo ago
        [flagged]
        AnonHP 10mo ago
        Not GP and haven’t participated in this thread. I’m clueless on what the point in your earlier comment is. Can you elaborate, please?
        margalabargala 10mo ago
        I can try. Which part is confusing to you, the "nvidia will charge as much as it can" part or the "utilities won't" part?
      - 10mo ago
ralph84 10mo ago
The value of YouTube for AI isn't making AI videos, it's that it's an incredibly rich source for humanity's current knowledge in one place. All of the tutorials, lectures, news reports, etc. are great for training models.
- Nextgrid 10mo ago
  Is that actually a moat? Seems like all model providers managed to scrape the entire textual internet just fine. If video is the next big thing I don’t see why they won’t scrape that too.
  - monocasa 10mo ago
    And we're probably already starting to see that, given the semirecent escalations in game of cat and also cat of youtube and the likes of youtube-dl. Reminds me of Reddit's cracking down on API access after realizing that their data was useful. But I'd expect both youtube to be quicker on the gun knowing about AI data collection, and have more time because of the orders of magnitude greater bandwidth required to scrape video.
    - deleted 10mo ago
      [deleted]
    - jakeydus 10mo ago
      And reddit turned around and sold it all for a mess of pottage…
      - satvikpendem 10mo ago
        Sold being the operative word, rather than giving it away for free.
        monocasa 10mo ago
        Well, it is available for free either way. They pissed off their user base all for a horse that had already left the stable. https://academictorrents.com/details/2d056b22743718ac81915f25b094b6226668663f https://academictorrents.com/details/2d056b22743718ac81915f2...
why-o-why 10mo ago
Given the fact that Apple and Coke but rushed to produce AI slop, and the agreements with Disney, we are going to see a metric fuck-ton of AI-generated cinema in the next decade. The broader population's tastes are absolute harbage when it comes to cinema, so I don't see why you need convincing. 40+ superhero films should be enough.
Ekaros 10mo ago
I think it will be accepted by broader population. But if generation is easy and cheap I wonder if there is demand. And I mean as total demand in the segment. Will there be enough impressions to go around to actually profit from the content. Especially if storage is also considered.

fooblaster 10mo ago

If you think they are going to catch up with Google's software and hardware ecosystem on their first chip, you may be underestimating how hard this is. Google is on TPU v7. meta has already tried with MTIA v1 and v2. those haven't been deployed at scale for inference.

nateb2022 10mo ago
I don't think many of them will want to, though. I think as long as Nvidia/AMD/other hardware providers offer inference hardware at prices decent enough to not justify building a chip in-house, most companies won't. Some of them will probably experiment, although that will look more like a small team of researchers + a moderate budget rather than a burn-the-ships we're going to use only our own hardware approach.
- fooblaster 10mo ago
  Well, anthropic just purchased a million TPUs from Google because even with a healthy margin from Google, it's far more cost effective because of Nvidia's insane markup. That speaks for itself. Nvidia will not drop their margin because it will tank their stock price. it's half of the reason for all this circular financing - lowering their effective margin without lowering it on paper.
  - fragmede 10mo ago
    And, don't forget everyone's buying from TSMC in every case!

Seattle3503 10mo ago

The video data is probably good for training models, including text models.

margalabargala 10mo ago

It's in Nvidia's interest to charge the absolute maximum they can without their customers failing. Every dollar of Nvidia's margin is your own lost margin. Utilities don't do that. Nvidia is objectively a way bigger liability than electricity rates.

bdangubic 10mo ago
it is in every business’s best interest to charge the maximum…
- wrs 10mo ago
  Utilities and insurance companies are two examples of business regulated to not charge the maximum, for public policy reasons.
  - bdangubic 10mo ago
    we suggesting that nvidia/google/.. be regulated for like utilities?
    - margalabargala 10mo ago
      [flagged]
      - AnonHP 10mo ago
        Not GP and haven’t participated in this thread. I’m clueless on what the point in your earlier comment is. Can you elaborate, please?
        margalabargala 10mo ago
        I can try. Which part is confusing to you, the "nvidia will charge as much as it can" part or the "utilities won't" part?
    - 10mo ago

ralph84 10mo ago

The value of YouTube for AI isn't making AI videos, it's that it's an incredibly rich source for humanity's current knowledge in one place. All of the tutorials, lectures, news reports, etc. are great for training models.

Nextgrid 10mo ago
Is that actually a moat? Seems like all model providers managed to scrape the entire textual internet just fine. If video is the next big thing I don’t see why they won’t scrape that too.
- monocasa 10mo ago
  And we're probably already starting to see that, given the semirecent escalations in game of cat and also cat of youtube and the likes of youtube-dl. Reminds me of Reddit's cracking down on API access after realizing that their data was useful. But I'd expect both youtube to be quicker on the gun knowing about AI data collection, and have more time because of the orders of magnitude greater bandwidth required to scrape video.
  - deleted 10mo ago
    [deleted]
  - jakeydus 10mo ago
    And reddit turned around and sold it all for a mess of pottage…
    - satvikpendem 10mo ago
      Sold being the operative word, rather than giving it away for free.
      - monocasa 10mo ago
        Well, it is available for free either way. They pissed off their user base all for a horse that had already left the stable. https://academictorrents.com/details/2d056b22743718ac81915f25b094b6226668663f https://academictorrents.com/details/2d056b22743718ac81915f2...

why-o-why 10mo ago

Given the fact that Apple and Coke but rushed to produce AI slop, and the agreements with Disney, we are going to see a metric fuck-ton of AI-generated cinema in the next decade. The broader population's tastes are absolute harbage when it comes to cinema, so I don't see why you need convincing. 40+ superhero films should be enough.

Ekaros 10mo ago

I think it will be accepted by broader population. But if generation is easy and cheap I wonder if there is demand. And I mean as total demand in the segment. Will there be enough impressions to go around to actually profit from the content. Especially if storage is also considered.