4 ms·

Tesla is probably the only EV maker with declining sales for the last two years. Quite a feat in a booming market, and remarkable considering that the stock alr

by fsh 9mo ago

Tesla is probably the only EV maker with declining sales for the last two years. Quite a feat in a booming market, and remarkable considering that the stock already has a few orders of magnitude of growth priced in.

renewiltord 9mo ago
The declining sales is a concern. Was curious though so I looked it up and Tesla is currently selling more than Volkswagen, Ford, Rivian, Mercedes, and Toyota combined. Interesting. The big dog is BYD though. Twice as many as 2nd place Tesla.
- foobarian 9mo ago
  Figured that metric is for EV only, which is not that surprising. But even for overall sales it's #11 on the list for first 3 quarters of 2025, which is not too shabby: https://www.carpro.com/blog/2025-year-to-date-u.s-auto-sales-results https://www.carpro.com/blog/2025-year-to-date-u.s-auto-sales...
  - andsoitis 9mo ago
    > Figured that metric is for EV only, which is not that surprising. But it is stunning that legacy automakers are sticking to fossil fuels.
    - LunaSea 9mo ago
      The infrastructure just isn't there to make EVs interesting for a lot of people in the US and EU. They also know that this means that the EU will push the target date for the end of fossi fuel cars.
  - riffraff 9mo ago
    The problem is Tesla's valuation is overpriced even if they owned 100% of the car market, their P/E ratio is > 300. "But it's high margin", sure it is, but so is Ferrari, and their P/E is 30-40.
- andsoitis 9mo ago
  > Was curious though so I looked it up and Tesla is currently selling more than Volkswagen, Ford, Rivian, Mercedes, and Toyota combined. Interesting. Indeed. Global 2024 data shows Tesla selling about 1.8M. EV's only by that group of automakers comes to around 1.5M. Toyota and Ford are hybrid-first, not EV. VW is the only legacy automaker that comes near Tesla's EV scale. Mercedes prioritizes margin over volume. Rivian is capacity-limited.
- bagels 9mo ago
  EVs or vehicles generally?
epistasis 9mo ago
Ah, but you missed the pivot, Tesla is no longer an EV maker, it's now a robotics company. This fully explains the market valuation, of course! Never mind a swarm of retail investors driven by a news media that covered Musk as if he were Tony Stark for years, this market cap is fully based on solid fundamental analysis of expected future revenue.
- ModernMech 9mo ago
  The pivot to robotics came exactly when it became clear Tesla is a failed car company. The valuation is not based on solid fundamental analysis of expected future revenue in robotics, because the company is lead by someone who fundamentally does not understand robotics (as evidenced by his continued failure to deliver FSD and robo taxis, his wrongheaded and stubborn insistence on vision-only sensing, and his completely backwards belief that sensor fusion makes belief estimates worse). Tesla's track record on autonomy and robotics is they are responsible for the first autonomous robot death, they invented something they dub "mecha-hitler" due to how vile it is, and they promised a product capable of driving across the US 8 years ago but still can't deliver it today. So no, the valuation is not solid, it's vapor.
zdragnar 9mo ago
This is an interesting take, considering several EVs from traditional manufacturers have been canned entirely.
- Tiktaalik 9mo ago
  The EV market is booming outside of NA. EV growth share in Europe is remarkable and Tesla is flatlining there while everyone else advances.
  - iknowstuff 9mo ago
    Lack of FSD in Europe. If they manage to get it approved in 2026 expect that to reverse.
    - apexalpha 9mo ago
      Probably also the no lack of Nazi salutes on TV and his political ‘escapades’.
      - iknowstuff 9mo ago
        He appeared at an AfD thing
        apexalpha 9mo ago
        I am well aware that clip mustve been played thousands of times. He really had no clue how politics work here. The people voting Afd et al. are NOT people buying EVs. The venn diagram of those groups is two circles.
        delusional 9mo ago
        > He really had no clue how politics work here. Its not like this differs from the US. Neither white supremacists (the "alt right") nor mainstream republicans were buying his cars. You should be open to the possibility that he isn't clueless, he might actually just be a racist authoritarian.

by fsh 9mo ago

renewiltord 9mo ago

The declining sales is a concern. Was curious though so I looked it up and Tesla is currently selling more than Volkswagen, Ford, Rivian, Mercedes, and Toyota combined. Interesting. The big dog is BYD though. Twice as many as 2nd place Tesla.

foobarian 9mo ago
Figured that metric is for EV only, which is not that surprising. But even for overall sales it's #11 on the list for first 3 quarters of 2025, which is not too shabby: https://www.carpro.com/blog/2025-year-to-date-u.s-auto-sales-results https://www.carpro.com/blog/2025-year-to-date-u.s-auto-sales...
- andsoitis 9mo ago
  > Figured that metric is for EV only, which is not that surprising. But it is stunning that legacy automakers are sticking to fossil fuels.
  - LunaSea 9mo ago
    The infrastructure just isn't there to make EVs interesting for a lot of people in the US and EU. They also know that this means that the EU will push the target date for the end of fossi fuel cars.
- riffraff 9mo ago
  The problem is Tesla's valuation is overpriced even if they owned 100% of the car market, their P/E ratio is > 300. "But it's high margin", sure it is, but so is Ferrari, and their P/E is 30-40.
andsoitis 9mo ago
> Was curious though so I looked it up and Tesla is currently selling more than Volkswagen, Ford, Rivian, Mercedes, and Toyota combined. Interesting. Indeed. Global 2024 data shows Tesla selling about 1.8M. EV's only by that group of automakers comes to around 1.5M. Toyota and Ford are hybrid-first, not EV. VW is the only legacy automaker that comes near Tesla's EV scale. Mercedes prioritizes margin over volume. Rivian is capacity-limited.
bagels 9mo ago
EVs or vehicles generally?

epistasis 9mo ago

Ah, but you missed the pivot, Tesla is no longer an EV maker, it's now a robotics company. This fully explains the market valuation, of course! Never mind a swarm of retail investors driven by a news media that covered Musk as if he were Tony Stark for years, this market cap is fully based on solid fundamental analysis of expected future revenue.

ModernMech 9mo ago
The pivot to robotics came exactly when it became clear Tesla is a failed car company. The valuation is not based on solid fundamental analysis of expected future revenue in robotics, because the company is lead by someone who fundamentally does not understand robotics (as evidenced by his continued failure to deliver FSD and robo taxis, his wrongheaded and stubborn insistence on vision-only sensing, and his completely backwards belief that sensor fusion makes belief estimates worse). Tesla's track record on autonomy and robotics is they are responsible for the first autonomous robot death, they invented something they dub "mecha-hitler" due to how vile it is, and they promised a product capable of driving across the US 8 years ago but still can't deliver it today. So no, the valuation is not solid, it's vapor.

zdragnar 9mo ago

This is an interesting take, considering several EVs from traditional manufacturers have been canned entirely.

Tiktaalik 9mo ago
The EV market is booming outside of NA. EV growth share in Europe is remarkable and Tesla is flatlining there while everyone else advances.
- iknowstuff 9mo ago
  Lack of FSD in Europe. If they manage to get it approved in 2026 expect that to reverse.
  - apexalpha 9mo ago
    Probably also the no lack of Nazi salutes on TV and his political ‘escapades’.
    - iknowstuff 9mo ago
      He appeared at an AfD thing
      - apexalpha 9mo ago
        I am well aware that clip mustve been played thousands of times. He really had no clue how politics work here. The people voting Afd et al. are NOT people buying EVs. The venn diagram of those groups is two circles.
        delusional 9mo ago
        > He really had no clue how politics work here. Its not like this differs from the US. Neither white supremacists (the "alt right") nor mainstream republicans were buying his cars. You should be open to the possibility that he isn't clueless, he might actually just be a racist authoritarian.