3 ms·
>But that's exactly the promise of LLMs by the hypepeople behind it. I do not know and do not care what the "hypepeople" say. I can tell you that, by pure logi
by constantcrying 9mo ago
>But that's exactly the promise of LLMs by the hypepeople behind it.
I do not know and do not care what the "hypepeople" say. I can tell you that, by pure logic alone, LLMs will be superior at simple and routine tasks sooner, which means they will compete with outsourced labor first.
LLMs need to be measured against their competition and their competition right now is outsourced labor. If an LLM can outperform an offshore team at a fraction of the cost, why would any company choose the offshore team? Especially when the LLM eliminates some of the biggest problems with offshore teams (communication barriers, round trip times).
If LLMs take any programmer jobs they will at the very beginning make those outsourced jobs obsolete, so the only relevant question is whether they have done that or are in the process of doing so. If they don't, then their impact will be minimal, if they do, then their impact will be massive. I think that this line of thinking is a far better benchmark then asking whether an LLM gets X or Y question wrong Z% of the time.
- kvemkon 9mo ago> If an LLM can outperform an offshore team at a fraction of the cost,.. And "a few moments later" happens the same as with those "cost effective" clouds. [1] https://www.heise.de/en/news/IDC-Many-companies-want-partly-out-of-the-cloud-10001934.html https://www.heise.de/en/news/IDC-Many-companies-want-partly-... [2] https://www.idc.com/resource-center/blog/storm-clouds-ahead-missed-expectations-in-cloud-computing/ https://www.idc.com/resource-center/blog/storm-clouds-ahead-... (original)
- andrekandre 9mo agoin the end, it all comes down to roi; if spending x dollars a month brings in an additional 5x revenue then its gonna be worth? then again, i have some suspicion that alot of consumer-focused end products using llms in the backend (hello chatbots) expecting big returns for all those tokens spent may have some bad news coming... if the bubble starts popping i'm guessing it starts there...
- baq 9mo agoOutsourced devs wielding smart models are even cheaper than onshore and the models lift all boats wrt capability. The bottleneck will soon be ideas for the things to build.
- constantcrying 9mo ago>Outsourced devs wielding smart models are even cheaper than onshore But they do not compete. They have totally different jobs.
- shafyy 9mo ago> The bottleneck will soon be ideas for the things to build No, it won't. The utility of LLMs is already growing asymptotically now...