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You don't think that as prices go up, the supply might also go up, and the equilibrium price will be maintained? And possibly even a lower equilibrium will be

by jstanley 10mo ago

You don't think that as prices go up, the supply might also go up, and the equilibrium price will be maintained? And possibly even a lower equilibrium will be reached due to greater economies of scale.

gehatare 10mo ago
Is there any reason to believe that this will happen? Prices of graphic cards only went down after the crypto boom went down again.
- InsideOutSanta 10mo ago
  And they never went down to pre-crypto pricing. For quite a while, Intel was the only company producing reasonably specced GPUs at somewhat reasonable prices.
marcyb5st 10mo ago
That assumes that supply production means can scale up instantly. Fabs for high end chips don't and usually take years from foundations being laid to First chip out of the production line. In the interim, yeah, they will force prices up. Additionally those fabs cost billions. Given the lead time I mentioned a lot of companies won't start building them right away since the risk of demand going away is high and the ROI in those cases might become unreachable
- Imustaskforhelp 10mo ago
  I think one of these fab compaies have already invested/talked about investing 700 BILLION dollars (I think it was micron? but I am not sure) I have heard that in the fab making industry, things moves in cycles and this cycle has been repeated so many times and the reason that ram is so expensive was that at one time during covid there was shortage so they built more factories and they built so so many that these companies took a hit in stocks so they then went and closed and at just the bottom of their factory production levels, the AI bubble started to pop in and need their ram's and now they are once again increasing factory levels And after the supply due to AI gets closed with the additional compute etc., I doubt it I think that within 2-3 or maybe 4 years of timeframe ram will get cheaper imo. The problem is, if someone can fill the market till that time.
  - cubefox 10mo ago
    The article said a new RAM factory will open in 2027.
deleted 10mo ago
[deleted]
sph 10mo ago
> You don't think that as prices go up, the supply might also go up, and the equilibrium price will be maintained? This assumes infinite and uniformly distributed resources as well as no artificial factors such as lobbying, corruption, taxation or legislation which might favour one entity over the other. The dream of free market exists only in a vacuum free from the constraints of reality.

gehatare 10mo ago

Is there any reason to believe that this will happen? Prices of graphic cards only went down after the crypto boom went down again.

InsideOutSanta 10mo ago
And they never went down to pre-crypto pricing. For quite a while, Intel was the only company producing reasonably specced GPUs at somewhat reasonable prices.

marcyb5st 10mo ago

That assumes that supply production means can scale up instantly. Fabs for high end chips don't and usually take years from foundations being laid to First chip out of the production line. In the interim, yeah, they will force prices up. Additionally those fabs cost billions. Given the lead time I mentioned a lot of companies won't start building them right away since the risk of demand going away is high and the ROI in those cases might become unreachable

Imustaskforhelp 10mo ago
I think one of these fab compaies have already invested/talked about investing 700 BILLION dollars (I think it was micron? but I am not sure) I have heard that in the fab making industry, things moves in cycles and this cycle has been repeated so many times and the reason that ram is so expensive was that at one time during covid there was shortage so they built more factories and they built so so many that these companies took a hit in stocks so they then went and closed and at just the bottom of their factory production levels, the AI bubble started to pop in and need their ram's and now they are once again increasing factory levels And after the supply due to AI gets closed with the additional compute etc., I doubt it I think that within 2-3 or maybe 4 years of timeframe ram will get cheaper imo. The problem is, if someone can fill the market till that time.
- cubefox 10mo ago
  The article said a new RAM factory will open in 2027.

deleted 10mo ago

[deleted]

sph 10mo ago

> You don't think that as prices go up, the supply might also go up, and the equilibrium price will be maintained? This assumes infinite and uniformly distributed resources as well as no artificial factors such as lobbying, corruption, taxation or legislation which might favour one entity over the other. The dream of free market exists only in a vacuum free from the constraints of reality.