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It has delivered a better ROI in the same way a ponzi scheme can deliver higher ROI.

andsoitis 10mo ago
> It has delivered a better ROI in the same way a ponzi scheme can deliver higher ROI. It sounds like you're arguing that high valuation compared to fundamentals means buyers expect gains from future buyers paying more sounds like a Ponzi, but it isn't, it is speculation. The comparison doesn't make sense. Some surface features of speculative markets can look Ponzi-like, but the underlying mechanics are very different. A Ponzi-scheme returns to earlier participants directly from money contributed by later participants, with no real underlying business generating value. In a Ponzi-scheme, there is no real product (or it is irrelevant), the operator controls payouts, and investors are promised steady or guaranteed returns. None of that applies to Tesla stock. Ponzi-schemes hide losses, smooth returns, collapse suddenly. Tesla stock is volatile, has had large drawdowns, and public reflects bad news, margin compression, demand shifts. Volatility is a sign of a market, not a Ponzi.
- boroboro4 10mo ago
  Mechanics is exactly the same - it's not Tesla revenues driving returns for investors, it's new investors putting their money into the stock at very high price.
  - andsoitis 10mo ago
    If you believe Tesla is a Ponzi scheme then you also believe that the SEC is either knowingly keeping a Ponzi scheme going (and it is getting included in indexes) OR the SEC doesn’t know OR you are wrong.
- majormajor 10mo ago
  > In a Ponzi-scheme, there is no real product (or it is irrelevant) This part is the smell. "It's not a car company, it's a AI/Robot/whatever company." The valuation is supposedly justified by a future product that perpetually fails to materialize. It's obviously not a classical Ponzi scheme in the mechanical sense where payouts are controlled by a central party. It has major Ponzi vibes though, with new money continuing to reward old money even though the fundamentals and products haven't done anything to justify that continued influx - only the hype has.
  - stingraycharles 10mo ago
    Yeah, the target keeps moving. Earlier it was “it’s not a car company, it’s a battery company”. Then it was all about FSD and robotaxis. Now that that is not working out, it’s going to be a robot company. The actual underlying product, the cars, don’t match the crazy valuation.
  - andsoitis 10mo ago
    Ponzi schemes don’t make $100B revenue, traded on the stock exchange, or make profit.
    - grim_io 10mo ago
      the clever ones at least avoid the stock exchange. Generating revenue and profit at the expense of the participants is literally the ponzi scheme.
  - lanstin 10mo ago
    It also has the characteristics that most of the dupes are not pleased that the fraud was discovered to be a fraud. People swindled by Madoff swore that it was all legit. It's not easy to give up a belief one has held fervently for years.
- knuppar 10mo ago
  > collapse suddenly If BYD was in the US I think we could check this box reeeeaaally quickly. It would make Tesla irrelevant.
  - andsoitis 10mo ago
    > If BYD was in the US I think we could check this box reeeeaaally quickly. It would make Tesla irrelevant. Why? What's your logic?
    - vkou 10mo ago
      BYD makes good, cheap cars. There's a reason why the US raised every protectionist barrier against it - it would destroy Detroit.
    - array_key_first 10mo ago
      The cars are higher quality and, more importantly, cheaper. US manufacturers can't make a cheap car to save their lives. The average age of cars on US roads is now 13 years, nobody can afford new cars. There's a huge market opportunity here that all our manufacturers are missing, seemingly on purpose. BYD, and others, would absolutely sweep the competition.
      - overfeed 10mo ago
        > US manufacturers can't make a cheap car to save their lives. They have a fiduciary duty to their shareholders to never make low-margin (read "cheap") cars. If someone is looking for a competitive automotive market, they won't find it in the US. The financial engineering is world-class though.
      - refurb 10mo ago
        High quality? I’ve ridden in several. It’s an all plastic deal with a flimsy feel. The ride is horrible and from the reviews I e read the handling is terrible.
        10mo ago

> It has delivered a better ROI in the same way a ponzi scheme can deliver higher ROI. It sounds like you're arguing that high valuation compared to fundamentals means buyers expect gains from future buyers paying more sounds like a Ponzi, but it isn't, it is speculation. The comparison doesn't make sense. Some surface features of speculative markets can look Ponzi-like, but the underlying mechanics are very different. A Ponzi-scheme returns to earlier participants directly from money contributed by later participants, with no real underlying business generating value. In a Ponzi-scheme, there is no real product (or it is irrelevant), the operator controls payouts, and investors are promised steady or guaranteed returns. None of that applies to Tesla stock. Ponzi-schemes hide losses, smooth returns, collapse suddenly. Tesla stock is volatile, has had large drawdowns, and public reflects bad news, margin compression, demand shifts. Volatility is a sign of a market, not a Ponzi.

boroboro4 10mo ago
Mechanics is exactly the same - it's not Tesla revenues driving returns for investors, it's new investors putting their money into the stock at very high price.
- andsoitis 10mo ago
  If you believe Tesla is a Ponzi scheme then you also believe that the SEC is either knowingly keeping a Ponzi scheme going (and it is getting included in indexes) OR the SEC doesn’t know OR you are wrong.
majormajor 10mo ago
> In a Ponzi-scheme, there is no real product (or it is irrelevant) This part is the smell. "It's not a car company, it's a AI/Robot/whatever company." The valuation is supposedly justified by a future product that perpetually fails to materialize. It's obviously not a classical Ponzi scheme in the mechanical sense where payouts are controlled by a central party. It has major Ponzi vibes though, with new money continuing to reward old money even though the fundamentals and products haven't done anything to justify that continued influx - only the hype has.
- stingraycharles 10mo ago
  Yeah, the target keeps moving. Earlier it was “it’s not a car company, it’s a battery company”. Then it was all about FSD and robotaxis. Now that that is not working out, it’s going to be a robot company. The actual underlying product, the cars, don’t match the crazy valuation.
- andsoitis 10mo ago
  Ponzi schemes don’t make $100B revenue, traded on the stock exchange, or make profit.
  - grim_io 10mo ago
    the clever ones at least avoid the stock exchange. Generating revenue and profit at the expense of the participants is literally the ponzi scheme.
- lanstin 10mo ago
  It also has the characteristics that most of the dupes are not pleased that the fraud was discovered to be a fraud. People swindled by Madoff swore that it was all legit. It's not easy to give up a belief one has held fervently for years.
knuppar 10mo ago
> collapse suddenly If BYD was in the US I think we could check this box reeeeaaally quickly. It would make Tesla irrelevant.
- andsoitis 10mo ago
  > If BYD was in the US I think we could check this box reeeeaaally quickly. It would make Tesla irrelevant. Why? What's your logic?
  - vkou 10mo ago
    BYD makes good, cheap cars. There's a reason why the US raised every protectionist barrier against it - it would destroy Detroit.
  - array_key_first 10mo ago
    The cars are higher quality and, more importantly, cheaper. US manufacturers can't make a cheap car to save their lives. The average age of cars on US roads is now 13 years, nobody can afford new cars. There's a huge market opportunity here that all our manufacturers are missing, seemingly on purpose. BYD, and others, would absolutely sweep the competition.
    - overfeed 10mo ago
      > US manufacturers can't make a cheap car to save their lives. They have a fiduciary duty to their shareholders to never make low-margin (read "cheap") cars. If someone is looking for a competitive automotive market, they won't find it in the US. The financial engineering is world-class though.
    - refurb 10mo ago
      High quality? I’ve ridden in several. It’s an all plastic deal with a flimsy feel. The ride is horrible and from the reviews I e read the handling is terrible.
      - 10mo ago