3 ms·

I don't think Tesla stock has traded on fundamentals for a while.

by magic_man 9mo ago

nxm 9mo ago
Short it then
- toomuchtodo 9mo ago
  Can't win against irrational exuberance and fraud that isn't prosecuted in the capital markets ("voting machine vs weighing machine"). Just have to wait for failure of the enterprise, equity wipeout, and recapitalization under better human management (if you're optimizing for a company that actually manufacturers and sells a product vs a shell to pump a stock and enrich the board members who enable him with a lack of corporate governance). The factories and Supercharger network will remain intact under a reorganization. Musk can move money around SpaceX/Tesla/XAI/whatever the next story to investors is to prop up valuations and share prices, but can he win against China's clean tech export machine? Long term, I think not (China is a third of global manufacturing capacity as of this comment, and the world is their TAM). So he'll do the tech bro thing, giving talks, going to demo days, spending his wealth on pet projects, etc, while innovators innovate and point the firehose of these products at the world. Are you going to talk people out of his religion? Unlikely. The faithful will remain so, because that's how the human brain sometimes operates. Ember Energy: China Cleantech Exports Data Explorer - https://ember-energy.org/data/china-cleantech-exports-data-explorer/ https://ember-energy.org/data/china-cleantech-exports-data-e... (updated monthly) ("In 2024, China produced around 80% of the world’s solar PV modules and battery cells, and 70% of electric vehicles.") US warns China overproducing EVs, batteries, semiconductors for global dominance - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41909869 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41909869 - October 2024 China's Batteries Are Now Cheap Enough to Power Huge Shifts - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40954508 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40954508 - July 2024 China Already Makes as Many Batteries as the Entire World Wants - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40933773 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40933773 - July 2024 (as of this comment, ~50% of light vehicle sales in China are NEVs [battery electric of plug in hybrid] while exporting ~6M units/year, more than total annual US light vehicle sales)
- oblio 9mo ago
  Timing shorts is one of the hardest problems in human history. It doesn't mean that Tesla stock won't crash unless it actually delivers a Holy Grail. Which is supremely unlikely
- swiftcoder 9mo ago
  > Short it then Just because stock is trading on memes, doesn't mean it can't keep doing so well past your solvency to short it...
- bigyabai 9mo ago
  > stock value isn't rooted in reality > "Short it then" I can smell your personal finance through the screen.
- bdcravens 9mo ago
  "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"
- lawn 9mo ago
  Such as lazy excuse. The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Meaning you also need to get the timing just right otherwise you'll lose big, even if Tesla crashes and burns to zero just after.
elAhmo 9mo ago
Of course it hasn't, it is a cult of personality.
SoftTalker 9mo ago
Or ever.

I don't think Tesla stock has traded on fundamentals for a while.

nxm 9mo ago

Short it then

toomuchtodo 9mo ago
Can't win against irrational exuberance and fraud that isn't prosecuted in the capital markets ("voting machine vs weighing machine"). Just have to wait for failure of the enterprise, equity wipeout, and recapitalization under better human management (if you're optimizing for a company that actually manufacturers and sells a product vs a shell to pump a stock and enrich the board members who enable him with a lack of corporate governance). The factories and Supercharger network will remain intact under a reorganization. Musk can move money around SpaceX/Tesla/XAI/whatever the next story to investors is to prop up valuations and share prices, but can he win against China's clean tech export machine? Long term, I think not (China is a third of global manufacturing capacity as of this comment, and the world is their TAM). So he'll do the tech bro thing, giving talks, going to demo days, spending his wealth on pet projects, etc, while innovators innovate and point the firehose of these products at the world. Are you going to talk people out of his religion? Unlikely. The faithful will remain so, because that's how the human brain sometimes operates. Ember Energy: China Cleantech Exports Data Explorer - https://ember-energy.org/data/china-cleantech-exports-data-explorer/ https://ember-energy.org/data/china-cleantech-exports-data-e... (updated monthly) ("In 2024, China produced around 80% of the world’s solar PV modules and battery cells, and 70% of electric vehicles.") US warns China overproducing EVs, batteries, semiconductors for global dominance - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41909869 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41909869 - October 2024 China's Batteries Are Now Cheap Enough to Power Huge Shifts - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40954508 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40954508 - July 2024 China Already Makes as Many Batteries as the Entire World Wants - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40933773 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40933773 - July 2024 (as of this comment, ~50% of light vehicle sales in China are NEVs [battery electric of plug in hybrid] while exporting ~6M units/year, more than total annual US light vehicle sales)
oblio 9mo ago
Timing shorts is one of the hardest problems in human history. It doesn't mean that Tesla stock won't crash unless it actually delivers a Holy Grail. Which is supremely unlikely
swiftcoder 9mo ago
> Short it then Just because stock is trading on memes, doesn't mean it can't keep doing so well past your solvency to short it...
bigyabai 9mo ago
> stock value isn't rooted in reality > "Short it then" I can smell your personal finance through the screen.
bdcravens 9mo ago
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"
lawn 9mo ago
Such as lazy excuse. The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Meaning you also need to get the timing just right otherwise you'll lose big, even if Tesla crashes and burns to zero just after.

elAhmo 9mo ago

Of course it hasn't, it is a cult of personality.

SoftTalker 9mo ago

Or ever.