4 ms·

If/when the AI bubble pops and we're left with hundreds of underutilized datacenters, I think this could be good for hosting customers by driving prices down ac

by gtirloni 10mo ago

If/when the AI bubble pops and we're left with hundreds of underutilized datacenters, I think this could be good for hosting customers by driving prices down across the board. Maybe it will make self-hosting even more cheaper than public clouds.

stetrain 10mo ago
Aren't these datacenters biased majorly towards GPU capacity? Maybe we'll see a resurgence of cloud game streaming initiatives.
- piva00 10mo ago
  The GPUs being used for AI training aren't useful for running games, I highly doubt they could be repurposed for that. They can run other ML stuff but I don't see how the world could absorb the amount of compute/RAM for these other workflows. Since the hardware itself depreciates quite fast compared to the buildings, the long lasting physical structure is probably the best bet, being repurposed for more general computing (since all HVAC, electricity, and other expensive infrastructure is already in place).
nba456_ 10mo ago
The best indication that this isn't a bubble is all the people who would jump at the chance to buy more capacity if the price drops even a little.
- gtirloni 10mo ago
  Only if they were buying GPU capacity.
MangoToupe 10mo ago
I'm sure this will be a nice consolation as the meaningful part of the economy collapses
- 999900000999 10mo ago
  I was more thinking these data centers will become homeless shelters.
impossiblefork 10mo ago
I think the interesting thing would be if something like Euclyd is successful, and the 10 GW become 100 MW, and the giant server halls become 800 cabinets total. Then the inference mega datacentre investment becomes a losing proposition for those who paid too much for the wrong kind of computers, but AI users still get more compute, lower prices etc.
yesco 10mo ago
Don't these data centers have pretty elaborate cooling setups that use large volumes of water? So they're sitting on real estate with access to massive amounts of water, electricity, and high bandwidth network connections. Seems like that combination of resources could be useful for a lot of other things beyond just data centers. Like you could probably run desalination plants, large scale hydroponic farms, semiconductor manufacturing, or chemical processing facilities. Anything that needs the trifecta of heavy power, water infrastructure, and fiber connectivity could slot right in.
- Imustaskforhelp 10mo ago
  Semiconductor manufacturing might make sense here but I also don't think it might not simply because it would require probably a lot of expertise and knowledge and complex machinery with experience in this industry which I assume would be very hard to gather even for these datacenters. I don't see any reasonable path moving forward for these datacenters for the amount of money that they have invested.
  - sevensor 10mo ago
    Semiconductor manufacturing needs supply chain a lot more than it needs fast internet. Wafers, fine chemicals, gases, consumable parts. A lot of this comes from petroleum refining, so it helps to be near a lot of refineries, although not enough to be decisive in site selection.
    - Imustaskforhelp 10mo ago
      Agreed. Your point is true and as such too I don't really think that they could really be used for semiconductor industry. And all other industries also don't really seem to me to have any overlap with the datacenter industry as much aside from having water access and land and electricity but like I doubt that they would get used enough to be justified their costs, especially the costs of the overpriced GPU's and ram and other components In my opinion, These large datacenters are usually a lost cause if the AI bubble bursts since they were created with such a strong focus of GPU's and other things and their whole model of demand is related to AI If the bubble bursts, I think that auctioning server hardware might happen but I doubt how much of that would be non-gpu / pure compute related servers or perhaps gpu but good for the average consumer.
Imustaskforhelp 10mo ago
I think it will also allow later down the board for more competition down the line for the hardware 3-5 years down the line. But I don't really think that focusing on GPU market is gonna work as I don't really see much reason to cater to GPU intensive workloads unless you are affiliated with AI (for most part, some GPU compute is good but datacenters shouldn't really invest so much in GPU compute) I feel like I am more optimistic about buying stuff (preferably compute) 3-5 years down the board when things might become cheap in my opinion But this is still a very long time. On one hand I want Ai bubble to burst asap to lessen the impacts of financial crisis but on the other I really think about the financial crisis and think if there are any ways to mitigate the economy's loss so that it doesn't become 2008 crisis But reality to me feels as if the chances of Bubble popping up is inevitable, the only question is if we can do anything to lessen the strain on the average person all around the world. I think America will be impacted the most but I wonder how geo-politically this might impact other countries as compared to the 2008 crisis. I don't really think the american govt. is doing anything to lessen the strain the bubble can cause tho, perhaps even promoting things like stargate/AI bubble itself. It's just sad for 3-4 years. Lets hope economy gets better and more reasonable than AI hype
adityaathalye 10mo ago
I feel the same way... Posted this yesterday: After "AI": Anticipating a post-LLM science and technology revolution (evalapply.org) 2 points by adityaathalye 1 day ago | 8 comments https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46419416 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46419416 https://www.evalapply.org/posts/after-ai/index.html https://www.evalapply.org/posts/after-ai/index.html > I, for one, welcome the coming age of the post-LLM-datacenter-overinvestment-bust-fueled backyard GPU supercomputer revolution.
brightball 10mo ago
The overlap between the datacenter needs of AI and those of crypto are hard to miss. If/when the AI bubble pops I'd be willing to bet that we see another crypto surge. I can't be the only one who's noticed that the volume of crypto stuff being pushed slowed as the AI fervor ramped up?
- Ekaros 10mo ago
  I wouldn't be sure. I think just like AI the crypto has been there due to excess liquidity. Thus when "wealth" gets cancelled the crypto will follow with it. I believe it will go down with rest of the markets.
- joquarky 10mo ago
  I'm not seeing it. If crypto has a resurgence, it will only be because wealthy people invest in it to enable shady behavior.

stetrain 10mo ago

Aren't these datacenters biased majorly towards GPU capacity? Maybe we'll see a resurgence of cloud game streaming initiatives.

piva00 10mo ago
The GPUs being used for AI training aren't useful for running games, I highly doubt they could be repurposed for that. They can run other ML stuff but I don't see how the world could absorb the amount of compute/RAM for these other workflows. Since the hardware itself depreciates quite fast compared to the buildings, the long lasting physical structure is probably the best bet, being repurposed for more general computing (since all HVAC, electricity, and other expensive infrastructure is already in place).

nba456_ 10mo ago

The best indication that this isn't a bubble is all the people who would jump at the chance to buy more capacity if the price drops even a little.

gtirloni 10mo ago
Only if they were buying GPU capacity.

MangoToupe 10mo ago

I'm sure this will be a nice consolation as the meaningful part of the economy collapses

999900000999 10mo ago
I was more thinking these data centers will become homeless shelters.

impossiblefork 10mo ago

I think the interesting thing would be if something like Euclyd is successful, and the 10 GW become 100 MW, and the giant server halls become 800 cabinets total. Then the inference mega datacentre investment becomes a losing proposition for those who paid too much for the wrong kind of computers, but AI users still get more compute, lower prices etc.

yesco 10mo ago

Don't these data centers have pretty elaborate cooling setups that use large volumes of water? So they're sitting on real estate with access to massive amounts of water, electricity, and high bandwidth network connections. Seems like that combination of resources could be useful for a lot of other things beyond just data centers. Like you could probably run desalination plants, large scale hydroponic farms, semiconductor manufacturing, or chemical processing facilities. Anything that needs the trifecta of heavy power, water infrastructure, and fiber connectivity could slot right in.

Imustaskforhelp 10mo ago
Semiconductor manufacturing might make sense here but I also don't think it might not simply because it would require probably a lot of expertise and knowledge and complex machinery with experience in this industry which I assume would be very hard to gather even for these datacenters. I don't see any reasonable path moving forward for these datacenters for the amount of money that they have invested.
- sevensor 10mo ago
  Semiconductor manufacturing needs supply chain a lot more than it needs fast internet. Wafers, fine chemicals, gases, consumable parts. A lot of this comes from petroleum refining, so it helps to be near a lot of refineries, although not enough to be decisive in site selection.
  - Imustaskforhelp 10mo ago
    Agreed. Your point is true and as such too I don't really think that they could really be used for semiconductor industry. And all other industries also don't really seem to me to have any overlap with the datacenter industry as much aside from having water access and land and electricity but like I doubt that they would get used enough to be justified their costs, especially the costs of the overpriced GPU's and ram and other components In my opinion, These large datacenters are usually a lost cause if the AI bubble bursts since they were created with such a strong focus of GPU's and other things and their whole model of demand is related to AI If the bubble bursts, I think that auctioning server hardware might happen but I doubt how much of that would be non-gpu / pure compute related servers or perhaps gpu but good for the average consumer.

Imustaskforhelp 10mo ago

I think it will also allow later down the board for more competition down the line for the hardware 3-5 years down the line. But I don't really think that focusing on GPU market is gonna work as I don't really see much reason to cater to GPU intensive workloads unless you are affiliated with AI (for most part, some GPU compute is good but datacenters shouldn't really invest so much in GPU compute) I feel like I am more optimistic about buying stuff (preferably compute) 3-5 years down the board when things might become cheap in my opinion But this is still a very long time. On one hand I want Ai bubble to burst asap to lessen the impacts of financial crisis but on the other I really think about the financial crisis and think if there are any ways to mitigate the economy's loss so that it doesn't become 2008 crisis But reality to me feels as if the chances of Bubble popping up is inevitable, the only question is if we can do anything to lessen the strain on the average person all around the world. I think America will be impacted the most but I wonder how geo-politically this might impact other countries as compared to the 2008 crisis. I don't really think the american govt. is doing anything to lessen the strain the bubble can cause tho, perhaps even promoting things like stargate/AI bubble itself. It's just sad for 3-4 years. Lets hope economy gets better and more reasonable than AI hype

adityaathalye 10mo ago

I feel the same way... Posted this yesterday: After "AI": Anticipating a post-LLM science and technology revolution (evalapply.org) 2 points by adityaathalye 1 day ago | 8 comments https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46419416 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46419416 https://www.evalapply.org/posts/after-ai/index.html https://www.evalapply.org/posts/after-ai/index.html > I, for one, welcome the coming age of the post-LLM-datacenter-overinvestment-bust-fueled backyard GPU supercomputer revolution.

brightball 10mo ago

The overlap between the datacenter needs of AI and those of crypto are hard to miss. If/when the AI bubble pops I'd be willing to bet that we see another crypto surge. I can't be the only one who's noticed that the volume of crypto stuff being pushed slowed as the AI fervor ramped up?

Ekaros 10mo ago
I wouldn't be sure. I think just like AI the crypto has been there due to excess liquidity. Thus when "wealth" gets cancelled the crypto will follow with it. I believe it will go down with rest of the markets.
joquarky 10mo ago
I'm not seeing it. If crypto has a resurgence, it will only be because wealthy people invest in it to enable shady behavior.